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Realistbear

Bernanke At 18:30 Gmt - What Will He Do?

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Bernanke remains seated at his desk to announce to the world how much, if any, QE2 will be dropped on the world. It will happen at 18:30 GMT (17:30 our time????).

Guestimates range from $1TR all at once to $100bn now and more later. Or he may follow Merv and just remain vigilant (caught in the headlights).

I am going to guess* that he will take an incremental approach starting with $100bn and reviewing the situation in 2 months time.

Whatever he does he will not be able to beat the market and the global black hole is probably around $50TR. Too much over-capacity, too little demand (at least in the West).

___________________________

* guesswork is proving to be the best approach these days as analysis, either technical of fundamental, is proving to be useless.

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If I may ?

PRINTY PRINTY off into infinity

The sad thing is that such economic vandalism has become normalised and whether it should be done has become moot.

How much should i rape your daughter sir?

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Bernanke remains seated at his desk to announce to the world how much, if any, QE2 will be dropped on the world. It will happen at 18:30 GMT (17:30 our time????).

Guestimates range from $1TR all at once to $100bn now and more later. Or he may follow Merv and just remain vigilant (caught in the headlights).

I am going to guess* that he will take an incremental approach starting with $100bn and reviewing the situation in 2 months time.

Whatever he does he will not be able to beat the market and the global black hole is probably around $50TR. Too much over-capacity, too little demand (at least in the West).

___________________________

* guesswork is proving to be the best approach these days as analysis, either technical of fundamental, is proving to be useless.

perhaps you should learn to do proper technical and fundamental analysis and then as you say your results wouldnt be so useless

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perhaps you should learn to do proper technical and fundamental analysis and then as you say your results wouldnt be so useless

Even the "experts" have no clue and you think you are able to predict anything? Bet you missed my "forecast" for sterling and the Euro? Cash in on bonds lately after a record year? No, didn't think so. :)

BTW have you sold any gold yet or still buying the dips? ;)

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If he's doing it at 18:30 GMT, 17:30 "our time" puts "our" location as somewhere in the Atlantic :huh:

The question remains: when, in our time, is 18:30 GMT. We are now BST -1 or -2?

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Won't he be painting his nails ready for the big jolly? Print and run.

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/the-federal-reserve-is-holding-a-conference-on-jekyll-island-to-celebrate-100-years-of-dominating-america-a-return-to-jekyll-island-the-origins-history-and-future-of-the-federal-reserve

The Federal Reserve Is Holding A Conference On Jekyll Island To Celebrate 100 Years Of Dominating America: “A Return to Jekyll Island: The Origins, History, and Future of the Federal Reserve”

Edited by OnlyMe

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Are you serious?

100bn now and more later, 1TR now, mofre less???????????

Anyone care to guess?

We are out of synch with the EZ and only now have a bill going before Parliament to adjust GMT to BST ( GMT -1/EZ BST -2). The US will often

http://www.lighterlater.org/

It’s only two days till the clocks move back an hour for winter, and as the nights draw in this year’s usual media coverage of the clock change has been brightened by a Lighter Later twist.

A flurry of independent reports released today echo our call for lighter evenings. The most influential is Dr Mayer Hillman’s Scotland report, which states that Scotland stands to benefit significantly from the clock change.

BBC News Scotland reported that “switching Scotland to Central European Time would reduce road casualties, improve health and boost the economy, according to new research”

The Independent gave Mayer Hillman’s Scotland report a positive mention, as did the Daily Express, and The Guardian, which focussed on the NFU Scotland’s neutral position.

Lighter Later supporter Rebecca Harris MP has popped up everywhere to talk about the Daylight Savings Bill. On the Daily Politics Show she won the support of everyone invited to discuss it (well, almost everyone!).

Politics.co.uk also interviewed her, and reported that The Communication Workers’ Union, which represents postal workers, had dropped its opposition to daylight saving after early morning deliveries were curtailed.

In addition to this, Terry Jones, acting director of communications at the National Farmers’ Union of England and Wales, said a narrow majority of farmers were in favour of lighter evenings last time members’ opinion was tested on the issue.

“If a firm proposal was made to put the clocks forward – in order to reduce road accidents, for example, or reduce energy consumption – we would need to consult our members – but at this stage we are keeping an open mind.”’

An entire half hour was devoted to the subject of clock change on Radio 4’s Costing the Earth (broadcast on Wednesday and Thursday, 27-28th October). Lighter Later’s campaign manager Daniel Vockins was invited to contribute, and if you’d like to hear what he said, the programme is available here for a few more days. He also appeared on Sky News’studio sofa yesterday morning, pointing out the advantages to presenter Eamonn Holmes.

Today London Mayor Boris Johnson announced another pro-clock change report by saying “It’s barmy that a great trading city and major global financial centre like London is so out of kilter with the rest of Europe. We do immense amounts of trade with our partners across the Channel and all the evidence shows we have little to lose and much to gain by setting our clocks in line with Paris, Frankfurt and other big cities.

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The magic printing press will never be turned off until they are forced to do so.

We must support this weak economic growth of 2% annualised given from the latest figures, this is the new normality.

We have a structural crisis that can only be resolved by printing free money, everyone should accept the gospel of blind faith.

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The magic printing press will never be turned off until they are forced to do so.

We must support this weak economic growth of 2% annualised given from the latest figures, this is the new normality.

We have a structural crisis that can only be resolved by printing free money, everyone should accept the gospel of blind faith.

$100bn now and a review in December?

The bets on this are possibly the heaviest ever. If Ben pulls the rug and goes for a small amount the SMs will reel badly. What is priced in?

The only certainty is that a large amount will kill the Euro (push it beyond competitiveness) and spur deflation:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-03/fed-easing-may-spark-european-deflation-impose-global-tax-mundell-says.html

Fed Easing May Spark European Deflation, Impose Global `Tax,' Mundell Says
By Bloomberg News - Nov 3, 2010 7:54 AM GMT
Federal Reserve debt purchases to stimulate the U.S. economy may send the euro rising against the dollar, sparking deflation in Europe, said Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Mundell.
The European Central Bank would be unlikely to stem the euro’s gains, Mundell said in an interview in Beijing today. In an earlier speech, he said U.S. quantitative easing would hurt nations around the world.
Deflation would worsen European sovereign credit woes by making debts harder to pay off, said Mundell, who won a Nobel Prize in economics in 1999 and is credited as the intellectual father of the euro. His warning highlights potential unintended consequences of U.S. policy after Brazil said last month that the Fed risks inflating asset bubbles elsewhere.

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I get the strong feeling the US is heading down the Japanese path.. always too little too late.

100 billion$ is next to nothing for the USA with a broad money supply of 52 trillion. The absolute minimum tey should commit to is 100 billion QE a month until their targets are hit. But you are probably right it will be the vey weak 100 billion and see what happens by the next meeting.

Edit to add: Which a tiny QE could see a large stock and commodity sell off.

Edited by aa3

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Asia placing some heavy bets on a large dose of QE2 which does not make sense as a lower $ will make their exports less attractive. On the iother hand, the smaller Asian economies can flog their kit to the Chinese--but then again.....

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/us-politics/8106659/Midterms-2010-US-stock-markets-rally-as-investors-eye-Republican-win-and-more-QE.html

Asian stocks were mostly higher on Wednesday as markets digested news that Republicans gained control of the House in midterm US elections and attention
refocused on the Federal Reserve's plans
to stimulate the world's biggest economy.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index climbed 1.4pc while China's Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.5. Markets in Japan were closed for a public holiday. South Korea's Kospi gained 1pc and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 climbed 0.4pc.

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I think they will be pretty cautious; they are prodding in the dark and seem quite unsure about what effect it will have. I would say $100bn now and more later. The fed is desperate; they feel they need to do something when they really don't. It will not address the real imbalances and structural issues in the US economy. Secretly praying they call it off altogether.

My view is it will have no effect on demand, unemployment or growth. It will cause large amounts of inflation in the longer term and much higher interest rates will be needed to control it. This could be part of the plan of course.

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fook !!!! You mean I should have put my clock forward last week ?

BST +1 has been proposed but the Bill is saying BST neutral. In other words GMT will not change as it does now but remain static viz the EZ and plus one vs. GMT.:

http://wwp.greenwichmeantime.co.uk/what-is-gmt.htm

Clocks Change: Spring Forward & Fall Back (Fall = Autumn)

BUT

GMT remains the same all year around.

GMT is essentially "winter time" which sets us apart from the EZ. When Bernanke remains seated to deliver the amount of QE2 he has trimed his speech at winter time for the UK as opposed to real time which is, of course, one hour earlier as we no longer follow the GMT standard due, apparently, to Scottish farmers who insist the clocks chnage back to winter or GMT time in the Fall. The US regard our GMT but tend to ignore BST and no one knows how they will deal with BST +1 if the Bill is passed as it will make the 18th Century GMT redundant.

But hat all said, are you assuming a $1TR package, less more? Incremntal or one dollop? Or, a surprise?*

____________________________

*Vigilance wouldbe the least likely option. A "Mervian" approach when you are caught in the headlights.

Edited by Realistbear

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doesnt matter what the figure is... its the same as being printed at home on your HP printer...valueless.

They cant lower rates, so they lower the value of the $ by diluting it.

shame, as the very consumers that they need to spend ( 70% of the economy) will see price rises to compensate, less spending power and therefore more firms stop hiring.

Printing solves nothing...never has, never will.

Edited by Bloo Loo

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doesnt matter what the figure is... its the same as being printed at home on your HP printer...valueless.

They cant lower rates, so they lower the value of the $ by diluting it.

shame, as the very consumers that they need to spend ( 70% of the economy) will see price rises to compensate, less spending power and therefore more firms stop hiring.

Printing solves nothing...never has, never will.

This is true. The market will absorb it and the cycle will revert to its normal course.

For every action there is an equal and oppsotie counteraction. Print and you dilute--dilute and you pay more cancelling out the effects of the dilution.

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Another thing to watch is what they might buy with the bonds. I am always arguing for buying long date government bonds.. and using the government to stimulus spend or even better, stimulus cut taxes to drive consumption.

But there is an argument for buying corporate bonds, mortgage backed bonds, even at the extreme end equities. Realize also in QE 1.0, 1 trillion of the 1.2 trillion went to buy agency MBS.

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Another thing to watch is what they might buy with the bonds. I am always arguing for buying long date government bonds.. and using the government to stimulus spend or even better, stimulus cut taxes to drive consumption.

But there is an argument for buying corporate bonds, mortgage backed bonds, even at the extreme end equities. Realize also in QE 1.0, 1 trillion of the 1.2 trillion went to buy agency MBS.

how will we know...its all a secret. you know, buying some firms bonds direct might have an effect on bondholder confidence.

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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