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Austerity To Cost Uk 1.6M Jobs Within Five Years, Says Cipd

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/8103420/Austerity-to-cost-UK-1.6m-jobs-within-five-years-says-CIPD.html

A total of 1.6m public and private sector jobs will be lost by 2015-16 as a result of fiscal austerity measures, according to the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD).

Politicians are hoping the private sector will take up the slack in the labour market caused by the 490,000 public sector job losses predicted over the next four years in official forecasts.

But the private sector will be hit even harder than the public sector by the spending cuts and looming increase in VAT, the CIPD has warned.

It estimates that the combined direct and indirect effect of public spending cuts will lead to 650,000 private sector job losses, while the impact of VAT rising from 17.5pc to 20pc will undermine profits to claim a further 250,000 jobs.

Merely guesses but it's a very bearish prediction.

Still we are having a jobless recovery.

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I've yet to see any of these reports mention the elephant in the room: net new mortgage lending. Over the period 2002-2007 it averaged £100bn a year. Last year it was £14bn. That fall of £86bn is the biggest 'cut' of all. The private sector is at least as over bloated as the public sector. Politicians seem to think that we have too few people working, when the real problem is that we have too many. More accurately, the country's wage bill is too high for our productive capacity. In recent years the gap has been filled by borrowed money. That tap has now been turned off. Since most employees are reluctant to take a pay cut, the reduction in our wage bill will be met by rising un- and under-employment.

Edited by CrashConnoisseur

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I've yet to see any of these reports mention the elephant in the room: net new mortgage lending. Over the period 2002-2007 it averaged £100bn a year. Last year it was £14bn. That fall of £86bn is the biggest 'cut' of all. The private sector is at least as over bloated as the public sector. Politicians seem to think that we have too few people working, when the real problem is that we have too many. More accurately, the country's wage bill is too high for our productive capacity. In recent years the gap has been filled by borrowed money. That tap has now been turned off. Since most employees are reluctant to take a pay cut, the reduction in our wage bill will be met by rising un- and under-employment.

Where have you been for the past 2 and 1/2 years?

In the private sector we have seen whole groups of workforces accept shorter hours or pay reductions to save jobs and skills. Remember at the start of the recession the prediction was for unemployment to hit 2.5 to 4mill. Whereas because of the actions of private sector workforces it bearley hit 2.5mill. Then last quarter the employment reports were 178K part time jobs but the people wanted full time jobs, this is another example of people basically taking a pay cut.

The problem we have is the public sector mentality of pay rise every year for no improvement in efficiency.

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Where have you been for the past 2 and 1/2 years?

In the private sector we have seen whole groups of workforces accept shorter hours or pay reductions to save jobs and skills. Remember at the start of the recession the prediction was for unemployment to hit 2.5 to 4mill. Whereas because of the actions of private sector workforces it bearley hit 2.5mill. Then last quarter the employment reports were 178K part time jobs but the people wanted full time jobs, this is another example of people basically taking a pay cut.

The problem we have is the public sector mentality of pay rise every year for no improvement in efficiency.

I got copied in on an e-mail from a public sector organisation in the south east (I am on the "all staff" e-mail list for some reason) which spelt out their budget cuts for the next few years.

They are reducing their headcount by 20% but crucially all spending has been cancelled - no more consultancy for me I guess! - so obviously the impact will be felt in the private sector.

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I've yet to see any of these reports mention the elephant in the room: net new mortgage lending. Over the period 2002-2007 it averaged £100bn a year. Last year it was £14bn. That fall of £86bn is the biggest 'cut' of all. The private sector is at least as over bloated as the public sector. Politicians seem to think that we have too few people working, when the real problem is that we have too many. More accurately, the country's wage bill is too high for our productive capacity. In recent years the gap has been filled by borrowed money. That tap has now been turned off. Since most employees are reluctant to take a pay cut, the reduction in our wage bill will be met by rising un- and under-employment.

Millions of workers/empolyers at every pay/salary level is in for a nasty shock during the next few years. Sorry, but it won't just be PSOs and diversity officers tipping the void.

It's all well and good being an all-right jack on >£50,000 a year. Just be sure your lifestyle doesn't depend on it.

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  • 143 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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