Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
marzipan

Opdm July House Prices

Recommended Posts

I'm not entirely clear on what "mix-adjusted" means.

It means instead of just looking at the full data set they have they take a hand picked subsample of it which they 'believe' is representative of the market as a whole.

Spot the flaw in this plan?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The clue here is in the first line

The mix-adjusted average house price in the UK in July 2005 stood at £186,207, up from £184,162 in June 2005 (not seasonally adjusted).

The figures on this survey will follow the trend across the year - higher in the summer and lower towards Jan

I have drawn a graph of the average house price in London in 2004 and compared it with 2005 to date.

London_House_Prices.gif

If the pink line hits the blue line then house price inflation in London will be zero.

You can see that the gap has closed considerably and it will probably cross between Aug and Sep if we continue the current trend.

Of course they probably wont stop there though as the next graph shows.

For this graph I have assumed that the year is split into 2 halves

Jan-Jul with an upward trend and

Aug to Dec for a downward trend each year.

After the trend lines cross over, the wider the gap the larger the yr/yr fall.

In reality real house prices will go down later in the year but the relationship between the lines should continue.

Projected_London_figures.gif

I hop this helps and I have not made too many mistakes.

post-2099-1126519233_thumb.jpg

post-2099-1126519835_thumb.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The clue here is in the first line

The figures on this survey will follow the trend across the year - higher in the summer and lower towards Jan

I have drawn a graph of the average house price in London in 2004 and compared it with 2005 to date.

London_House_Prices.gif

If the pink line hits the blue line then house price inflation in London will be zero.

You can see that the gap has closed considerably and it will probably cross between Aug and Sep if we continue the current trend.

Of course they probably wont stop there though as the next graph shows.

For this graph I have assumed that the year is split into 2 halves

Jan-Jul with an upward trend and

Aug to Dec for a downward trend each year.

After the trend lines cross over, the wider the gap the larger the yr/yr fall.

In reality real house prices will go down later in the year but the relationship between the lines should continue.

Projected_London_figures.gif

I hop this helps and I have not made too many mistakes.

Very interesting. If the effect of seasonality is so pronounced, you'd be mad to buy in the summer. Another advantage of being an STR when eventually buying back in.

When on this basis is the optimum buying month and does this hold even in a crash?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Very interesting. If the effect of seasonality is so pronounced, you'd be mad to buy in the summer. Another advantage of being an STR when eventually buying back in.

When on this basis is the optimum buying month and does this hold even in a crash?

It depends on the rate of fall, if the falls are faster that the Jan to Jul increases there will never be an overall increase.

I have used the trendlines to make a prediction for the rest of the year.

2005_Prediction.gif

post-2099-1126520921_thumb.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.