Some Beautiful New Charts On Falling Housing Costs

[Si1]

Unfortunately, that is just not the case. The market can do without FTBs. It has done without them for 2 years or more now (to some extent) and for 10 years (to a lesser extent).

What is happening is a gradual shift in property ownership. More people own multiple properties and for every person that owns 10 properties, 9 people have to rent.

We're seeing a sttructural shift in property ownership. That is all. At any point where the yield on a property makes it worth buying (in the eyes of someone who believes property is the only safe investment and only compares it with 2% on your money in the bank) the property will be bought at that point.

Which is why in 10 years time most of the people on here will still be renting and a lot of portfolios will have been expanded.

It is disgusting, but it is what is happening. Instead of everyone on here patting themselves on the back thinking that they have read the market so well and that they are going to hang around for a couple of years and buy a property at 40% below today's prices - I really wish the scales would fall from their eyes and they could see what is actually happening.

In 20 years time instead of 70% of people being property owners, it will be 50%. Another 20 years and you may have to be the child of a BTL landlord to ever have a chance of owning property.

As prices fall at the moment - it is investors that are still buying.

ponzi

[lets get it right]

On my drive to work this morning I saw a new dog walker, I assume therefore that everyone is now buying dogs

Yes, but if you read on a dog forum that no-one is buying dogs, that the price of dogs is about to crash, that you can't sell a dog for love nor money, that the pace of decline in dog prices is accelerating every day ... and you noticed that, for example, half a dozen people in your local area had, in fact, managed to sell their dogs - you might be forgiven for thinking that the people on the dog forum making dogmatic statements could well be wrong.

[Tired of Waiting]

Off all the myths that dominate this site - that is the most nonsensical. Face FACTS - the vast majority of BTL scum landlords are not mortgaged up to the hilt, regard their investment as medium to long term and there will NOT be a STAMPEDE (what a nonsensical word to use regarding the highly illiquid property market) 'for the exit'. And, prices will go back to 2007 levels. It might take 10 years, it might take 20, but they will go back.

(...)

[Georgia O'Keeffe]

Yes, but if you read on a dog forum that no-one is buying dogs, that the price of dogs is about to crash, that you can't sell a dog for love nor money, that the pace of decline in dog prices is accelerating every day ... and you noticed that, for example, half a dozen people in your local area had, in fact, managed to sell their dogs - you might be forgiven for thinking that the people on the dog forum making dogmatic statements could well be wrong.

Dogs of the right breed will always retain their value, i can see Dog prices for crappy scraggy dogs falling a long way but desirable dogs will always hold their credit inflated value

[Tired of Waiting]

Nominally prices will reach 2007 levels again, of course in real terms prices will never be this high again (...)

Never - in real terms. In a couple of generations demographics and building technology and production methods will take care of that.

People, we are struggling for shelter for goodness sake, in the XIX century! Think of how much incompetence this requires.

It will never be so bad. In a "couple of generations" we will look back at this as we now watch people hungry for Spam on old documentaries!

Snap out of it people.

Edited November 1, 2010 by Tired of Waiting

[lets get it right]

ponzi

Sigh ... if you say so. You don't want to see what is happening - fair enough.

[Tired of Waiting]

Sigh ... if you say so. You don't want to see what is happening - fair enough.

[lets get it right]

So you think that BTL landlords are all mortgaged up to the hilt and will all 'stampede for the exit' and property prices will crash dramatically?

Personally I can see prices coming down - they are coming down a bit - but it won't be BTL scum landlords selling up - they will be the buyers.

[tricksters]

Yes, but if you read on a dog forum that no-one is buying dogs, that the price of dogs is about to crash, that you can't sell a dog for love nor money, that the pace of decline in dog prices is accelerating every day ... and you noticed that, for example, half a dozen people in your local area had, in fact, managed to sell their dogs - you might be forgiven for thinking that the people on the dog forum making dogmatic statements could well be wrong.

You're a bit of a wag, aren't you.

[Tired of Waiting]

So you think that BTL landlords are all mortgaged up to the hilt and will all 'stampede for the exit' and property prices will crash dramatically?

Personally I can see prices coming down - they are coming down a bit - but it won't be BTL scum landlords selling up - they will be the buyers.

Any data to base your "conclusion"?

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[tricksters]

Could be carnage when the IRs go up!!!

[/quote

Oh good. When's that then?

[Tired of Waiting]

You're a bit of a wag, aren't you.

Nice insight!

"Respec" !

[erranta]

Excellent thanks TOW. The rally is well and truly over and the downward trend has resumed.

What about USA already hovering at minus 10 and just about to crash even further in latest reports.

True (30's style) depressionary statistics!

[ccc]

Unfortunately, that is just not the case. The market can do without FTBs. It has done without them for 2 years or more now (to some extent) and for 10 years (to a lesser extent).

What is happening is a gradual shift in property ownership. More people own multiple properties and for every person that owns 10 properties, 9 people have to rent.

We're seeing a sttructural shift in property ownership. That is all. At any point where the yield on a property makes it worth buying (in the eyes of someone who believes property is the only safe investment and only compares it with 2% on your money in the bank) the property will be bought at that point.

Which is why in 10 years time most of the people on here will still be renting and a lot of portfolios will have been expanded.

It is disgusting, but it is what is happening. Instead of everyone on here patting themselves on the back thinking that they have read the market so well and that they are going to hang around for a couple of years and buy a property at 40% below today's prices - I really wish the scales would fall from their eyes and they could see what is actually happening.

In 20 years time instead of 70% of people being property owners, it will be 50%. Another 20 years and you may have to be the child of a BTL landlord to ever have a chance of owning property.

As prices fall at the moment - it is investors that are still buying.

Really ? And they won't all fall for the normal human response and decide to cash in their chips. Because they are all so smart and will realise that their long term income is more important. So they won't sell them all and try to get out with that nice big wad of cash to allow a nice retirement in the Caribbean.

Nah - they wouldn't do that would they...

[cybernoid]

People, we are struggling for shelter for goodness sake, in the XIX century! Think of how much incompetence this requires.

It will never be so bad. In a couple of generations we will look bad as we now watch people hungry for Spam on old documentaries!

This is something that amazes me also. 2010 and a large proportion of the population in one of the most developed nations of the world are struggling to have a stable life due to the poor availability of shelter. Shelter! How hard is that to get right! It's not only incompetence, it's selfishness and greed as well. It's so sad. Think of how unlikely your birth was, and how lucky we all are to even exist at all, and what do we do with this precious gift, we slave away doing pointless crap to exist in a poor house while the few at the top live it up. It's an utter waste of life, a real tragedy.

It truly was a mistake to have come down from the trees in the first place. I might go live on a moor somewhere. You can keep your civilization, for it is not civilization, it is a misery factory.

[erranta]

So you think that BTL landlords are all mortgaged up to the hilt and will all 'stampede for the exit' and property prices will crash dramatically?

Personally I can see prices coming down - they are coming down a bit - but it won't be BTL scum landlords selling up - they will be the buyers.

We'll see -

Apparently 45% of those classed as "living in poverty" are home owners/renters from banks - many will be forced to sell off due to mounting debts/failing to pay mortgages and repos.

Many recent (2002+) amateur BTL's will do anything to save their savings

(including an en masse lemming jump - which is why loads got into property after being 'burned' by the City fraudsters in share/dot.con bust!)

Edited November 1, 2010 by erranta

[Si1]

[Tired of Waiting]

This is something that amazes me also. 2010 and a large proportion of the population in one of the most developed nations of the world are struggling to have a stable life due to the poor availability of shelter. Shelter! How hard is that to get right! It's not only incompetence, it's selfishness and greed as well. It's so sad. Think of how unlikely your birth was, and how lucky we all are to even exist at all, and what do we do with this precious gift, we slave away doing pointless crap to exist in a poor house while the few at the top live it up. It's an utter waste of life, a real tragedy.

Exactly!!!

Well said!

It truly was a mistake to have come down from the trees in the first place. I might go live on a moor somewhere. You can keep your civilization, for it is not civilization, it is a misery factory.

No no, it was not "civilisation". Most countries didn't have this credit bubble. It was mainly fecking Greenspan and Brown the b@astard.

And it was not "just a few" either. Most property owners were NIMBYing and voting for it. And MEWing. And the media went with it too.

[erranta]

This is something that amazes me also. 2010 and a large proportion of the population in one of the most developed nations of the world are struggling to have a stable life due to the poor availability of shelter. Shelter! How hard is that to get right! It's not only incompetence, it's selfishness and greed as well. It's so sad. Think of how unlikely your birth was, and how lucky we all are to even exist at all, and what do we do with this precious gift, we slave away doing pointless crap to exist in a poor house while the few at the top live it up. It's an utter waste of life, a real tragedy.

It truly was a mistake to have come down from the trees in the first place. I might go live on a moor somewhere. You can keep your civilization, for it is not civilization, it is a misery factory.

You will be promptly moved on by one of their gamekeepers who is subsidised and paid for through your taxes with CAP rebates, given to the uber wealthy for apparently 'conserving' useless/unproductive (except for their exclusive grouse shooting) heathland

(it's only meant to help out marginal poorer sheep farmers on sparse mountains clinging on to a living)

[Damik]

Unfortunately, that is just not the case. The market can do without FTBs. It has done without them for 2 years or more now (to some extent) and for 10 years (to a lesser extent).

What is happening is a gradual shift in property ownership. More people own multiple properties and for every person that owns 10 properties, 9 people have to rent.

We're seeing a sttructural shift in property ownership. That is all. At any point where the yield on a property makes it worth buying (in the eyes of someone who believes property is the only safe investment and only compares it with 2% on your money in the bank) the property will be bought at that point.

Which is why in 10 years time most of the people on here will still be renting and a lot of portfolios will have been expanded.

It is disgusting, but it is what is happening. Instead of everyone on here patting themselves on the back thinking that they have read the market so well and that they are going to hang around for a couple of years and buy a property at 40% below today's prices - I really wish the scales would fall from their eyes and they could see what is actually happening.

In 20 years time instead of 70% of people being property owners, it will be 50%. Another 20 years and you may have to be the child of a BTL landlord to ever have a chance of owning property.

As prices fall at the moment - it is investors that are still buying.

so why did the market crash in 1990 to 1995 ????????????

[erranta]

Sadly, I see this becoming true. Property is likely to become concentrated in fewer hands and the whole 'social immobility' theme gets more serious, and lower prices might well help to accentuate the effect. The market could exist perfectly well with out BTL's if we go full circle and corporates start buying property wholesale to augment their pension funds - we'd end up like we did 100 years ago with swathes of towns owned by local factories to keep their employees under control - except the factories might well be Walmarts and Tesco's plus various call centres.

None of this means that I want to see prices rise. I'll stand to benefit by trading up for cash when prices have fallen, which I fully expect them to do, but I do fear for others of the younger generations.

The beauty with this is they destroy themselves and their wealth if they get greedy buying up loads in one small area (and banks/govt/authorities start withdrawing funds/changing the rules) - look at the Wilsons in Ashford.

They want to get rid - no offers to buy the lot >>>

but they can't sell off en masse without pulling all their 'investments' down in a huge crash - so they have to release them in tiny lots whilst having to maintain them/pay interest, it's hilarious!

[xux42]

The market can do without FTBs.

Cöck post of the month.

What do you think will happen if all the skilled and qualified young people without money are excluded from the UK property market?

They will leave and the economy will go down the bog.

Anyone who sees reverting to the pre-War scenario of most property being in the hands of landlords as a good thing is an idiot.

Politicians who stood by and allowed this to happen would end up dangling from lamp-posts and rightly so.

[exiges]

I've just edited the OP, adding this one, found by Confouded:

So looking at that, it's "safe" to say they're about 30-40% overpriced, assuming we only return to to average and don't undershoot.

[exiges]

Unfortunately, that is just not the case. The market can do without FTBs. It has done without them for 2 years or more now (to some extent) and for 10 years (to a lesser extent).

Yes, it's done without them for 2yrs. Why ? Because the bank of Mum and Dad have wanted to do something useful with their savings (rotting on offensively low rates) and figure they may as well help their kids get onto the ladder.. and it's been at all time low volume of sales.

That can only go on for so long until normal market forces come into play. Such is the way with bull traps.

Edited November 1, 2010 by exiges

[Democorruptcy]

As prices fall at the moment - it is investors that are still buying.

The market can do without FTBs. It has done without them for 2 years or more now (to some extent) and for 10 years (to a lesser extent).

I'm glad you didn't say the "savvy" investors. The savvy investors wouldn't buy in a falling market and lock in a loss would they?

As to the market doing without FTBs has it has done for 10 years during a credit fuelled boom - go on change your status to "BULL" you know you want to.