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guitarman001

Barrat Share Board Argument For House Price Rises

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Hi all,

I've been reading a lot on the BDEV share price and the bulletin board over at iii - seems I'm in a minority in that I feel house prices are yet to fall. Several investors seem to think that prices will only rise and that supply and demand is the key factor. I've tried to put forth some of my arguments (though I work during the day so hard to say anything of note). Check the discussions out here:

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?display=discussion&code=cotn%3ABDEV.L&it=le&submitted=1

Let me know if you've any great arguments/links to put forward as it seems I'm hitting a brick wall (unless of course these guys are correct).

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I'm looking at several of the builders as recovery stock (in the loooong term), assuming leveraged companies like BDEV and TW can survive. Companies like Persimmon are far more stable - I wonder how share prices will fare if house prices do plummet as they are already so very low.

I have a small stake in BDEV at 82p but I do think it will dip to 40ish before possibly recovering in years to come.

They seem a tad blinded in that, as you say, it's all about return on money. You can talk about numbers all day but what I'm telling them about are the moral side of things, the alternative arguments such as debt being they key to the boom (as opposed to supply and demand as such) and that social housing benefit has underpinned rent rises etc. I think I'm just going to watch how it goes and partake less in the discussion.

Recovery plays (Barrats, Lloyds) and dividends (yet to make a choice) are my investing styles mainly.

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I was a BDEV holder until recently, made a small profit when it was predictably moving up/down around 95-110p.

A long position makes sense to me even as a bear. The price is VERY low relative to the highs on 2007, and even if you dont think prices will recover for many years, its a share to stuff in the bottom draw and forget about. A classic recovery stock, but I moved my money to a non-housing recovery stock.

I have seen BDEV mentioned many times on this board, usually with scorn and certainty of further falls. If people are so sure of this why don't they go to IG, open an account, and short it?

I feel its pointless to have all this house price knowledge and research if you don't act on it.

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I was a BDEV holder until recently, made a small profit when it was predictably moving up/down around 95-110p.

A long position makes sense to me even as a bear. The price is VERY low relative to the highs on 2007, and even if you dont think prices will recover for many years, its a share to stuff in the bottom draw and forget about. A classic recovery stock, but I moved my money to a non-housing recovery stock.

I have seen BDEV mentioned many times on this board, usually with scorn and certainty of further falls. If people are so sure of this why don't they go to IG, open an account, and short it?

I feel its pointless to have all this house price knowledge and research if you don't act on it.

I considered shorting it a couple of months ago after reading that they were trading at a premium to their asset value. But I bottled it. Wish I had done. Would have a pretty penny now.

If rallies I'll reconsider.

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I considered shorting it a couple of months ago after reading that they were trading at a premium to their asset value. But I bottled it. Wish I had done. Would have a pretty penny now.

If rallies I'll reconsider.

I don't short, personally, as there are plenty of good longs out there :) I'm just more used to spotting long opportunities. Thing is with these builder shares - they have already fallen like 90%, and catching a falling knife requires great courage/recklessness.

(Having said this I bought YELL last week )

Edited by Fawkandles

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Time is money. It could bump along this trading range of £1 or so for months, and the money could be used better elsewhere. Wait until it starts moving up.

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  • 149 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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