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Tired of Waiting

Some Beautiful New Charts On Falling Housing Costs

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Some very beautiful Charts from Hometrack. :)

Lower housing costs are coming.

asking_price_being_achi1010.gif

percent_postcodes_direct1010.gif

time_on_the_market1010.gif

Source: http://www.hometrack.co.uk/commentary-and-analysis/house-price-survey/20101001.cfm

- - -

Edit: Confouded has found another nice one:

UK-house-prices-march042010.jpg

This one just says "tiiiimberrrr"

Or, reminds me of the Wile Coyote, just before gravity kicks in. :D

Edited by Tired of Waiting

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Superb!

Next 6 months will be bearfest territory.

There is going to be a stampede for the exit from BTLs who realise that prices aren't going to get back to 2007 levels, and from forced sales from public sector redundancies.

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Superb!

Next 6 months will be bearfest territory.

There is going to be a stampede for the exit from BTLs who realise that prices aren't going to get back to 2007 levels, and from forced sales from public sector redundancies.

Could be carnage when the IRs go up!!!

Anyone with any sense will have already realised this, realised there had been a rally and got out.

London could see the biggest property crash in history, IMHO, and leave people reeling from it for decades.

Not to worry :lol::lol::lol::lol:

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Superb!

Next 6 months will be bearfest territory.

There is going to be a stampede for the exit from BTLs who realise that prices aren't going to get back to 2007 levels, and from forced sales from public sector redundancies.

Yep.

BTW, I really like your sig.

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Wales (91%) and the North East (91.3%) have the weakest underlying pricing in terms of the proportion of asking price being achieved.

Explains why I am seeing new houses coming on the market pumping up asking prices.

As houses, at best, gt about 90% of asking price and every commentator now thinks prices will fall 10% in 2011... it makes sense for any buyer to now offer 20% below asking price... I mean, you wait a year, prices will have fallen 10% and you still only offer 90%.

But I doubt you will get an understanding of that from sellers and most EAs.

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We are going to see a return to bear market psychology - too many properties flooding the market, so to get a sale you have to cut the price to a bargain; but then everyone else does the same thing, so eventually your property no longer stands out as a bargain, then a new round of cutting ensues... ad infinitum. That is why the slide will accelerate down. Additional shocks - higher unemployment, interest rate rises - have the potential to again accelerate the slide. Conversely, lower interest rate or improving employment could see a reveral... nah.. can't see either of those happening.

The UK housing market got a stay of execution in 2008/2009 when interest rates were slashed to 0.5%. There are no bunnies left in the hat now, unfortunately. Furthermore I also believe that this government is in no way as committed to protecting the previous administration's bubble. It's painfully obvious that house prices are overvalued and that a correction is required for the economic health of the country. The only question is how to do it in a politically sensitive way while hurting as few people as possible. But panic is impossible to control.

Edited by Van

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There is going to be a stampede for the exit from BTLs who realise that prices aren't going to get back to 2007 levels

Off all the myths that dominate this site - that is the most nonsensical. Face FACTS - the vast majority of BTL scum landlords are not mortgaged up to the hilt, regard their investment as medium to long term and there will NOT be a STAMPEDE (what a nonsensical word to use regarding the highly illiquid property market) 'for the exit'. And, prices will go back to 2007 levels. It might take 10 years, it might take 20, but they will go back.

... and from forced sales from public sector redundancies.

The vast majority of which will be voluntary from retirement and people leaving of their own volition. Another stampede that won't take place.

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Off all the myths that dominate this site - that is the most nonsensical. Face FACTS - the vast majority of BTL scum landlords are not mortgaged up to the hilt, regard their investment as medium to long term and there will NOT be a STAMPEDE (what a nonsensical word to use regarding the highly illiquid property market) 'for the exit'. (...)

Stampede urges are not deterred by a narrow exit door, quite the opposite. And these are always the most tragic.

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Off all the myths that dominate this site - that is the most nonsensical. Face FACTS - the vast majority of BTL scum landlords are not mortgaged up to the hilt, regard their investment as medium to long term and there will NOT be a STAMPEDE (what a nonsensical word to use regarding the highly illiquid property market) 'for the exit'. And, prices will go back to 2007 levels. It might take 10 years, it might take 20, but they will go back.

The vast majority of which will be voluntary from retirement and people leaving of their own volition. Another stampede that won't take place.

Heem..thought even the Wilsons are busy selling ?

Seen a few BTL up into the market though (e.g. a 10 bedroom semi detached house, probably used for HMO).

Edited by easybetman

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I exited in August 2007 :ph34r:

We sold October 2007 looking at those graphs we waited a little too long, must explain why we only got 96% of the asking price (meeting them halfway on their original -8%). A month after Northern Rock -4% didn't seem too bad.

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We are going to see a return to bear market psychology - too many properties flooding the market, so to get a sale you have to cut the price to a bargain; but then everyone else does the same thing, so eventually your property no longer stands out as a bargain, then a new round of cutting ensues... ad infinitum. That is why the slide will accelerate down. Additional shocks - higher unemployment, interest rate rises - have the potential to again accelerate the slide. Conversely, lower interest rate or improving employment could see a reveral... nah.. can't see either of those happening.

The UK housing market got a stay of execution in 2008/2009 when interest rates were slashed to 0.5%. There are no bunnies left in the hat now, unfortunately. Furthermore I also believe that this government is in no way as committed to protecting the previous administration's bubble. It's painfully obvious that house prices are overvalued and that a correction is required for the economic health of the country. The only question is how to do it in a politically sensitive way while hurting as few people as possible. But panic is impossible to control.

And, meanwhile, back out in the ACTUAL housing market, a house on the market up the road from me, which has been on the market for about 3 months, which has had the price cut from £335k to £315k has just gone under offer. Yes, I know it's not SOLD yet - but it will be soon. And if it falls through it might go down another 10k - but it will sell. They all do eventually (or get taken off the market).

Some of the comments I am reading on here now are going from the sublime to the ridiculous. In my life I have seen two marked and one minor house price corrections. House prices going down are amazingly sticky. People will only sell at a lower price than they think their property is worth if they are desperate. And we are nowhere near desperation yet.

We are going to see a return to bear market psychology - too many properties flooding the market, so to get a sale you have to cut the price to a bargain; but then everyone else does the same thing, so eventually your property no longer stands out as a bargain, then a new round of cutting ensues... ad infinitum. That is why the slide will accelerate down.

Pure bunkum. The slide will not accelerate down. It may well carry on down, but it will decelerate if history is any indicator.

But panic is impossible to control.

Panic! Oh come on! Panic in the housing market. Panic in a market where with the best will in the world it can take 3 to 6 months to sell something.

How, exactly, would panic manifest itself? Would people try to sell their houses in the pub for cash? Please, somebody, anybody ... take my house off my hands ... I'm in a right state of panic, you can have it for any price you care to name.

I've known plenty of desperation in falling markets. Change of agent. Praying. Price drop. Another agent. More praying. Worry that no-one will ever buy it. Plenty of worry. Take it off the market - even put it an auction. Never seen panic though.

When you start seeing dutch auctions with no reserves - then you'll know there is panic about.

And as prices drop the BTLetters will buy up the bargains locking more people out of the market and into high rents.

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Could be carnage when the IRs go up!!!

Anyone with any sense will have already realised this, realised there had been a rally and got out.

London could see the biggest property crash in history, IMHO, and leave people reeling from it for decades.

Not to worry :lol::lol::lol::lol:

Before you break out the champagne... may I gently remind you that so far, the poster on this site who has best predicted future movements in house prices is... Sibley.

True, he did not predict the bank bailout, QE, or the cuts-that-are-not-really-cuts of the current government that have staved off the crash... but then, neither did 99% of the bears on this site (myself included).

I am a bear, but I am also a realist.

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Off all the myths that dominate this site - that is the most nonsensical. Face FACTS - the vast majority of BTL scum landlords are not mortgaged up to the hilt, regard their investment as medium to long term and there will NOT be a STAMPEDE (what a nonsensical word to use regarding the highly illiquid property market) 'for the exit'. And, prices will go back to 2007 levels. It might take 10 years, it might take 20, but they will go back.

The vast majority of which will be voluntary from retirement and people leaving of their own volition. Another stampede that won't take place.

Nominally prices will reach 2007 levels again, of course in real terms prices will never be this high again for a couple of generations at least (when the lessons of this property bubble have long been forgotten).

However, there is some truth in some of what you are saying. But even so, I see a gradual build up housing stock that owners can't shift, that will eventually have to come to market sooner or later and deflate prices.

We're talking about old people wanting to downsize, the infirm who need to sell because they have to pay nursing home bills, the divorcees who want to sell and settle the finances, the inherited property the kids want to cash in. These sort of sales can be held off for a while, but eventually they have to go to market at a rate people can afford to pay for them, if the owners want to sell them. It's also important to remember that most of these places (the ones belonging to the oldies) will have full equity, so lowering the asking price isn't going to leave anyone with negative equity, but will lower the market price for similar properties in their area when sold at a discount, as other sellers will need to match that discount to get a sale too.

Housing is almost impossible to buy for FTB's, if they are frozen out of the market at current price levels something has to give eventually. Some people will have to sell at a lower price, the market can't stay paralysed forever, people have to get on with their lives.

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Heem..thought even the Wilsons are busy selling ?

Are they? What's the evidence? And they are the exception rather than the rule. Not many BTL scum landlords went to the extremes they did. Seem to remember reading even they have surprisingly low LTV.

Seen a few BTL up into the market though (e.g. a 10 bedroom semi detached house, probably used for HMO).

?

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And, meanwhile, back out in the ACTUAL housing market, a house on the market up the road from me, which has been on the market for about 3 months, which has had the price cut from £335k to £315k has just gone under offer. Yes, I know it's not SOLD yet

On my drive to work this morning I saw a new dog walker, I assume therefore that everyone is now buying dogs :rolleyes:

Trying to argue on the basis of anecdotal makes people look so stupendously stupid. House sales at a rate of 10,000s, your single example is almost as irrelevant as the post you just wrote about it.

I'm not expecting a major property crash, and I agree with a number of your points but for the love of god don't band around anecdotals as though they have any greater validity than the shape the tea leaves left in my last cup of tea.

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Housing is almost impossible to buy for FTB's, if they are frozen out of the market at current price levels something has to give eventually.

Unfortunately, that is just not the case. The market can do without FTBs. It has done without them for 2 years or more now (to some extent) and for 10 years (to a lesser extent).

What is happening is a gradual shift in property ownership. More people own multiple properties and for every person that owns 10 properties, 9 people have to rent.

We're seeing a sttructural shift in property ownership. That is all. At any point where the yield on a property makes it worth buying (in the eyes of someone who believes property is the only safe investment and only compares it with 2% on your money in the bank) the property will be bought at that point.

Which is why in 10 years time most of the people on here will still be renting and a lot of portfolios will have been expanded.

It is disgusting, but it is what is happening. Instead of everyone on here patting themselves on the back thinking that they have read the market so well and that they are going to hang around for a couple of years and buy a property at 40% below today's prices - I really wish the scales would fall from their eyes and they could see what is actually happening.

In 20 years time instead of 70% of people being property owners, it will be 50%. Another 20 years and you may have to be the child of a BTL landlord to ever have a chance of owning property.

As prices fall at the moment - it is investors that are still buying.

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Off all the myths that dominate this site - that is the most nonsensical. Face FACTS - the vast majority of BTL scum landlords are not mortgaged up to the hilt, regard their investment as medium to long term and there will NOT be a STAMPEDE (what a nonsensical word to use regarding the highly illiquid property market) 'for the exit'. And, prices will go back to 2007 levels. It might take 10 years, it might take 20, but they will go back.

The vast majority of which will be voluntary from retirement and people leaving of their own volition. Another stampede that won't take place.

That may be so. But in 07/08 prices still dropped more than 20% in around 18 months. And what you said was as true then as today. The conditions are set for a re run and I expect at least another 20% from here.

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  • 238 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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