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Realistbear

U S Aded 151,000 Jobs In October -- Bernanke Jumped Gun?

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-05/u-s-added-151-000-jobs-in-october-exceeding-forecasts-unemployment-9-6-.html

U.S. Added 151,000 Jobs in October, Unemployment at 9.6%
By Shobhana Chandra - Nov 5, 2010 12:57 PM GMT
Payrolls climbed 151,000, exceeding all estimates in a Bloomberg News survey of economists and following a revised 41,000 drop the prior month that was smaller than initially estimated, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Private payrolls that exclude government agencies also gained more than forecast, while the jobless rate held at 9.6 percent.

But surely the Fed woudl have been talking with the Department of Labor before going ahead with their folly?

Edited by Realistbear

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-05/u-s-added-151-000-jobs-in-october-exceeding-forecasts-unemployment-9-6-.html

U.S. Added 151,000 Jobs in October, Unemployment at 9.6%
By Shobhana Chandra - Nov 5, 2010 12:57 PM GMT
Payrolls climbed 151,000, exceeding all estimates in a Bloomberg News survey of economists and following a revised 41,000 drop the prior month that was smaller than initially estimated, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Private payrolls that exclude government agencies also gained more than forecast, while the jobless rate held at 9.6 percent.

But surely the Fed woudlo have been talking with the Deptartment of Labor before going ahead with their folly?

No, they fiddled the employment figures.

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http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/11/gaming-jobs-report-timtabs-75000-adp.html

Bloomberg

The Bloomberg Survey average was +60,000.

The U.S. jobless rate held at 9.6 percent for a third month in October, according to a Bloomberg News survey before today’s Labor Department report. Payrolls likely rose by 60,000, the first increase since May, a separate survey showed.

Anything from +40,000 to +110,000 seems like a reasonable guess. I certainly would not be surprised to see a number in the upper end of that range. Stores are hiring, Black Friday sales are starting 3 weeks early, and ISM reports seemed surprisingly strong.

However, I do not think positive surprises will hold.

TrimTabs says it best "Economic growth is likely to stay sluggish because the private sector isn’t able to pick up the slack from waning government stimulus. State and local government budget crises and the weak housing market will be significant drags on growth for a long time."

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http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=171347

Wow, what a cheering session we have today!

Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 151,000 in October, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Since December 2009, nonfarm payroll employment has risen by 874,000.

Hmmm.... here's the graphs, and they look pretty good:

But those who have followed me for any length of time know that I put nearly no importance on the "Establishment" survey, mostly because it's not just a survey - it contains a black box known as the "birth-death" model which is just a guess as to how many small businesses the government thinks have been formed.

Historically, that has always overstated reality. The skeptics among us think it does that on purpose, as a means of trying to "pump" markets and sentiment.

So I turn instead to the Household Survey, which is an actual count. And here, what I find has less reason to cheer.

The total number of people employed has not materially changed this month. That's exactly what would be expected from the above.

Charts and more at the link.

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Concern over the anemic job market was a factor behind the Federal Reserve's decision this week to pump an additional $600bn (£370bn) into the economy through government bond purchases to push interest rates down further and stimulate demand.

I wonder if Bernanke will issue a recall statement this afternoon? Or will he say he never said he would dumpt $600bn into the economy but would add incrementally so long as there was a need?

Oo-er.

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-05/u-s-added-151-000-jobs-in-october-exceeding-forecasts-unemployment-9-6-.html

U.S. Added 151,000 Jobs in October, Unemployment at 9.6%
By Shobhana Chandra - Nov 5, 2010 12:57 PM GMT
Payrolls climbed 151,000, exceeding all estimates in a Bloomberg News survey of economists and following a revised 41,000 drop the prior month that was smaller than initially estimated, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Private payrolls that exclude government agencies also gained more than forecast, while the jobless rate held at 9.6 percent.

But surely the Fed woudl have been talking with the Department of Labor before going ahead with their folly?

Thousands of typesetters, ink makers, printers being taken on at the moment.......

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Any normal recovery would have 300k+ jobs gained month after month and only about 300k filing initial unemployment claims every week instead of the 450k we have now.

This just shows that the labour market is weak but not collapsing further...yet.

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RB, considering you said in another thread a moment ago that 'no matter how much Bernanke pumps in to the US economy deflation will deepen', why would it matter if Bernanke jumped the gun? Unless you're contradicting yourself, Bernanke is pissing in the wind (according to you).

Edited by Traktion

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RB, considering you said in another thread a moment ago that 'no matter how much Bernanke pumps in to the US economy deflation will deepen', why would it matter if Bernanke jumped the gun? Unless you're contradicting yourself, Bernanke is pissing in the wind (according to you).

Bernanke apparently issued his QE2 statement before the "unexpected" jobs report. His QE2 has apparently had the reverse effect, at least iniatially, on bonds and commodities as well as gasolini which has risen--not what the Fed want to see. Yes, I do think the man is pissing in the wind. He just needs to chill and go with the force (the business cycle).

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  • 145 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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