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Oil And The End Of Globalization

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Here's a link to a peak oil related speech that I think is interesting. Should we avoid chaos in the event of reducing oil production and rising oil prices, we could end up recovering lots of jobs lost to globalisation and with more balanced economies.

I think peak oil, as a reality or as a convenient propaganda theme to generate 'much needed inflation' is likely to happen so it's interesting to see it's impact.

http://aspo.tv/2010/10/08/jeff-rubin-keynote-oil-and-the-end-of-globalization/

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Here's a link to a peak oil related speech that I think is interesting. Should we avoid chaos in the event of reducing oil production and rising oil prices, we could end up recovering lots of jobs lost to globalisation and with more balanced economies.

I think peak oil, as a reality or as a convenient propaganda theme to generate 'much needed inflation' is likely to happen so it's interesting to see it's impact.

http://aspo.tv/2010/10/08/jeff-rubin-keynote-oil-and-the-end-of-globalization/

Erm the Chinese/Japanese are already looking into nuclear powered container ships. In fact the Russians already have some smaller ones. I posted about this about 7 weeks ago. Plus there is always backup. The Baikal Amur mainlane railway was designed specifically for this pupose! It is heavily underused the transiberia could be quadruple tracked too. Not to mention that China made some announement about a high speed rail link all the way to Europe.

Also who says it will pan out like you say it will? I.e. companies have to move back? In that firstly companies might not even sell stuff to us when the currency is Zimbabwe style, secondly raw materials tend to come via big ships. Therefore if we have no raw materials how can we build anything here? We'll just get less and less stuff until the UK represents Gaza.

Also if stuff is made here there is the automation problem, and even if some things can't be automated you can monitor and control processes from fast net connections from overseas.

Edited by ken_ichikawa

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Also who says it will pan out like you say it will?

I'm not saying anything, just listening to what that guy (who seems knowledgeable) says. He describes a more optimistic peak oil outcome that I am attracted to.

I think NatGas ships are looking good for the future, although the current overcapacity will make investment in new ships a bit harder. As far as Nukes go, I have doubts they would be allowed to enter commercial ports that easily.

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We will not see peak oil in our lifetime or possibly for over 100 years based upon current global consumption.

There is buckets of oil

What there isn't is buckets of oil at $82.50 bbl

The price of crude will continue to rise, governments will continue to tax it, refined products and useage by the consumer.

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I'm not saying anything, just listening to what that guy (who seems knowledgeable) says. He describes a more optimistic peak oil outcome that I am attracted to.

I think NatGas ships are looking good for the future, although the current overcapacity will make investment in new ships a bit harder. As far as Nukes go, I have doubts they would be allowed to enter commercial ports that easily.

The USS Nimitz docked in Hong Kong a few months ago it was parked about 1300 metres from a residential district. Get a marine platoon onboard each gigantic container ship and problem solved.

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We will not see peak oil in our lifetime or possibly for over 100 years based upon current global consumption.

There is buckets of oil

What there isn't is buckets of oil at $82.50 bbl

The price of crude will continue to rise, governments will continue to tax it, refined products and useage by the consumer.

If there's buckets of it.....why should it continue to rise? Or are the buckets not easily accessible?

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We will not see peak oil in our lifetime or possibly for over 100 years based upon current global consumption.

There is buckets of oil

What there isn't is buckets of oil at $82.50 bbl

The price of crude will continue to rise, governments will continue to tax it, refined products and useage by the consumer.

EROEI

same thing.

western economies based on CHEAP OIL.

end of thread.

epic fail.

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You clearly don't know how peak oil is defined. We are there already and the oil majors are facing extinction within 25yrs. Go listen to XOM and Shell and BPs annual investors communications. They are all suggesting everything is fine and that reserves replacement ratios are at recent highs: what they don't focus on is the replacements are b.o.e. (barrel oil equivalent) for tar sands (bitumen) and shale gas. That means the majors are consigned to 'dirty' oil, and gas that's released by creating huge fracture networks using toxic fluids. When those fracture networks form, some create pipelines into the overlying potable water aquifers -then what? The answer is no one knows what large scale production will do to mother earth......big oil is getting desperate.

We will not see peak oil in our lifetime or possibly for over 100 years based upon current global consumption.

There is buckets of oil

What there isn't is buckets of oil at $82.50 bbl

The price of crude will continue to rise, governments will continue to tax it, refined products and useage by the consumer.

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You clearly don't know how peak oil is defined. We are there already and the oil majors are facing extinction within 25yrs. Go listen to XOM and Shell and BPs annual investors communications. They are all suggesting everything is fine and that reserves replacement ratios are at recent highs: what they don't focus on is the replacements are b.o.e. (barrel oil equivalent) for tar sands (bitumen) and shale gas. That means the majors are consigned to 'dirty' oil, and gas that's released by creating huge fracture networks using toxic fluids. When those fracture networks form, some create pipelines into the overlying potable water aquifers -then what? The answer is no one knows what large scale production will do to mother earth......big oil is getting desperate.

With the greatest of respect I do.

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EROEI

same thing.

western economies based on CHEAP OIL.

end of thread.

epic fail.

Exactly. EROEI is the key to all of this.

Sure there is plenty of oil left... Tar Sands, Deep Sea, Oil Shale etc.

It will be just too expensive to burn.

For those ostriches who believe that some miracle tech will replace oil... wake up.

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You clearly don't know how peak oil is defined. We are there already and the oil majors are facing extinction within 25yrs. Go listen to XOM and Shell and BPs annual investors communications. They are all suggesting everything is fine and that reserves replacement ratios are at recent highs: what they don't focus on is the replacements are b.o.e. (barrel oil equivalent) for tar sands (bitumen) and shale gas. That means the majors are consigned to 'dirty' oil, and gas that's released by creating huge fracture networks using toxic fluids. When those fracture networks form, some create pipelines into the overlying potable water aquifers -then what? The answer is no one knows what large scale production will do to mother earth......big oil is getting desperate.

:o

1973_Gas_shortage.jpg

1973Crisis1.jpg

Gas_Line.gif

Sorrynogass.jpg

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With the greatest of respect I do.

with no respect you don't

at least not in the context of what increses in oil prices will do to the global economy.

look at what happened when oil hit $180 barrel.

in terms of oil all the low hanging fuit has been picked.

cheap energy will be a thing of the poast within 5-10 years.

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with no respect you don't

at least not in the context of what increses in oil prices will do to the global economy.

look at what happened when oil hit $180 barrel.

in terms of oil all the low hanging fuit has been picked.

cheap energy will be a thing of the poast within 5-10 years.

I sold at $179, a good call if I say so myself.

I trade the stuff, physical and paper.

Fundamentals are that oil today is likely overpriced by $30 approx based upon speculation.

OPEC producers 2 weeks ago revised their reserves, some with evidence, some without.

There is no shortage of crude oil, only at the current price.

Carry on believing what you will old stick but don't spread alarm where there is none.

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I sold at $179, a good call if I say so myself.

I trade the stuff, physical and paper.

Fundamentals are that oil today is likely overpriced by $30 approx based upon speculation.

OPEC producers 2 weeks ago revised their reserves, some with evidence, some without.

There is no shortage of crude oil, only at the current price.

Carry on believing what you will old stick but don't spread alarm where there is none.

You trade physical oil.. interesting. Do you own an oil taker?

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You trade physical oil.. interesting. Do you own an oil taker?

No.

Some storage capacity thankfully.

Can use tankers as floating storage obviously, freight rates remain weak.

Very tough markets at the moment especially in Europe. Chinese imports up again at 8.7% year on year.

Refinery margins improved dramatically as 11 of the 12 French were effectively shut.

The Gasoil boyz have made a ton of money over the past 3 weeks. Price being $35 per ton over Platts pricing. They'll have a good Xmas.

Won't bore you any more!

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We will not see peak oil in our lifetime or possibly for over 100 years based upon current global consumption.

There is buckets of oil

What there isn't is buckets of oil at $82.50 bbl

The price of crude will continue to rise, governments will continue to tax it, refined products and useage by the consumer.

Peak oil is not about oil running out.

Peak oil is about how supply stops rising and begins to decline. This, in the face of undiminished demand, causes the price to inexorably rise.

When you state that oil at $82 per barrel or less is now going to be a thing of the past, you are describing the price-consequence of peak oil

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I was hoping that you would put a monetary figure on it. It may be that there is no maximum price after all.

Personally speaking I just can't see a problem with supply. We also have new techniques for extracting different forms of hydrocarbons and these methods will now start taking up market share. There is no end in sight.

Such as, and extracted from what, and where is this resource?

Of course there is an end in sight, we just can't judge the distance, and our speed of approach keeps varying with economic vicissitudes. After all, the US and UK peaked in oil production long ago, in fact 60% of the world's current oil production has already peaked, and 40% is still growing (yet to reach peak). Note the UK's precarious position in the table below, 47% off-peak.

Country Peak Prod. 2008 Prod. % Off Peak Peak Year United States 11297 7337 -35% 1970 Venezuela 3754 2566 -32% 1970 Libya 3357 1846 -45% 1970 Other Middle East 79 33 -58% 1970 Kuwait 3339 2784 -17% 1972 Iran 6060 4325 -29% 1974 Indonesia 1685 1004 -41% 1977 Romania 313 99 -68% 1977 Trinidad & Tobago 230 149 -35% 1978 Iraq 3489 2423 -31% 1979 Brunei 261 175 -33% 1979 Tunisia 118 89 -25% 1980 Peru 196 120 -39% 1982 Cameroon 181 84 -54% 1985 Other Europe & Eurasia 762 427 -44% 1986 Russian Federation 11484 9886 -14% 1987* Egypt 941 722 -23% 1993 Other Asia Pacific 276 237 -14% 1993 India 774 766 -1% 1995* Syria 596 398 -33% 1995 Gabon 365 235 -36% 1996 Argentina 890 682 -23% 1998 Colombia 838 618 -26% 1999 United Kingdom 2909 1544 -47% 1999 Rep. of Congo (Brazzaville) 266 249 -6% 1999* Uzbekistan 191 111 -42% 1999 Australia 809 556 -31% 2000 Norway 3418 2455 -28% 2001 Oman 961 728 -24% 2001 Yemen 457 305 -33% 2002 Other S. & Cent. America 153 138 -10% 2003* Mexico 3824 3157 -17% 2004 Malaysia 793 754 -5% 2004* Vietnam 427 317 -26% 2004 Denmark 390 287 -26% 2004 Other Africa 75 54 -28% 2004* Nigeria 2580 2170 -16% 2005* Chad 173 127 -27% 2005* Italy 127 108 -15% 2005* Ecuador 545 514 -6% 2006* Saudi Arabia 11114 10846 -2% 2005 / Growing Canada 3320 3238 -2% 2007 / Growing Algeria 2016 1993 -1% 2007 / Growing Equatorial Guinea 368 361 -2% 2007 / Growing China 3795 3795 - Growing United Arab Emirates 2980 2980 - Growing Brazil 1899 1899 - Growing Angola 1875 1875 - Growing Kazakhstan 1554 1554 - Growing Qatar 1378 1378 - Growing Azerbaijan 914 914 - Growing Sudan 480 480 - Growing Thailand 325 325 - Growing Turkmenistan 205 205 - Growing Peaked / Flat Countries Total - 49597 - 60.6% of world oil production Growing Countries Total - 32223 - 39.4% of world oil production

ed. sorry, table has lost it's formatting

Edited by corevalue

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Such as, and extracted from what, and where is this resource?

Of course there is an end in sight, we just can't judge the distance, and our speed of approach keeps varying with economic vicissitudes. After all, the US and UK peaked in oil production long ago, in fact 60% of the world's current oil production has already peaked, and 40% is still growing (yet to reach peak). Note the UK's precarious position in the table below, 47% off-peak.

Country Peak Prod. 2008 Prod. % Off Peak Peak Year United States 11297 7337 -35% 1970 Venezuela 3754 2566 -32% 1970 Libya 3357 1846 -45% 1970 Other Middle East 79 33 -58% 1970 Kuwait 3339 2784 -17% 1972 Iran 6060 4325 -29% 1974 Indonesia 1685 1004 -41% 1977 Romania 313 99 -68% 1977 Trinidad & Tobago 230 149 -35% 1978 Iraq 3489 2423 -31% 1979 Brunei 261 175 -33% 1979 Tunisia 118 89 -25% 1980 Peru 196 120 -39% 1982 Cameroon 181 84 -54% 1985 Other Europe & Eurasia 762 427 -44% 1986 Russian Federation 11484 9886 -14% 1987* Egypt 941 722 -23% 1993 Other Asia Pacific 276 237 -14% 1993 India 774 766 -1% 1995* Syria 596 398 -33% 1995 Gabon 365 235 -36% 1996 Argentina 890 682 -23% 1998 Colombia 838 618 -26% 1999 United Kingdom 2909 1544 -47% 1999 Rep. of Congo (Brazzaville) 266 249 -6% 1999* Uzbekistan 191 111 -42% 1999 Australia 809 556 -31% 2000 Norway 3418 2455 -28% 2001 Oman 961 728 -24% 2001 Yemen 457 305 -33% 2002 Other S. & Cent. America 153 138 -10% 2003* Mexico 3824 3157 -17% 2004 Malaysia 793 754 -5% 2004* Vietnam 427 317 -26% 2004 Denmark 390 287 -26% 2004 Other Africa 75 54 -28% 2004* Nigeria 2580 2170 -16% 2005* Chad 173 127 -27% 2005* Italy 127 108 -15% 2005* Ecuador 545 514 -6% 2006* Saudi Arabia 11114 10846 -2% 2005 / Growing Canada 3320 3238 -2% 2007 / Growing Algeria 2016 1993 -1% 2007 / Growing Equatorial Guinea 368 361 -2% 2007 / Growing China 3795 3795 - Growing United Arab Emirates 2980 2980 - Growing Brazil 1899 1899 - Growing Angola 1875 1875 - Growing Kazakhstan 1554 1554 - Growing Qatar 1378 1378 - Growing Azerbaijan 914 914 - Growing Sudan 480 480 - Growing Thailand 325 325 - Growing Turkmenistan 205 205 - Growing Peaked / Flat Countries Total - 49597 - 60.6% of world oil production Growing Countries Total - 32223 - 39.4% of world oil production

ed. sorry, table has lost it's formatting

Do a screenshot of the table in the website in question, then up load it to something like photobucket and link as an image.

Alternatively, if you provide a link to the page where the table is, I will do the screen-shot and link

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A%20huge%20amount%20of%20oil%20is%20available%20rev.png

So, onshore crude oil is easier and cheaper to extract than offshore or shale is it?

No shit sherlock.... :lol:

Would you please explain the differences in speed-of-flow and EROEI for these different sources relative to demand?

Edited by tallguy

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The USS Nimitz docked in Hong Kong a few months ago it was parked about 1300 metres from a residential district. Get a marine platoon onboard each gigantic container ship and problem solved.

:) Yes, but there is a slight difference between political/military and commercial isn't there.

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When our oil-dependent, long-distance lifestyles become untenable. That's when.

But, uh, sending something thousands of miles by boat is generally cheaper than sending it hundreds of miles by truck.

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  • 140 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
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      • up 5%



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