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Halifax Hpi October 2010 1.8%


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Some people get a bit overexcited when there are large drops. Some of them are desperate to buy and are priced out, but their time will come in a few years when sentiment has changed and prices are down by another 30%+ ;).

To be honest, monthly figures are not very meaningful on such small volumes.

As a matter of interest, have a read of what the mainstream press had to say last time...

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/wiki/Read_what_the_Newspapers_were_saying_last_time_around

+1

And to be fair, on a forum called housepricecrash, you can reasonably expect a little jubilance when a historically large monthly fall is recorded, even though IIRC there were posts cautioning that this was volatility due to low volumes. And conversely things will be more subdued when there is a monthly fall. I think most here appreciate the trend is down and gaining momentum but would still rather not see any monthly increases though.

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Actually, the express and others all seem quite restrained today - quite bearish even...

Give them time, their "breaking" news sometimes happens quite a few days after the event sort of unexpectedly.

Or maybe they've gone all Daily Mash on us :P

Edited by billybong
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Comfortingly, the comments on the Guardian article http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2010/nov/04/halifax-house-prices-cooling-market

are pretty much unanimous about the use of language in the very first sentence:

House prices in Britain have fallen 1.2% in the past three months, the Halifax reported today, adding to fears that the UK housing market is cooling.

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IIRC, the July and August Halifax figures were also unusual in that they were the only ones posting positive figures.

The MSM comes in for a lot of stick on this site for alternating between M-o-M figures and quarterly data depending on whatever suits their (usually bullish) agenda. However, any report that provides data which flies in the face of similar surveys for two months, then reports a massive over correction and then decides to half reverse that the month after is hardly winning my vote of confidence!

I think I'll rely more on Nationwide's monthly figures from now and only go by Halifax's quarterly totals.

Edited by rantnrave
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IIRC, the July and August Halifax figures were also unusual in that they were the only ones posting positive figures.

The MSM comes in for a lot of stick on this site for alternating between M-o-M figures and quarterly data depending on whatever suits their (usually bullish) agenda. However, any report that provides data which flies in the face of similar surveys for two months, then reports a massive over correction and then decides to half reverse that the month after is hardly winning my vote of confidence!

I think I'll rely more on Nationwide's monthly figures from now and only go by Halifax's quarterly totals.

+1

How many months of such extreme swings will people accept before Halifax loses credibility?

Let's face it, there is no way the Market changed by almost 5% in one month! I can assume Halifax are seriously losing Market share.

Transactions are higher than 2008 so you can't blame overall low sales volumes.

Edited by Pent Up
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+1

How many months of such extreme swings will people accept before Halifax loses credibility?

Let's face it, there is no way the Market changed by almost 5% in one month! I can assume Halifax are seriously losing Market share.

Transactions are higher than 2008 so you can't blame overall low sales volumes.

Surely no one thinks any of the set of housing stats has any real credibility on a month by month basis... volumes are too low by a very long shot.

The only real use for them is in a directional and rate of fall basis over time ( 3 months on 3 months)..

Mind you there are some nutters who think that the stats have some relevance to an actual purchasing decision... that's so localised and property specific that the stats have no real relevance other than perhaps as a negoitaiting tactic if you happen to be buying in a month that has seen some recent falls.

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Surely no one thinks any of the set of housing stats has any real credibility on a month by month basis... volumes are too low by a very long shot.

The only real use for them is in a directional and rate of fall basis over time ( 3 months on 3 months)..

Mind you there are some nutters who think that the stats have some relevance to an actual purchasing decision... that's so localised and property specific that the stats have no real relevance other than perhaps as a negoitaiting tactic if you happen to be buying in a month that has seen some recent falls.

But volumes are not low. They are half of 2007 but significantly up on 08 when these indices were no where near as erratic as this.

It must be that Halifax is losing some Market share.

I agree though, monthly figures are not a good indicator of trend.

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Even the express cant really big it up, the trend is down and they know it

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/209483/House-prices-show-sharp-increase

I'm starting to think we've overestimated the Express journos... I honestly don't think there's some hidden VI motive behind their writing, I think they just want to make sure the proles get their smile quota for the day of to keep them buying the paper. Jokes aside the majority of us would probably be better off psychologically if we took the blue pill and stopped asking questions....

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The Express won't be able to resist the headline "House prices BOOM by 22% per year"

The Express - slight more restrained than usual

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The morning after :(

Have to admit that i woke up this morning a little p****d off, even though i know yesterdays Halifax figures do not change anything i just want to get this over with now after years of waiting.

Anyway dust myself down and get off to work and just hold out that little longer.

Fox

I don't think we will see lower nominal prices mind you, but rather lower real prices.

I don't know when, but at some point wage inflation is going to eventually kick in. The amount of QE on both sides of the Atlantic with the Chinese effectively doing the same to peg the RMB means it is virtually certain.

I am not old enough to remember myself, but I was always interested in economics and did discuss it with my parents as a kid, and so the the 1970s is somewhat imprinted in my brain.  From everything I am told this feels a bit like the earlier part of the 1970s, there were pressures on peoples standards of living as prices rose 13% per year and peaked in 1975 at 25%.  I am not sure that wages necessarily kept up, but in time they did.

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Just a little patience - this winter will separate out owners who can't afford to wait any longer and the hole in the wall will get bigger and more water will get through till its a waterfall.

Just wait until the election, no hang on, wait until the October spending review. Christmas, yeah, that's it, just wait until Christmas.

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Just wait until the election, no hang on, wait until the October spending review. Christmas, yeah, that's it, just wait until Christmas.

The housing market will not fall unless prices become unaffordable.

When are they unaffordable?

1. When buyers lack enough funds to pay and

2. Banks will not lend them enough money to pay

As of today, people can afford to pay because the banks can afford to lend. If jobs are lost and banks cannot afford to lend at low IR rates you will have your crash.

The markets are euphoric right now because the Brown years and the debt created in that era is all contained. There is, so far, no fallout being felt by anyone.

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The markets are euphoric right now because the Brown years and the debt created in that era is all contained. There is, so far, no fallout being felt by anyone.

But we do have a lot more uncertainty. No fallout felt but people are feeling more cautious and worried now, which is partially where some of the last few month's drops come from.

As for this particular rise, it's disappointing but I suppose not unexpected if it's measuring relative to last month's big drop. The figures, like any data, are noisy, and if it's the noise that drove it that low (almost certainly) then an up is almost inevitable unless the whole thing is plummeting like a stone.

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Just wait until the election, no hang on, wait until the October spending review. Christmas, yeah, that's it, just wait until Christmas.

Don't worry the Market will pick up in spring. Oh it's because of the bank holidays. It will pick up after the election! Oh wait no after the budget! no after the world cup! Oh but now it's the summer lull just wait for the September buying season! Oh no luck there either, looks like it's a long winter slog until next years 'spring bounce'!

According to Halifax:

prices 1.2% down on the quarter.

0.0% on the year.

2.3% lower than the end of 2009.

The peak of the rally was January.

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Don't worry the Market will pick up in spring. Oh it's because of the bank holidays. It will pick up after the election! Oh wait no after the budget! no after the world cup! Oh but now it's the summer lull just wait for the September buying season! Oh no luck there either, looks like it's a long winter slog until next years 'spring bounce'!

According to Halifax:

prices 1.2% down on the quarter.

0.0% on the year.

2.3% lower than the end of 2009.

The peak of the rally was January.

Why bother m8, they was just itching to get back for last month. Play ground stuff. :lol:

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Some people here will always find an excuse not to buy. Wait for this, wait for that. I got bored of waiting, and when we have results like this 1.8% increase it just proves my point that nobody really has a clue what's going to happen to the housing market. I for one do not believe there will be this massive crash most of you are expecting. It's going to level off, with small increases and decreases. If one is looking to buy a place to live in for 7+ years just get on with it if you can afford to do so.

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Some people here will always find an excuse not to buy. Wait for this, wait for that. I got bored of waiting, and when we have results like this 1.8% increase it just proves my point that nobody really has a clue what's going to happen to the housing market. I for one do not believe there will be this massive crash most of you are expecting. It's going to level off, with small increases and decreases. If one is looking to buy a place to live in for 7+ years just get on with it if you can afford to do so.

Falling house prices is a good enough excuse for me.

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Some people here will always find an excuse not to buy. Wait for this, wait for that. I got bored of waiting, and when we have results like this 1.8% increase it just proves my point that nobody really has a clue what's going to happen to the housing market. I for one do not believe there will be this massive crash most of you are expecting. It's going to level off, with small increases and decreases. If one is looking to buy a place to live in for 7+ years just get on with it if you can afford to do so.

You'd fork out massively just because you're bored? It's wait, wait, wait because it requires patience. That "must have it now at any cost!" attitude (or more likely being completely blind to what the cost really is) has landed the country in enough trouble already. It's time to change that.

There might not be a massive crash but I've never heard any plausible explanation as to why this housing bubble should be of any different shape to any other housing bubble. Size, yes, shape, no. It went up for longer, it'll take longer to go down. If you want it now then go ahead. Just don't come crying to anyone in 7 years time if, come then, you wish you'd done otherwise.

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  • 441 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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