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Will Trade Action Bring Back American Jobs?

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http://mpettis.com/2010/11/will-trade-action-bring-back-american-jobs/

Snippety

Clearly the US needs to move aggressively to shift global demand in its favor because most countries are doing just that – that is what beggar-they-neighbor means, and in a beggar-thy-neighbor world whoever does not respond will bear most of the brunt of the pain. There is no point pretending that we are not in a world in which nearly every country is cheating on trade, and will continue cheating as long as it is able.

But the wrong aggressive moves can easily make things worse. I guess this means that the whole trade problem really will best be resolved by an intelligent multilateral agreement, with no cheating and no free-riding, that involves a set of determined and coordinated policies that bring the imbalances down gradually over the next several years.

But that is asking for a lot. My guess? Trade disputes will be resolved through more tariffs and currency interventions. No one out there, it seems, is willing to do more than wish the imbalances away. Actually to take the painful rebalancing steps is still not on anyone’s agenda.

Geithner has proposed trade deficit/surplus limits as a % of GDP to achieve this (as I understand it). China and Germany it appears (as you would expect) are strongly opposed.

I wonder will we see any rapprochement at all next week at the G20 in Seoul?

A failure by China to respond positively will surely set us further down the road to retaliatory action by the US. Ben is trying to inflate surplus countries, but as we have seen from their rhetoric this week, they don't like it up 'em. I imagine it will have to get much worse before it gets better. The question is how much worse?

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http://mpettis.com/2...-american-jobs/

Snippety

Geithner has proposed trade deficit/surplus limits as a % of GDP to achieve this (as I understand it). China and Germany it appears (as you would expect) are strongly opposed.

I wonder will we see any rapprochement at all next week at the G20 in Seoul?

A failure by China to respond positively will surely set us further down the road to retaliatory action by the US. Ben is trying to inflate surplus countries, but as we have seen from their rhetoric this week, they don't like it up 'em. I imagine it will have to get much worse before it gets better. The question is how much worse?

course, the more government spending, the more surplus a nation could have.

and as Bernanke prints, so government spend is unlimited, so the more the US can fiddle.

US is toast.

Maybe China will be a nuclear wasteland.

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course, the more government spending, the more surplus a nation could have.

and as Bernanke prints, so government spend is unlimited, so the more the US can fiddle.

US is toast.

Maybe China will be a nuclear wasteland.

They could always default, but I don't think the banks like to encourage that idea amongst the general populace.  If its ok for Uncle Sam, it ok by me would be the cry.

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  • 153 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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