Pole Posted November 5, 2010 Share Posted November 5, 2010 I've been following this board since 2005. Every year we heard that the real crash was just around the corner ('the fake show can't go on for much longer'). Yet, we had 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and now we have the year of 2010 which is now coming to an end... I'm perfectly aware of what happened in 2008 and understand how the crash was prevented by the government. I also know that we're slowly moving in the right direction (houses stopped rising and are falling here and there). So, my question is this: will 2011 deliver any substantial change in the nationwide trend of nominal house prices? (Assuming that IRs are kept at 0.5%) I know that sooner or later the crash will be here. But what if it's later rather than sooner... What if this 'phoney stabilisation' can be sustained for yet another 12 or 24 months...? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted November 5, 2010 Share Posted November 5, 2010 Have a look at the northampton area using prperty bee/rigthmove. Prices are tumbling. Sales are falling through. The sheeple have woken up. We are in the middle of the crash, people just dont realise this. When people can actually afford to buy the Haliwide indexes will drop through the floor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie Don't Surf Posted November 5, 2010 Share Posted November 5, 2010 Well, it's now or never. If we don't have a repeat of 2008 then I think it will be a massively drawn out affair lasting many, many years Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PopGun Posted November 5, 2010 Share Posted November 5, 2010 Have a look at the northampton area using prperty bee/rigthmove. Prices are tumbling. Sales are falling through. The sheeple have woken up. We are in the middle of the crash, people just dont realise this. When people can actually afford to buy the Haliwide indexes will drop through the floor. Until the BTL brigade face their waterloo, there will be no crash imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pablopatito Posted November 5, 2010 Share Posted November 5, 2010 I know that sooner or later the crash will be here. I don't think there will be a crash. Certainly not in the next couple of years. In my area (Northampton) activity has actually picked up over the last few weeks, despite what Count may say above. Its certainly not like the mini-crash of 2008 at the moment round my way. Its depressing me actually. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted November 5, 2010 Share Posted November 5, 2010 Yesterday's Halifax figures seem to have put a dampener on many of the comments in today's threads... Go back to posts four weeks ago and HP meltdown was apparently imminent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted November 5, 2010 Share Posted November 5, 2010 I've been following this board since 2005. Every year we heard that the real crash was just around the corner ('the fake show can't go on for much longer'). Yet, we had 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and now we have the year of 2010 which is now coming to an end... I'm perfectly aware of what happened in 2008 and understand how the crash was prevented by the government. I also know that we're slowly moving in the right direction (houses stopped rising and are falling here and there). So, my question is this: will 2011 deliver any substantial change in the nationwide trend of nominal house prices? (Assuming that IRs are kept at 0.5%) I know that sooner or later the crash will be here. But what if it's later rather than sooner... What if this 'phoney stabilisation' can be sustained for yet another 12 or 24 months...? It may or may not be, I don't care, I'll just keep renting until sentiment turns . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wealthy Posted November 5, 2010 Share Posted November 5, 2010 Your average punter does not think buying a house is a good idea, that is all that matters Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted November 5, 2010 Share Posted November 5, 2010 One major difference I've noticed is that when prices started coming down in 08, I heard a lot of house owners admitting it was needed and they had become too expensive (presumably they hadn't just bought). I'm not hearing anything like that from them in the light of the downturn now resuming. Anyone else experienced this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted November 5, 2010 Share Posted November 5, 2010 From where I stand, houses in my area are down 10-15% from peak. The pound is down 20% vs the dollar ($2.00 to $1.60). Add the 2 together and I suppose its a start of a crash. The future for house prices depends upon jobs and credit. If we get the 1.6m some have suggested it will be a mega crash. QE2 could buy sometime for HPI I suppose but the news is too good for the BoE to admit they need more cash in the system. I find it increasingly difficult to try to predict anything. Overall, I can't see that we are out of the financial woods planted by Brown yet. It all sounds rosy in the press with stocks steaming to new recent highs, Halifax reporting the HPC has reversed (despite a record plunge in mortgages in October--90% MoM drop was it not?). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
headrow Posted November 5, 2010 Share Posted November 5, 2010 I've been following this board since 2005. Every year we heard that the real crash was just around the corner ('the fake show can't go on for much longer'). Yet, we had 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and now we have the year of 2010 which is now coming to an end... I'm perfectly aware of what happened in 2008 and understand how the crash was prevented by the government. What did our government do that was any different to the people in charge in the USA , Ireland and Spain? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pole Posted November 5, 2010 Author Share Posted November 5, 2010 (edited) What did our government do that was any different to the people in charge in the USA , Ireland and Spain? mortgage support schemes, more public sector jobs, benefits, etc. It also prevented banks from going bankrupt. Check out how many banks collapsed in the US... Edited November 5, 2010 by Pole Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
headrow Posted November 5, 2010 Share Posted November 5, 2010 mortgage support schemes, more public sector jobs, benefits, etc. I think that the main reason we have avoided a dramatic HPC is fear. People have knuckled under and decided to pay their debt down on the hope that things will come good in the future. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pauly_Boy Posted November 5, 2010 Share Posted November 5, 2010 I think it's going to be a slow, long crash. In my area prices are slowly falling, supply is once again tight and in the last couple of weeks the number of houses for sale have fallen 5%. Flats on the other hand arn't selling, even one that did go under offer for a bargain price came back on the market within 10 days. Proof if we need any that FTBs are frozen out the market as I presume a FTB couldn't get a mortgage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrPin Posted November 5, 2010 Share Posted November 5, 2010 Everthing is slower than it claims on the packet! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatdog Posted November 5, 2010 Share Posted November 5, 2010 It may or may not be, I don't care, I'll just keep renting until sentiment turns . +1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tallguy Posted November 5, 2010 Share Posted November 5, 2010 (edited) Either House prices will crash, in which case there will be biblical unemployment levels and those who can work will have to work for a pittance. Credit will be nigh-on impossible to come by and if you can get it you will pay though the nose for it. Thus, in terms of affordability, houses will be no cheaper and possibly more expensive than they are now for the average citizen Or House prices will not crash but will, instead, slowly stagnate/deflate over an extended period. Meanwhile, inflation will go through the roof causing the prices of all essential goods and services to rise dramatically. At the same time, the wages of the average citizen will not increase. Interest rates will rise but not enough to keep up with inflation for savers. These rises will also mean that those who take on mortages will see any small reductions in purchase price more than offset by increases in monthy repayments. Thus, in terms of affordability, houses will be no cheaper and possibly more expensive than they are now for the average citizen It doesn't matter what happens to "prices". All that matters is the ratio-of-affordability and that's going nowhere good no matter which side of the economic knife-edge our basket-case economy eventually falls. You are all going to be working harder, for longer and for less in return. Get used to it. Edited November 5, 2010 by tallguy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LuckyOne Posted November 5, 2010 Share Posted November 5, 2010 Either House prices will crash, in which case there will be biblical unemployment levels and those who can work will have to work for a pittance. Credit will be nigh-on impossible to come by and if you can get it you will pay though the nose for it. Thus, in terms of affordability, houses will be no cheaper and possibly more expensive than they are now for the average citizen Or House prices will not crash but will, instead, slowly stagnate/deflate over an extended period. Meanwhile, inflation will go through the roof causing the prices of all essential goods and services to rise dramatically. At the same time, the wages of the average citizen will not increase. Interest rates will rise but not enough to keep up with inflation for savers. These rises will also mean that those who take on mortages will see any small reductions in purchase price more than offset by increases in monthy repayments. Thus, in terms of affordability, houses will be no cheaper and possibly more expensive than they are now for the average citizen It doesn't matter what happens to "prices". All that matters is the ratio-of-affordability and that's going nowhere good no matter which side of the economic knife-edge our basket-case economy eventually falls. You are all going to be working harder, for longer and for less in return. Get used to it. I think that you are depressingly accurate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle_monty Posted November 5, 2010 Share Posted November 5, 2010 Indeed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plums Posted November 5, 2010 Share Posted November 5, 2010 (edited) Either House prices will crash, in which case there will be biblical unemployment levels and those who can work will have to work for a pittance. Credit will be nigh-on impossible to come by and if you can get it you will pay though the nose for it. Thus, in terms of affordability, houses will be no cheaper and possibly more expensive than they are now for the average citizen Or House prices will not crash but will, instead, slowly stagnate/deflate over an extended period. Meanwhile, inflation will go through the roof causing the prices of all essential goods and services to rise dramatically. At the same time, the wages of the average citizen will not increase. Interest rates will rise but not enough to keep up with inflation for savers. These rises will also mean that those who take on mortages will see any small reductions in purchase price more than offset by increases in monthy repayments. Thus, in terms of affordability, houses will be no cheaper and possibly more expensive than they are now for the average citizen It doesn't matter what happens to "prices". All that matters is the ratio-of-affordability and that's going nowhere good no matter which side of the economic knife-edge our basket-case economy eventually falls. You are all going to be working harder, for longer and for less in return. Get used to it. The most accurate post I’ve seen on here in a long time! Sadly those forummers who joined and are posting on here, purely hoping that the ‘UK house purchase affordability gods’ will look down from high above, see their rants and choose to ignore all related economic factors such as the cost of credit and magically make real estate purchases (as opposed to ‘hiring a home’ aka renting) more ..ahem.. financially viable to them, may be eternally deluded.. Edit Ps Like many on here no doubt, I too was disappointed by the content of the 'Palin NIP video' thread... Edited November 5, 2010 by plums Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fairies Wear Boots Posted November 5, 2010 Share Posted November 5, 2010 What did our government do that was any different to the people in charge in the USA , Ireland and Spain? At the risk of boring you to death can I mention NI which is in the UK. We went from London/South East prices in 2007 to North england prices for FTB properties today. So Semi det houses which I bookmarked in 2007 at 250K are now on sale at 130K. This is a fact. In the meantime there was no wholesale repossessions - very little in fact. The huge BTL portfolios were on the whole not put on the market. Houses just crept down and down to 55% of their 2007 price. If it can happen here it can happen anywhere. People are still buying in the shops but not as much as before. Unemployment is rising but mostly in the construction industry. I still think this can happen on the mainland. Don't these country's have an excess of property? Whole new build developments lying empty. Where here, we haven't built enough houses to keep up with the influx of people. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrPin Posted November 5, 2010 Share Posted November 5, 2010 I still think this can happen on the mainland. I think you are correct! The "mainland" press seems obsessed with what happens within 5 minites walk of a "tube station" whatever that is? Everywhere else, including NI, is ignored! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SMAC67 Posted November 5, 2010 Share Posted November 5, 2010 Expect QE3, followed by QE4, followed by QE5, etc etc, except the time intervals between each to become shorter. Assets will continue to to go down in value, the cost of living up, taxes will be increased, the value of money reduced, banks will fail, companies will close, pensions will disappear, savings will be purloined, gold will increase in value (or rather money will decrease in value),unemployment up, more repossessions, more dodgy finance initiatives, more cuts to services, record bonuses for the banksters, another war in the middle east, a populace unable to tear itself away from Cheryl Cole and the X-Factor, all the while the government and media will proclaim success in averting disaster. What's not to look forward to? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guitarman001 Posted November 5, 2010 Share Posted November 5, 2010 It's all pretty depressing. Prices ARE down somewhat but attitudes still stink, government and media still have a vested interest, the positive feel regarding property is being perpetuated, and BTL just seems to keep on going. I think we're actually losing, it's been YEARS now; what if we lose out to property-owning BTLers? Ugh - makes me weep. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sammysnake Posted November 5, 2010 Share Posted November 5, 2010 naaa wont be crash as such. Deflation deflation. You won't be getting any pay rise for some time soon, but it will cost you more to get to work and back. A long period of month on month minor reductions. Homes in crap area's will be affordable though thanks to the coalitions public sector policies. Hold your deposits, unless of course you want your child to be educated to the standard of Hazel Blears Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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