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TheCountOfNowhere

Where Will It All End....

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Just sitting here wondering where it will all end.

Nothing seems to have changed under the Tories.

Not seeing any evidence that anyone has any idea how to sort the banking crisis.

The yanks want to print, the brits will be told to follow.

The FTSE keeps going up.

Gold is over-priced.

House prices are a joke.

Everyone I know isover-stretched and running out of money/credit fast.

Where will it all end....will we get another bank failure soon, a big one ?

Will we just inflate the problem away ?

I dont see wages going up so this is going to make us all extremely poor.

Is the depression just waiting round the corner ?

Ultimately....will there be war ?

I see no other outcome at the moment. Too many people, too few resourced, global warming, peak oil etc etc etc.

Maybe it's time to buy a house and fill it with beans.

EDIT: Tins of beans, I mean. Wouldbe messy otherwise.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Gold is over-priced? I think you'll find fiat currency is overpriced and the rising gold price is actually result of the purchasing power of fiat currencies falling, rather than gold rising.

This mess is sorting itself out, but it's going to be a bumpy ride. Govt's are busy trashing their currencies and stabbing their savers and pension holders in the back as a result. We are headed back to a de facto gold standard, as everyone starts to lose faith in fiat currency. That's my belief and that's why I've invested in gold and silver bullion to ride this out, rather than sitting and disparing as the value of my savings gets ravaged by inflation and currency devaluation.

Now I'm on the right side of the trade, all bad news is actually good news and I'm actively willing the whole scenario on. There is no going back to the old days, not that old days with high house prices was any sort of status quo to be happy with, as I'm sure you'll agree. So accept facts and take bold action to ride this out successfully. Alternatively, sit in the headlights paralysed by fear until you get hit by the oncoming train.

Ultimately, house prices down in real terms, purchasing power of fiat currency down in real terms, purchasing power of gold up in real terms (it's been happening for a decade now and will continue to accelerate).

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Gold is over-priced? I think you'll find fiat currency is overpriced and the rising gold price is actually result of the purchasing power of fiat currencies falling, rather than gold rising.

This mess is sorting itself out, but it's going to be a bumpy ride. Govt's are busy trashing their currencies and stabbing their savers and pension holders in the back as a result. We are headed back to a de facto gold standard, as everyone starts to lose faith in fiat currency. That's my belief and that's why I've invested in gold and silver bullion to ride this out, rather than sitting and disparing as the value of my savings gets ravaged by inflation and currency devaluation.

Now I'm on the right side of the trade, all bad news is actually good news and I'm actively willing the whole scenario on. There is no going back to the old days, not that old days with high house prices was any sort of status quo to be happy with, as I'm sure you'll agree. So accept facts and take bold action to ride this out successfully. Alternatively, sit in the headlights paralysed by fear until you get hit by the oncoming train.

Ultimately, house prices down in real terms, purchasing power of fiat currency down in real terms, purchasing power of gold up in real terms (it's been happening for a decade now and will continue to accelerate).

I could tell from your first sentence you were into gold.

Gold only every goes up...it's the new paradigm.

......CRASH.

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Just sitting here wondering where it will all end.

Nothing seems to have changed under the Tories.

In what way has nothing changed?

ISTM that we have a stable government run by a fiscally responsible leader and the rating agents have acted accordinly (i.e they haven't downgraded our AAA staus).

The alternative was a weak goverment, run by an over-spending leader and the rating agencies would have hammered us with interest rates sky rocketing.

It's the lack of the second option that has happened because of the Tories.

tim

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In what way has nothing changed?

ISTM that we have a stable government run by a fiscally responsible leader and the rating agents have acted accordinly (i.e they haven't downgraded our AAA staus).

The alternative was a weak goverment, run by an over-spending leader and the rating agencies would have hammered us with interest rates sky rocketing.

It's the lack of the second option that has happened because of the Tories.

tim

We have a government of the bankers, for the bankers, by the bankers.

Nothing has changed. it's all still printy printy and running headlong into utter collapse. ALl the tories and chums are doing is stealing what's left before the last ship sails.

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we have a stable government run by a fiscally responsible leader

I would dig a little deeper if I were you, Osborne is actually planning to increase spending in nominal terms. See my signature for his own projected spending figures. The supposed "cuts" were a masterstroke of spin over substance. Cuts are when you spend less on things.

Osborne's plan is really no different to Darling's: slow spending increases slightly and hope tax revenues zoom ahead to fill the gap. Only trouble is, there is no recovereh and it ain't happening.

We remain full steam ahead for either a UK sovereign default or a BoE Gilt-buying bonanza (+ hyperinflation?) in the not-too-distant future.

Edit: the Tories are not the messiah, they are very naughty boys.

Edited by Dorkins

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Could someone please explain to me why if FIAT currencies are becoming less valuable and therefore gold becoming worth more of your dollars/pounds whatever, houses should work in the opposite direction?

Why should other commodities rise and houses fall relative to currency?

This is not being argumentative, it is a genuine question.

Edited by Azbola

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Could someone please explain to me why if FIAT currencies are becoming less valuable and therefore gold becoming worth more of your dollars/pounds whatever, houses should work in the opposite direction?

Houses are bought using wages, they are already significantly overpriced relative to wages, and wages are not really rising in nominal terms. Therefore house prices are still set to fall.

If we get a big surge of wage inflation then maybe house prices won't fall so much. That's a big if.

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Could someone please explain to me why if FIAT currencies are becoming less valuable and therefore gold becoming worth more of your dollars/pounds whatever, houses should work in the opposite direction?

Why should other commodities rise and houses fall relative to currency?

This is not being argumentative, it is a genuine question.

Houses get taxed.

Fiat gets devalued, your tax bill goes up.

Then you wind up selling the furniture to avoid prison.

Housing is now and always has been a liability, a cost of living.

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Houses are bought using wages, they are already significantly overpriced relative to wages, and wages are not really rising in nominal terms. Therefore house prices are still set to fall.

If we get a big surge of wage inflation then maybe house prices won't fall so much. That's a big if.

not quite...houses are bought using credit...huge credit based on 25 or 40 year plans, complete with repayment vehicle..or not.

wages have been static for years, but lenders have encouraged asset prices up by:

reducing rates

reducing affordability criteria

adding suitable borrowers ( lowering standards)

standards are rising a bit now, but we are far from AAA lending in the mortgage market.

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Could someone please explain to me why if FIAT currencies are becoming less valuable and therefore gold becoming worth more of your dollars/pounds whatever, houses should work in the opposite direction?

Why should other commodities rise and houses fall relative to currency?

This is not being argumentative, it is a genuine question.

10551-485-500.jpg

CUT OUT HIS TONGUE!

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just joshing you. Your question was very reasonable, and there is absolutely no reason to expect gold to go to the moon but not land.

people who think this is going to happen are guilty of wishful thinking, shall we say, and will come up with all kinds of implausible reasons why.

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Could someone please explain to me why if FIAT currencies are becoming less valuable and therefore gold becoming worth more of your dollars/pounds whatever, houses should work in the opposite direction?

Why should other commodities rise and houses fall relative to currency?

This is not being argumentative, it is a genuine question.

There are probably loads of reasons for this, the housing market is so deeply entwined with the banking system that when the latter was on the brink of collapse it would have killed the housing market if allowed to go, which is not great for prices. Some commodities are portable too so it limits counterparty risk, an attractive quality when you require the ultimate defensive asset.

Edited by Chef

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I would dig a little deeper if I were you, Osborne is actually planning to increase spending in nominal terms. See my signature for his own projected spending figures. The supposed "cuts" were a masterstroke of spin over substance. Cuts are when you spend less on things.

Osborne's plan is really no different to Darling's: slow spending increases slightly and hope tax revenues zoom ahead to fill the gap. Only trouble is, there is no recovereh and it ain't happening.

We remain full steam ahead for either a UK sovereign default or a BoE Gilt-buying bonanza (+ hyperinflation?) in the not-too-distant future.

Edit: the Tories are not the messiah, they are very naughty boys.

I agree that we are on full speed for the rocks, but with Gordo at the helm we were at flank speed.

Flank speed is a nautical term referring to a ship's true maximum speed, beyond the speed that can be reached by traveling at full speed. Usually, flank speed is reserved for situations in which a ship finds itself in imminent danger, such as coming under attack by aircraft. Flank speed is very fuel-inefficient and often unsustainable because of engine overheating issues.

(Wiki)

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just joshing you. Your question was very reasonable, and there is absolutely no reason to expect gold to go to the moon but not land.

people who think this is going to happen are guilty of wishful thinking, shall we say, and will come up with all kinds of implausible reasons why.

Gold is in a bubble and the house price bubble is deflating ?

Or housing is bought with credit (hard to come by) and gold isn't ? Not sure if gold is bought with credit - wouldn't be surprised if you could.

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I agree that we are on full speed for the rocks, but with Gordo at the helm we were at flank speed.

(Wiki)

Gordo was just the salesmen for what the bankers wanted. Cameron is slightly better at it, as we can see - many peopel have fallen for him. "Plausible" is the word, I think.

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Cameron's background is public relations. To gain some idea how that works, you can read here about Edward Bernays. Ever wonder how cigarettes got into film? How America volunteered to fight in WW1? Look no further than the man who wrote the book Propaganda, the original spin doctor...

From Wikipedia

Edward Louis Bernays (November 22, 1891 – March 9, 1995), was an American pioneer in the field of public relations and propaganda along with Ivy Lee, referred to in his obituary as "the father of public relations".[1] Combining the ideas of Gustave Le Bon and Wilfred Trotter on crowd psychology with the psychoanalytical ideas of his uncle, Dr. Sigmund Freud, Bernays was one of the first to attempt to manipulate public opinion using the subconscious.

He felt this manipulation was necessary in society, which he regarded as irrational and dangerous as a result of the 'herd instinct' that Trotter had described.[citation needed] Adam Curtis's award-winning 2002 documentary for the BBC, The Century of the Self, pinpoints Bernays as the originator of modern public relations, and Bernays was named one of the 100 most influential Americans of the 20th century by Life magazine.[2]

In Propaganda (1928), Bernays argued that the manipulation of public opinion was a necessary part of democracy:

The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society. Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country. ...We are governed, our minds are molded, our tastes formed, our ideas suggested, largely by men we have never heard of. This is a logical result of the way in which our democratic society is organized. Vast numbers of human beings must cooperate in this manner if they are to live together as a smoothly functioning society. ...In almost every act of our daily lives, whether in the sphere of politics or business, in our social conduct or our ethical thinking, we are dominated by the relatively small number of persons...who understand the mental processes and social patterns of the masses. It is they who pull the wires which control the public mind.

Notwithstanding such seeming probity, articles in the journals of opinion, such as the one by Marlen Pew, Edward L. Bernays Critiqued as "Young Machiavelli of Our Time",[6] and the debate between Bernays and Everett Dean Martin in Forum, Are We Victims of Propaganda?, depicted Bernays negatively.[7] He and other publicists were often attacked as propagandists and deceptive manipulators, who represented lobby groups against the public interest and covertly contrived events that secured coverage as news stories, free of charge, for their clients instead of securing attention for them through paid advertisements.[citation needed]

Edward_Bernays.jpg

Edited by Toto deVeer

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Gold is in a bubble and the house price bubble is deflating ?

Or housing is bought with credit (hard to come by) and gold isn't ? Not sure if gold is bought with credit - wouldn't be surprised if you could.

What's funny is that if you mention gold in a post the gold bugs jump on it and start discussing it.

Mention war....nothing.

When/If the big players in the gold market decide to sell off quickly then the little boys buying in at the end will be left with their latest bad investment.

Investments go down as well as up...including gold.

Now...about that war....

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Gordo was just the salesmen for what the bankers wanted. Cameron is slightly better at it, as we can see - many peopel have fallen for him. "Plausible" is the word, I think.

Part of me wishes Gordo and his merry band of economic incompetents were back in, if we're going to do this then lets just open up the taps and go batsh!t mental. I can see Cameron stringing it out a bit longer.

Edited by Chef

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What's funny is that if you mention gold in a post the gold bugs jump on it and start discussing it.

Mention war....nothing.

When/If the big players in the gold market decide to sell off quickly then the little boys buying in at the end will be left with their latest bad investment.

Investments go down as well as up...including gold.

Now...about that war....

Your correct, but with QE on the cards for years to come, it won't be falling for a while yet. All the goldbugs realize this and won't be holding gold for ever they will sell one day, some will make a good call,others won't.

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Cameron's background is public relations. To gain some idea how that works, you can read here about Edward Bernays. Ever wonder how cigarettes .got into film? How America volunteered to fight in WW!? Look no further than the man who wrote the book Propaganda, the original spin doctor...

These idea's are very old, you can read books like The prince by machiavelli, and even further back plato's republic, and of course the old religions of the pagan priest back all the way to sumer, off course with each generation comes improvments.

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Could someone please explain to me why if FIAT currencies are becoming less valuable and therefore gold becoming worth more of your dollars/pounds whatever, houses should work in the opposite direction?

Why should other commodities rise and houses fall relative to currency?

This is not being argumentative, it is a genuine question.

In a nutshell, gold is a fixed commodity. Meanwhile, fiat currency is being printed at an alarming rate. Therefore it takes more fiat to buy gold, so gold rises in price. This is one way to look at it, but in actual fact what is really happening is fiat is becoming less valuable than gold because fiat is being debased by money printing, i.e. the purchasing power of gold heads up as fiat heads down.

The upshot of this is that those who hold wealth in fiat will see their share of the worldly wealth diminish as holders of gold see their's increase.

Gold acts very much like currency and has survived as money for thousands of years due to it's properties, the main ones being the fact it is durable and can't be printed into oblivion. Herein lies that case for it's reinstatement as money (via backing a new currency/ies - digital or paper/coin - as was the case pre 1971). This is likely to happen whatever govts of the world want it to or not, as wealth migrates to safety in gold.

Edited by General Congreve

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  • 145 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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