Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Realistbear

U.k. Home Prices Won't Return To Peak Until 2016, Savills Says

Recommended Posts

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-05/u-k-home-prices-won-t-return-to-peak-levels-until-2016-savills-predicts.html

U.K. home prices may take longer than expected to return to peak levels as tax increases and job cuts cause values to drop through next year, Savills Plc said.
It will probably take until 2016 for prices to get back to where they were in 2007, according to a report released today. That’s two years later than the London-based broker predicted in November 2009. Savills expects average U.K. values to fall 3 percent next year and start to gain in 2012.

Not sure if this will cause gold to rise or fall, slaps own wrist-------a bit of sunshine on a otherwise full and listless day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Any mention how much a load of bread or petrol will cost by then ?

:lol:

what a load of old tosh heh - why do people assume 'peak' levels are normal??

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

:lol:

what a load of old tosh heh - why do people assume 'peak' levels are normal??

Maybe if hyper-inflation kicks in then the old peak with be the new trough !!!!

:lol:

My head is starting to hurt coming to terms with that :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ha, not even a mention on how inflation is going to affect (I think destroy) affordability. As for the London finance jobs, not much that cannot be done elsewhere - this bubble resurgence with the financial death warrant to many jobs reliant on elevated incomes to match super-elevated living costs. The dam is about to break again on outsourcing/offshoring/shifting more services to automated systems.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2016

That’s two years later than the London-based broker predicted in November 2009.

So

2009 - 2014

2010 - 2016

2011 - 2018

2012 - 2020

So at that rate they might even be in the right ball park by 2012 (giving 2020 to reach peak levels again) assuming that after the biggest boomiest most widespread housing boom in the history of planet earth it takes no longer than the last boom to reach peak levels again i.e. it took 13 years the last time - 1989 to 2002.

2020 maybe but more than likely a good few years after 2020. If ever in real terms.

The whole thing's a total farce and I think "the London-based broker" is just joining in.

Edited by billybong

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

House prices in Japan are still a long way below their 1989 peak after 2 decades of 0% interest rates and several rounds of QE. We might not see houses at their 2007 sterling price again in our lifetimes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

House prices in Japan are still a long way below their 1989 peak after 2 decades of 0% interest rates and several rounds of QE. We might not see houses at their 2007 sterling price again in our lifetimes.

Agreed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

:lol:

what a load of old tosh heh - why do people assume 'peak' levels are normal??

All sense of 'normal' has long gone out of the window. Sellers who bought 15 years ago are throwing around figures like 220K for an end terrace as if they think it's a perfectly reasonable price and conveniently forgetting that they would have no chance to finance that if they were relatively new to the housing ladder.

The reason why the peak is such a focus is not just because people want to return to it. Many out there think the market has already crashed and want to see peak prices return so they can advance BEYOND that. Scary really.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

House prices in Japan are still a long way below their 1989 peak after 2 decades of 0% interest rates and several rounds of QE. We might not see houses at their 2007 sterling price again in our lifetimes.

+1

Slow grinding falls from here 40% off by 2020 in real terms, after that anybodys guess.

Spiney.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Agreed.

House prices in Japan are a bad example really, you're not comparing like for like

Land values have decreased but property prices have stayed the same. In Japan you take on two mortgages...the joy eh?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

House prices in Japan are a bad example really, you're not comparing like for like

Correct. A lot is made on this site about what's happened over there and it's just not that comparable. Accommodation over there is much lower quality than the UK (the flat I used to rent in Tokyo was so cold you could see your breath inside during winter). Anything over 30 years is considered old and stuff is knocked down and rebuilt at an incredible rate. Also, landlords in Japan can milk tenants for financial 'gifts' on a scale that make our BTL brigade look caring. Throw in the fact that people entertain friends and family in restaurants rather than their own homes and you're talking about very different accommodation and markets.

Edited by rantnrave

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

...A lot is made on this site about what's happened over there and it's just not that comparable....

all of what you say here's more or less irrelevant IMO since both both bubbles were about nothing other than credit expansion and contraction, but let's consider the post one by one

...Accommodation over there is much lower quality than the UK (the flat I used to rent in Tokyo was so cold you could see your breath inside during winter). Anything over 30 years is considered old and stuff is knocked down and rebuilt at an incredible rate...

why on earth would low quality housing point towards a propensity towards house prices falling for 20-odd years? were they made of gold and diamonds up to 1988 & only switched over to cheaper materials or something?

...landlords in Japan can milk tenants for financial 'gifts' on a scale that make our BTL brigade look caring...

why would this factor tend to make prices fall for 20-odd years? i can't even begin to think of a story, plausible or otherwise.

...people entertain friends and family in restaurants rather than their own homes...

see above.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ah yes, the joy of Japan in the winter. It really makes you appreciate central heating doesn't it B)

Western perceptions of the Japanese economy is totally disfigured thanks to miss-informed media.

The buddhist virtue of non attachment to homes serves them well though. No-one will touch a house older then 10 years old in Kobe!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The point I'm trying to make is that the mentality the Japanese have towards housing is totally different. Owning a house is not the be all and end all of most people's goals over there. Daytime TV is full of cooking shows rather than property pap. The sentiment is just so different in this area.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.