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Realistbear

Sterling Taking Off Vs. Euro, $, Yen And Swissie

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1 GBP $1.60238 Euro1.15171

Looks like we are the last man standing with a more or less intact propety market and no job losses of any significance. The "biggest cuts since WW2" are not having any impact as most of the lost jobs are being transferred to the private sector and as consumer spending recovers there will be plenty of demand to keep the factories steaming ahead.

Have we really pulled it off and was the Brown debacle fixed so quickly and painlessly? Was the blistering 0.8% GDP "growth" really the big turnaround (down from 1.2% in the 2nd q)?*

_______________________

* The U.S. economy expanded at a 2 percent annual rate in the third quarter and inflation cooled, underscoring the views of Federal Reserve policy makers who say more stimulus will be needed to spur growth.

Edited by Realistbear

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1 GBP $1.60238 Euro1.15171

Looks like we are the last man standing with a more or less intact propety market and no job losses of any significance. The "biggest cuts since WW2" are not having any impact as most of the lost jobs are being transferred to the private sector and as consumer spending recovers there will be plenty of demand to keep the factories steaming ahead.

Have we really pulled it off and was the Brown debacle fixed so quickly and painlessly? Was the blistering 0.8% GDP "growth" really the big turnaround (down from 1.2% in the 2nd q)?*

_______________________

* The U.S. economy expanded at a 2 percent annual rate in the third quarter and inflation cooled, underscoring the views of Federal Reserve policy makers who say more stimulus will be needed to spur growth.

When will we have dollar parity? Soon methinks.

Where's CGNAO nowadays?

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/eu-treads-uncharted-waters-to-defend-single-currency-afp-476e208bcdf8.html?x=0

EU treads uncharted waters to defend single currency
:EuropeCurrencies.
Claire Rosemberg, 16:26, Friday 29 October 2010
The European Union faced a new round of risky treaty change on Friday after its leaders agreed to embark on landmark reforms designed to fend off another financial crisis by shoring up the euro.

Looks like the robustness of our economy and the absense of any signs of stress (accordng to IMF ysterday) is making the £ a safehaven from the Euro.

Edited by Realistbear

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1 GBP $1.60238 Euro1.15171

Looks like we are the last man standing with a more or less intact propety market and no job losses of any significance. The "biggest cuts since WW2" are not having any impact as most of the lost jobs are being transferred to the private sector and as consumer spending recovers there will be plenty of demand to keep the factories steaming ahead.

Have we really pulled it off and was the Brown debacle fixed so quickly and painlessly? Was the blistering 0.8% GDP "growth" really the big turnaround (down from 1.2% in the 2nd q)?*

_______________________

* The U.S. economy expanded at a 2 percent annual rate in the third quarter and inflation cooled, underscoring the views of Federal Reserve policy makers who say more stimulus will be needed to spur growth.

And it looks like Sterling rising on all the terrible news about house prices falling. It would seem house prices and Sterling are not linked. Strange days.

Edited by Harold Bishop

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1 GBP $1.60238 Euro1.15171

Looks like we are the last man standing with a more or less intact propety market and no job losses of any significance. The "biggest cuts since WW2" are not having any impact as most of the lost jobs are being transferred to the private sector and as consumer spending recovers there will be plenty of demand to keep the factories steaming ahead.

Have we really pulled it off and was the Brown debacle fixed so quickly and painlessly? Was the blistering 0.8% GDP "growth" really the big turnaround (down from 1.2% in the 2nd q)?*

_______________________

* The U.S. economy expanded at a 2 percent annual rate in the third quarter and inflation cooled, underscoring the views of Federal Reserve policy makers who say more stimulus will be needed to spur growth.

Old chap only the other day you said we (the UK and sterling) were next in line for attack.

Which is it to be?

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Old chap only the other day you said we (the UK and sterling) were next in line for attack.

Which is it to be?

I don't blame RB, the news spouts bizarre new figures and opinion every day now. It is almost farcical!

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/eu-treads-uncharted-waters-to-defend-single-currency-afp-476e208bcdf8.html?x=0

EU treads uncharted waters to defend single currency
:EuropeCurrencies.
Claire Rosemberg, 16:26, Friday 29 October 2010
The European Union faced a new round of risky treaty change on Friday after its leaders agreed to embark on landmark reforms designed to fend off another financial crisis by shoring up the euro.

Looks like the robustness of our economy and the absense of any signs of stress (accordng to IMF ysterday) is making the £ a safehaven from the Euro.

The euro is still hoding its ground. For how long though nobody knows.

Let's not forget that whatever the reasons, the sterling was €1.45 three years ago.

Only 1 month ago the sterling was worth €1.20 or thereabouts, only when (and IF!) the pound goes back to 1.4 I'd be inclined to say that it's doing really well...

Last time I was back in Euroland - a year ago - (the equivalent of) a pint was about €4.50....., probably gone up by now...

Go figure...

Edited by Capt. Picard

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It's a cunning disguise for the imminent hypefinflationary holocaust and monetary collapse doncha know.

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Sterling 's been bashing against 1-60 for weeks now then falling back. If it hits 1-62 then something's changed. Otherwise that's unremarkable.

And Sterling's been dropping against the Euro for weeks. It was 1-22 at the start of September. Going back to 1-15 is nothing much.

Sorry to rain on your parade but a couple of days movement isn't enough to draw conclusions.

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Looks like the robustness of our economy and the absense of any signs of stress (accordng to IMF ysterday) is making the £ a safehaven from the Euro.

I had been pondering this very point lately

The US is well on the skids, with both USD and JPY also being pulled down by rising tensions with China, and EUR is being battered by the likes of Greece

By contrast the UK colalition government seems remarkably focused on tackling inbalances at various levels, stronger GDP pushes back the prospect of QE2

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I had been pondering this very point lately

The US is well on the skids, with both USD and JPY also being pulled down by rising tensions with China, and EUR is being battered by the likes of Greece

By contrast the UK colalition government seems remarkably focused on tackling inbalances at various levels, stronger GDP pushes back the prospect of QE2

Double down on Sterling then. You know it makes sense. :blink:

Here's one way to do it:

http://www.etfsecurities.com/fxl/gbp/etfs_short_usd_long_gbp.asp

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When will we have dollar parity? Soon methinks.

Where's CGNAO nowadays?

err no.

We will more likely see close to 2 dollars to the pound before we see parity.

I really don't understand how people can see sterling as a weaker currency than the euro or even the dollar.

The euro is like an atomic bomb very slowly ticking down to explosion. About 90% of its members are bankrupt and worthless. Actually, all its members apart from Germany are bankrupt and worthless.

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That sounds like the basis for a good leveraged bet. :rolleyes:

err no.

We will more likely see close to 2 dollars to the pound before we see parity.

I really don't understand how people can see sterling as a weaker currency than the euro or even the dollar.

The euro is like an atomic bomb very slowly ticking down to explosion. About 90% of its members are bankrupt and worthless. Actually, all its members apart from Germany are bankrupt and worthless.

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When will we have dollar parity? Soon methinks.

Where's CGNAO nowadays?

Dollar parity? You're having a laugh aintcha?

Wasn't that long ago we reached 2 dollars to the Zimpound. I'd say we're heading in that direction.

Early days in the new gubbimint and it looks like they intend to sort the problems out. The markets seem to be taking some note of that.

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The US is well on the skids, with both USD and JPY also being pulled down by rising tensions with China, and EUR is being battered by the likes of Greece

When sterling recovers to 250 against the yen, like it was 3 years ago, then I'll feel like having a celebration party. Or even 180. BIoody heII - I'll even settle for 160. I can't afford to go visit the wife's friends & family in Kyoto and Okinawa at the moment without dipping very deeply into 5thumbs meagre savings.

Sterling recovery? What recovery?

:o

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GBP USD Closed at over $1.60 for the first time in about 8 months up from 1.56~ on Monday. Big move for a single week. Seems a reasonable chance it will kick on towards $1.70, the high in 2009 over the next few weeks. The fed's money printing is revealed next week should be interesting.

FX seems to be more about momentum than fundamentals really. Once a run get's going you need some really surprising fundamentals to change course. Looks like it is headed up for now.

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Old chap only the other day you said we (the UK and sterling) were next in line for attack.

Which is it to be?

Would anyone care to guess? Because guesses are the only way to accurately forecast anything these days.

The IMF upgrade last week was based on a feel-good factor that the Koalishon had contained the fallout from the Brown years. Why would the IMF want to believe that?

IMO, and its not an attempt to guess the future prices of anything, is that we have entered a new era of computer driven markets that play on momentum rather than fundamentals. Some time ago Bloomberg ran a farticle to the effect that there was roving spotlight that would focus first on the Euro, then the $ and then £. For now the $ is in focus. We have seen the breakdown of the traditional link between the £ and house prices that is for sure.

With $10TR a day forecast to be traded on Forex in the years ahead you can see how much there is to gain by momentum gambling.

Our GDP "grew" at 0.8% last Q which represented a 33% drop from the prevous Q at 1.2%. The US, on the other hand, saw some actual growth which suggests the overall fundamentals (no longer relevant) for the UK are not so good--a Sterling buy nonetheless:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Dollar-mixed-after-report-apf-2321365593.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=

The U.S. economy grew 2 percent from July to September, the Commerce Department said, faster than the 1.7 percent pace from April-June. But economists say that's too slow to get employers hiring enough to bring down the 9.6 percent unemployment rate.

Edited by Realistbear

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When sterling recovers to 250 against the yen, like it was 3 years ago, then I'll feel like having a celebration party. Or even 180. BIoody heII - I'll even settle for 160. I can't afford to go visit the wife's friends & family in Kyoto and Okinawa at the moment without dipping very deeply into 5thumbs meagre savings.

Sterling recovery? What recovery?

:o

Japan is an extreme case though, since the whole world adopted their ZIRP policy JPY had now where else to go but up

The other factor often forgotten is carry trade financed credit - before the credit crunch UK MBS was about 30% financed with relatively cheaper JPY, USD, EUR which created massive demand for GBP in the conversion. In effect Banks were borrowing at a cheaper rate in JPY, USD, EUR then exchanging for GBP in order to finance their mortgage books.

So it's kind of inevitable that GBP would fall as lending has collapsed and carry trades reverse. It's not a bad thing (for you perhaps!) it's a sign of the UK rebalancing

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/8097188/Doomsayers-are-selling-Britain-short-says-top-fund-manager-Tom-Dobell.html

Doomsayers are selling Britain short, says top fund manager Tom Dobell
Tom Dobell, manager of M&G Recovery, believes the UK has plenty to offer investors during the recovery.
By Ian Cowie
Published: 7:00AM BST 30 Oct 2010

With the recovereh locked in, house prices resilient and "only" 7.7% unemployed it would seem that we have indeed gotten past Brown's mess and its blue skies ahead. All so painless, so easy and so warm and fuzzy.

But what is wrong with this picture?

1. Houise prices are not resilient--they are dropping fast/

2. The employment picture is far worse as many of the so-called employed are part time

3. GDP dropped 33% last Q and there are no indicators pointing to a rise in manufacturing or exports.

Are fund managers like Thomas ramping to get people back in stocks and are FOREX traders just playing Sterling momentum until its time to dump?

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Market Oracle on 4th October:

GBP Final Forecast Conclusion

The British Pound is in a multi-year bull market against the U.S. Dollar, I expect the current phase of this bull market to see GBP trend higher into mid 2011 targeting a rate of between £/$ 1.80 and £/$1.90 as the below forecast trend graph illustrates (current £/$ 1.58), though I would not be surprised if GBP trades above £/$1.90. I also expect sterling to strengthen against the Euro that targets a trend high E/£ 1.30 (current E/£1.15). However the forex markets will be just as volatile as they have been during the past 2 years as future sovereign debt and banking sector crisis will temporarily result in a surge of safe haven dollar buying, which will present future opportunities to short the dollar.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23203.html

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GBP Final Forecast Conclusion

The British Pound is in a multi-year bull market against the U.S. Dollar, I expect the current phase of this bull market to see GBP trend higher into mid 2011 targeting a rate of between £/$ 1.80 and £/$1.90 as the below forecast trend graph illustrates (current £/$ 1.58), though I would not be surprised if GBP trades above £/$1.90. I also expect sterling to strengthen against the Euro that targets a trend high E/£ 1.30 (current E/£1.15). However the forex markets will be just as volatile as they have been during the past 2 years as future sovereign debt and banking sector crisis will temporarily result in a surge of safe haven dollar buying, which will present future opportunities to short the dollar.

http://www.marketora...ticle23203.html

Market Oracle on 4th October:

This would assume that the UK will not face any consequences from the Brown decade. We still have £5TR* of debt to deal with and our econonmy still relies on HPI to keep the service sector and Banksteers in a growth trajectory. It also assumes no fallout from the cuts and that the 500,000 jobs being cut will have zdero mpact on overall unemployment.

For now the HPC is not impacting Sterling which used to react negatovely to the prospect of a house market collapse.

Too good to be true IMO. FAR too good to be true.

Bit more reality in the Eurozone:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-30/dollar-falls-to-15-year-low-versus-yen-on-fed-easing-outlook.html

Euro Versus Dollar

The euro fell against the dollar yesterday as European Union discussions on a permanent mechanism to deal with nations facing default sparked concern that the region’s sovereign-debt crisis may intensify again.

__________________________________

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/a-lot-worse-uk-mired-in-5-trillion-of-debt-skynews-962ef3b83ad1.html?x=0

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released a study revealing that the public purse after Labour's disastrous rule will be faced with £4.84 trillion of liabilities compared with the current public sector net debt figure of £903bn.

Edited by Realistbear

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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