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Uk Data Rics House Price Balance Dives To Lowest Since Apr’09

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I tend to be miles behind the curve on these announcements but can't find anything on the site now and it's too yumalicious to ignore. Apologies if this is a repeat:

http://www.forexlive.com/144487/all/uk-data-rics-house-price-balance-dives-to-lowest-since-apr09

–RICS: Net -49% Surveyors Saw UK House Prices Rise in Oct

–RICS: Oct House Price Balance Lowest Since April 2009

–RICS: Oct New buyers Enquiries Balance -12 Vs -2 Sep

–RICS: Oct Sales-to-Stocks Ratio 22.6% Vs Sep’s 24.2%

–RICS: Oct House Price Balance Falls Faster Than Median -40.0 Forecast

LONDON (MNI) – Falling UK house prices became much more

widespread in the three months through October, with the balance of

surveyors reporting price declines hitting its lowest level since April

2009.

The October Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors’ survey shows a

precipitate fall in the headline price balance, but also found evidence

of a declining supply of new properties coming to the market, which

could cushion future house price falls.

A net 49% of surveyors reported a price fall in the three months

through October, compared with 36% in September and 32% in August. The

net 49% reporting falls was the weakest price balance reading since

April 2009, and exceeded analysts’ median forecast for a 40% outturns.

The expected prices balance for the next three months declined,

showing a net 42% of surveyors predicting declines.

The survey found evidence of softening demand in the UK housing

market. The new buyers enquiries balance fell to -12 from -2 in

September. October housing transaction levels, measured by average sales

per surveyor, fell to 15.2 in October from September’s 16.7.

The October sales-to-stocks ratio, measuring properties sold

relative to those on surveyors’ books, fell to 22.6% from September’s

24.2%.

While buyer demand appears to be weakening, so does housing supply.

RICS found the new instructions balance fell to -4% in October from

22% in September.

RICS said the fall in new stock coming onto the market “could, if

sustained, lessen the downward pressure on prices in the coming months.”

“Dramatic falls are likely to be limited by a gradual drying up of

stock coming to the market,” Jeremy Leaf, RICS spokesperson, said.

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I do think this lack of supply (touched on in the article) coupled with changes in the County Court Procedure Rules over possession will mean lenders having to give defaulting borrowers every chance to save their home, will cause the market to drift slowly downhill. Small demand with equally small supply. If borrowers have to resort to interest only a lender will have no real alternative but to grant it and so they will get a stay of execution.

With low interest rates and the British obsession with house prices I will suspect continue to keep demand of some sort going, with investors attracted by the higher yield and the tangible nature of property compared to anything else they can invest in.

However the longer the low interest rates prevail the more fragile the whole edifice becomes. A 2-3% increase in base rates and there really will be carnage. I am sure the government are aware of it and it seems more and more likely that interest rates will have to stay where they are.

Edited by numpty

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if supply really is about to dry up then, with demand so low, transaction volumes will surely plumb new depths?

bye bye to a few more EAs?

Yep. And if you look at RICS surveys for 07/08 supply was falling from Q3/Q4 07 all the way until late 2009 it took well over a year before the falling supply had any effect and by that time prices had dropped 20%. Also you have to expect stock coming to Market to dry up over the winter.

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I've seen a decrease in supply in the past few weeks but that is a minor decrease on the massive increase I saw over the past few months. The number of properties up for sale on RM in my target areas have nearly doubled in 10 months. They've gone down a couple of percent so far. I think the supply of new properties to market will continue to dry up but the total up for sale won't come down, just the prices. What I'm also seeing is the number up for rent going up now and rents starting to come down as well. It feels like 2007 all over again but starting from a more desperate position.

Edit to add: the type of property coming up for rent seems to be private houses at lower rents than the BTL brigade (judging from the photos) and they are more inclined to reduce the asking rent more quickly as well.

Edited by Pytyr

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if supply really is about to dry up then, with demand so low, transaction volumes will surely plumb new depths?

bye bye to a few more EAs?

EAs won't go down without a fight though. in my area for example foxtons has just dropped a flat from 360 to 325k. perhaps EAs will become HPC buddies? ~They have to eat!

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This tallies with what I'm seeing in Berkshire. Supply has once again all but dried up. However annoyingly eas are still having some success selling at marginally lower prices. Within 10% of peak is not unusual. Without additional supply the advantage buyers have is considerably diminished. In fact last time there was a supply crunch insanely prices here rose quickly. Now there's no evidence of that this time. In my view without interest rate rises there will be no hpc here. There's enough I'll gotten gains to keep the plates spinning for a decade. Only when property or outstanding debt becomes a millstone due to debt servicing costs will anything change.

Eas here mainly retooled to become leggings focused. As much as I'd like to see it I don't think many will go bust. As last time they'll bin some staff, lower their costs and hope for spring bounce. Hopefully it won't come.

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I've seen a decrease in supply in the past few weeks but that is a minor decrease on the massive increase I saw over the past few months. The number of properties up for sale on RM in my target areas have nearly doubled in 10 months. They've gone down a couple of percent so far. I think the supply of new properties to market will continue to dry up but the total up for sale won't come down, just the prices. What I'm also seeing is the number up for rent going up now and rents starting to come down as well. It feels like 2007 all over again but starting from a more desperate position.

My area we are probably down to levels of about a month ago which is to be expected as it's winter.

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/houseprices/8117329/Housing-market-falls-further-as-first-time-buyers-shut-out.html

The housing market is in its worst state for 18 months, according to a leading house price survey which suggested a "whole generation" of first time buyers were being shut out.

Banks and building societies inability to offer affordable mortgages to people trying to get on the property ladder was causing the housing market to slide substantially, according to the influential monthly survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors.

Estate agents and surveyors were at their most gloomy since April 2009, with far more people reporting that house prices had fallen over the previous three months than had risen. In total the "balance" in October was -49, down from -36 back in September.

This was the first survey since the Coalition Government's Sending Review, and many of the property professionals suggested that the market had taken a dive, as potential house-hunters came to terms with the extent of the cuts.

They also complained that how banks and building societies – heeding Government warnings to build up their balance sheets – still insisted on very large deposits and strict credit checks from first time buyers.

Ian Briggs a fellow of RICS at Dacre, Son & Hartley in Ilkley, said: "The collapse in mortgage lending has resulted in an essentially cash market. Quite why the government seems content to permit the lenders to effectively exclude an entire generation from property ownership remains a mystery."

David Boyden of Boydens, in Frinton-on-Sea, Essex, said starkly: "I Have not seen a first-time buyer for six months."

David Jones, of Jones & Redfearn in Rhyl, said: "Until the banks start lending sensibly the market will remain sluggish. First time buyers can't buy if they can't borrow and it they're not buying the market can't recover.

"This is not 'rocket science' it's 'pocket science'. Get the money out of the bankers pockets and into mortgages. Sadly, talk from politicians is cheap but mortgages aren't."exactly that's the problem you nob!

The Council of Mortgage Lenders has warned that the number of first time buyers being shut out of the market meant that home owners were increasingly older, with home ownership in decline.

Last week it said: “Since 2003, we have seen the first significant decline in home-ownership. And in the coming years, the benefits of owner-occupation – and the wealth it delivers – will increasingly be concentrated in the hands of those in their 40s, 50s and 60s.”

The RICS survey also said there was a fall in the number of potential house buyers walking in through the doors of estate agents, as well as a drop in the number of people tyring to sell their property, raising fears that the market was drying up as it did during the crash of 2008.

Chris Highton of Allied Surveyors Scotland in Selkirk, said: "It is now clear that the usual upturn after the summer holidays is not happening this year. The number of properties going to the market has dropped off significantly and the bottom end of the market remains dire, with very few first time buyers able to obtain mortgage funds."

Oh no those nasty banks won't lend money unless people can afford to repay it! This is a disgrace! The government must do something! Jesus Christ someone think of the HPI!!

Some proples stupidity is unbelievable! ******ing twats!

Edit: fixed profanities

Edited by Pent Up

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My local BBC SW news said the RIC's survey was a boost for the local area stating 15% more respondents reporting a rise than the rest of the UK, I take it someone has been creative with the statistics, or are we booming down here (despite no evidence in a normally local hotspot)?

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Sounds like the news is catching up with the market. I am still tracking a number of potential targets in my area and just saw a nice 3 bed detached overlooking the sea drop from £285k to £265k. Easy £320 in the peak days.

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/11824126?search_identifier=4fb9ac538bc4f66a577c10ca788a03fc

Same house on with a different agent:

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/13508753?search_identifier=5415daf1b47682466f2e9ee842557841

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With both supply and demand falling, transaction activity is set to remain at relatively flat levels for the foreseeable future,” RICS spokesman Jeremy Leaf said in a statement. “A subdued housing market is not good news for an economy which requires a high degree of mobility to
take advantage of job opportunities
.”

What job opportunities--the market is just starting top shed jobs?

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My local BBC SW news said the RIC's survey was a boost for the local area stating 15% more respondents reporting a rise than the rest of the UK, I take it someone has been creative with the statistics, or are we booming down here (despite no evidence in a normally local hotspot)?

You won't know until you see the actual report when it comes out. But if those reporting a rise this month nationally is the same as last month then it's 6% so 15% more than 6 is 7. Doesn't sound like good news to me.

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Sounds like the news is catching up with the market.....

yes, I agree, sellers who really do want to sell, seem to be slowly catching up with the news.

For example, look at the reduction on this one.

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/1879341?search_identifier=decaefae2c08f3203ddbb9faee79e57c

Also interestingly, my property bee shows me that this property sold in August 2009 when the asking price was £995,000, but the sale fell through in January 2010, and the asking price is now down to £500,000.

History

date event

04 November 2010 * Price changed: from '£795,000' to '£500,000'

12 August 2010 * Price changed: from '£895,000' to '£795,000'

04 May 2010 * Price changed: from '£995,000' to '£895,000'

30 January 2010 * Status changed: from 'Sold STC' to 'Available'

18 August 2009 * Status changed: from 'Available' to 'Sold STC'

29 October 2008 * Price changed: from '£1,200,000' to '£995,000'

10 May 2008 * Initial entry found.

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I m going to e-mail all the EA's in that times article (see Pent Up's post) who are moaning about the lack of mortgage availability and remind them that it is not mortgage funding that is the problem it's the cost of the houses.

If I get any replies i'll post them here.

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yes, I agree, sellers who really do want to sell, seem to be slowly catching up with the news.

For example, look at the reduction on this one.

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/1879341?search_identifier=decaefae2c08f3203ddbb9faee79e57c

Also interestingly, my property bee shows me that this property sold in August 2009 when the asking price was £995,000, but the sale fell through in January 2010, and the asking price is now down to £500,000.

History

date event

04 November 2010 * Price changed: from '£795,000' to '£500,000'

12 August 2010 * Price changed: from '£895,000' to '£795,000'

04 May 2010 * Price changed: from '£995,000' to '£895,000'

30 January 2010 * Status changed: from 'Sold STC' to 'Available'

18 August 2009 * Status changed: from 'Available' to 'Sold STC'

29 October 2008 * Price changed: from '£1,200,000' to '£995,000'

10 May 2008 * Initial entry found.

Lovely stuff. And what we need to see more of. Genuine forced sale.

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"Eas here mainly retooled to become leggings focused. As much as I'd like to see it I don't think many will go bust. As last time they'll bin some staff, lower their costs and hope for spring bounce. Hopefully it won't come".

Leggings focused is good,lot of shady EA's staring at your leggings,because there too ashamed to look you in the eyes. :P

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yes, I agree, sellers who really do want to sell, seem to be slowly catching up with the news.

For example, look at the reduction on this one.

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/1879341?search_identifier=decaefae2c08f3203ddbb9faee79e57c

Also interestingly, my property bee shows me that this property sold in August 2009 when the asking price was £995,000, but the sale fell through in January 2010, and the asking price is now down to £500,000.

History

date event

04 November 2010 * Price changed: from '£795,000' to '£500,000'

12 August 2010 * Price changed: from '£895,000' to '£795,000'

04 May 2010 * Price changed: from '£995,000' to '£895,000'

30 January 2010 * Status changed: from 'Sold STC' to 'Available'

18 August 2009 * Status changed: from 'Available' to 'Sold STC'

29 October 2008 * Price changed: from '£1,200,000' to '£995,000'

10 May 2008 * Initial entry found.

That is one hell of a reduction even though it's taken two years! Any idea of what it has previously sold for?

I m going to e-mail all the EA's in that times article (see Pent Up's post) who are moaning about the lack of mortgage availability and remind them that it is not mortgage funding that is the problem it's the cost of the houses.

If I get any replies i'll post them here.

Excellent good plan!

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yes, I agree, sellers who really do want to sell, seem to be slowly catching up with the news.

For example, look at the reduction on this one.

That's alot of house for the ££ (compared to what else is out there).. Though you'd still have to be on about £130k a year to afford it, and I don't think there are many of those earners around that area (especially now government jobs are being cut)

Edited by exiges

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That is one hell of a reduction even though it's taken two years! Any idea of what it has previously sold for?

Yes, just found it on nethouseprices.

http://www.nethouseprices.com/index.php?con=sold_prices_street_detail&street=TREPIT+ROAD&locality=WICK&town=COWBRIDGE&cCode=EW&year=All&house_style=All&house_age=All&search_radius=&outcode=CF71&incode=7QL

Maes-yr-haf, Trepit Road,

Wick,

Cowbridge,

The Vale Of Glamorgan,

CF71 7QL £455,000

Detached

Freehold

Not New Build 16-Jul-2001

Map (CF71 7QL)

Maes-yr-haf, Trepit Road,

Wick,

Cowbridge,

The Vale Of Glamorgan,

CF71 7QL £400,000

Detached

Freehold

Not New Build 10-Feb-2000

Map (CF71 7QL)

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Yes, just found it on nethouseprices.

http://www.nethouseprices.com/index.php?con=sold_prices_street_detail&street=TREPIT+ROAD&locality=WICK&town=COWBRIDGE&cCode=EW&year=All&house_style=All&house_age=All&search_radius=&outcode=CF71&incode=7QL

Maes-yr-haf, Trepit Road,

Wick,

Cowbridge,

The Vale Of Glamorgan,

CF71 7QL £455,000

Detached

Freehold

Not New Build 16-Jul-2001

Map (CF71 7QL)

Maes-yr-haf, Trepit Road,

Wick,

Cowbridge,

The Vale Of Glamorgan,

CF71 7QL £400,000

Detached

Freehold

Not New Build 10-Feb-2000

Map (CF71 7QL)

Cowbridge is just in fantasy land IMPO. I think Wales is full of vastly over-priced properties thatstand little chance of selling now at all.

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Yes, just found it on nethouseprices.

http://www.nethouseprices.com/index.php?con=sold_prices_street_detail&street=TREPIT+ROAD&locality=WICK&town=COWBRIDGE&cCode=EW&year=All&house_style=All&house_age=All&search_radius=&outcode=CF71&incode=7QL

Maes-yr-haf, Trepit Road,

Wick,

Cowbridge,

The Vale Of Glamorgan,

CF71 7QL £455,000

Detached

Freehold

Not New Build 16-Jul-2001

Map (CF71 7QL)

Maes-yr-haf, Trepit Road,

Wick,

Cowbridge,

The Vale Of Glamorgan,

CF71 7QL £400,000

Detached

Freehold

Not New Build 10-Feb-2000

Map (CF71 7QL)

Wow not far off 2001 prices then. I'd be happy with that.

Full RICS report: http://www.rics.org/housingmarketsurvey

new instructions slip back marginally after recent gains

No need to worry there.

Edited by Pent Up

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The first chart makes for good viewing.

From Crapper & Haigh, Sheffield, South Yorkshire,

There is still activity within the market, but only for realistically priced properties.

That's what I like to hear! Now if only properties were realistically priced at 2000 levels.

P Airey MRICS, Paul Airey Chartered Surveyors, Sunderland, Tyne & Wear

Correctly valued property is selling. In our opinion values are at 2003 levels. We anticipate values to decline for a further 18 months.

Mmmmmm, bearish.

Edited by rented

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
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      • up 5%



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