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The harder and faster we crash, the sooner we can recover.

Do we really want 30 years of stagnation like Japan? The oldest worker in Japan is 87, who works for McDonalds. Many elderly people still have to work, because a recovery has not happened.

We don't want this in the UK surely?

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Do we really want 30 years of stagnation like Japan? The oldest worker in Japan is 87, who works for McDonalds. Many elderly people still have to work, because a recovery has not happened.

We don't want this in the UK surely?

The crash freaks don't care as long as they buy a house. It is ironically exactly the obsessive behaviour that causes hyperinflation of property in the first place. Quite funny really.

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I'm a long term bear, but I get a standard notification e-mail of new listings fitting my house buying criteria from Primelocation every day.

Three months ago I was getting between 8 and 20 new listings per day. Now I'm getting between 3 and 8.

Don't be surprised if the pattern of dip followed by properties being pulled from the market and supply tightening is repeated, at least until interest rates rise sharply.

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The harder and faster we crash, the sooner we can recover.

Do we really want 30 years of stagnation like Japan? The oldest worker in Japan is 87, who works for McDonalds. Many elderly people still have to work, because a recovery has not happened.

We don't want this in the UK surely?

Does he still jack off in the food?

Edited by dances with sheeple
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Three months ago I was getting between 8 and 20 new listings per day. Now I'm getting between 3 and 8.

Agreed, new listings in my area are very thin on the ground. As mentioned I think there are people who not only don't want to realise a loss but more importantly have a lender who isn't going to be happy to transfer the mortgage to another property. If memory serves HSBC don't let you move without re-evaluating your circumstances.

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The crash freaks don't care as long as they buy a house.  It is ironically exactly the obsessive behaviour that causes hyperinflation of property in the first place.  Quite funny really.

No, lost you completely there. I buy a house after the crash, for cash or a small mortgage, pay it off quickly if the latter, then live rent and mortgage free, only paying to maintain the property. How does that compare to a bunch of brain - dead sheeple taking out Liar loans because a fat bird on the telly told them to?

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Agreed, new listings in my area are very thin on the ground. As mentioned I think there are people who not only don't want to realise a loss but more importantly have a lender who isn't going to be happy to transfer the mortgage to another property. If memory serves HSBC don't let you move without re-evaluating your circumstances.

This is more widespread than HSBC. They will do a credit check, and will refuse you to transfer. This has happened to many people who want to trade up, I have first hand evidence of this from associates.

Edited by Money Spinner
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The crash freaks don't care as long as they buy a house. It is ironically exactly the obsessive behaviour that causes hyperinflation of property in the first place. Quite funny really.

What first brought you to a website called housepricecrash and why did you create a log in ? It's weird.

I despise X Factor and am confident I wouldn't get on with any x factor fans. this alone would be enough to stop me finding an x factor forum, creating an account and winding up the posters there by acting like a bell-end.

I think its you who displays obsessive behaviour, you freak.

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This is more widespread than HSBC. They will do a credit check, and will refuse you to transfer. This has happened to many people who want to trade up, I have first hand evidence of this from associates.

What about trading sideways ?

I wonder how many people, while not in negative equity, still can't move because they no longer meet lending criteria for their existing amount.

That being the case, the only thing feeding the market is deaths/divorces.

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I'm a long term bear, but I get a standard notification e-mail of new listings fitting my house buying criteria from Primelocation every day.

Three months ago I was getting between 8 and 20 new listings per day. Now I'm getting between 3 and 8.

Don't be surprised if the pattern of dip followed by properties being pulled from the market and supply tightening is repeated, at least until interest rates rise sharply.

I see this as well, however even with the tightened supply coming on the market they aren't selling as per 08/09 - back then they were still being snapped up (maybe liar loans/self cert) reducing supply further.

Edited by Daz
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I am hoping for at least a 25% fall in cash terms from where we are now.

To be honest 25% is a joke and represents the reversal of just a couple of boom years out of decades.

A 25% fall imo would barely be the half way mark and I can see no reason why this coming crash should suddenly stop half way can you?

I can understand why you feel 25% would be good from where we are now but it doesn't fit with the current state of the economy or economic history.

The coming UK crash will be no different to that of the Ireland or parts of the US and they haven't finished yet.

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This is all comming together fantastically, ive given myself until next summer/end of.

By then i,ll have 50% deposit 2 yrs mortgage money and money to fully furnish ;)

its looking likea penaly with no keeper GOAL SCORED!!!!!

Sounds like an own goal to me.

This HPC won't be over by the end of next summer or is your plan to lose that 50% deposit.

I know it's hard but wait until 2014 at the earliest.

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QE2,3,4,5,6,7 etc is the only danger.

QE doesn't work - that should be obvious by now.

QE will stop as soon as IR start to rise.

BUT if you really want to see a mega HPC continue with QE.

The real value of property crashes in a hyperinflation if you didn't know this do some research - you will be suprised.

Edited by WiseBear
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I disagree

I think the very low interest rates will stave off repossessions whilst rates remain so low

With low rates I think the market will creep down and this will restrict supply and dampen demand and all the time rates are low then to a certian extent investors will be attracted to buy.

HOWEVER the longer it goes on the more brittle the housing market will become. People will get used to these vey low rates and when rates rise and only a 2-3% rise will be needed then there will be the mother of all crashes.

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To be honest 25% is a joke and represents the reversal of just a couple of boom years out of decades.

A 25% fall imo would barely be the half way mark and I can see no reason why this coming crash should suddenly stop half way can you?

I can understand why you feel 25% would be good from where we are now but it doesn't fit with the current state of the economy or economic history.

The coming UK crash will be no different to that of the Ireland or parts of the US and they haven't finished yet.

I completely agree. If the old bears can contribute anything of value to this site it is their memories of what it is like to live through a hpc at first hand. Owing to the extensive interventions of the last government to delay the inevitable decline things haven't gone the way of the US or Ireland so far, but now we are now seeing a change in sentiment. As the props are taken away the market will crumble. What many don't realise is the frustrations which will confront many bears who will be trying to buy over the next few years in terms of getting loans from banks and overcoming the fear that you might be paying too much and ought to hold off buying a little longer!

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I disagree

I think the very low interest rates will stave off repossessions whilst rates remain so low

With low rates I think the market will creep down and this will restrict supply and dampen demand and all the time rates are low then to a certian extent investors will be attracted to buy.

HOWEVER the longer it goes on the more brittle the housing market will become. People will get used to these vey low rates and when rates rise and only a 2-3% rise will be needed then there will be the mother of all crashes.

So just as we think where coming out of recession and the BOE finally start to raise rates......Bang it all unfolds and back where we started. Great, how much are these fools paid?

Edited by neil324
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I completely agree. If the old bears can contribute anything of value to this site it is their memories of what it is like to live through a hpc at first hand. ...

But there hasn't been one. The fall in the 90s was a fall, not a crash. I bought in '92 as it was cheaper than renting - never had the slightest interest in house prices or property. I had a job in London and needed to live somewhere. The "yuppie boom" of the 80s where you could buy off plan and sell after construction and make a few grand was nauseating for its greed and the repugnant little sh1ts that were doing it but it was not part of mainstream culture. By '95 my flat had gone down in value but in absolute cash terms I didn't care as it was not really very much money (didn't know it had happened TBH). The same flat now sells at around 130 grand. A 10% fall is nigh on a year's after tax income for a single person in a not so good job. The 10% fall I experienced in the same flat was just over a month's gross income.

Imagine this time that flat drops 50%. The "owner" will take a 70 grand kicking. Its not just a few yuppies now its half the country. Everyone and his dog have "made a killing" on their house. A real proper full on crash - like in Spain, Dubai, the US etc will hammer many people for many many years to come. The 90s fall hit some folk hard but relatively few. In the 90s MEW was called taking out a second mortgage and was frowned on. You did it to get money to start a business or something like that. My dad would have kicked me round the garden if I was stupid enough to take out a second mortgage to pay for my holidays.

The knock on effects of the crash will be astronomical. Property is a sideshow.

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But there hasn't been one. The fall in the 90s was a fall, not a crash. I bought in '92 as it was cheaper than renting - never had the slightest interest in house prices or property. I had a job in London and needed to live somewhere. The "yuppie boom" of the 80s where you could buy off plan and sell after construction and make a few grand was nauseating for its greed and the repugnant little sh1ts that were doing it but it was not part of mainstream culture. By '95 my flat had gone down in value but in absolute cash terms I didn't care as it was not really very much money (didn't know it had happened TBH). The same flat now sells at around 130 grand. A 10% fall is nigh on a year's after tax income for a single person in a not so good job. The 10% fall I experienced in the same flat was just over a month's gross income.

Imagine this time that flat drops 50%. The "owner" will take a 70 grand kicking. Its not just a few yuppies now its half the country. Everyone and his dog have "made a killing" on their house. A real proper full on crash - like in Spain, Dubai, the US etc will hammer many people for many many years to come. The 90s fall hit some folk hard but relatively few. In the 90s MEW was called taking out a second mortgage and was frowned on. You did it to get money to start a business or something like that. My dad would have kicked me round the garden if I was stupid enough to take out a second mortgage to pay for my holidays.

The knock on effects of the crash will be astronomical. Property is a sideshow.

i do struggle to understand why this cant be seen by those looking forward to a self contained housing crash, weve already seen what a relatively mild houseprice fall did to the economy in 07, the entire foundation and functioning of the economy has been created and therefore focused around debt expansion and in the last 30 years its gone on a moonshoot and galactic in the last 10, a hpc will wipe out the wider economy that is based on its debgt expansion, an economic reset will likely be the result, not merely a housing reset, and even if somehow it is miraculously put off from now, as it was in the late 70s it has to inevitably come, but houseprices will be the catalyst for the whole economy trashing if they fall, just as they were the catalyst for false economic growth the last decade

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka
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I've said it before, but I think that BOE will QE2 and the govt will legislate to force the state controlled banks to provide mortgages at 90% LTV at very low premiums over base rate (e.g 90% LTV on tracker rate of 1.5%), rather than allow a huge crash. Of course, this will just limit the extent of the fall rather than prevent it, and even then may not work, but does anyone believe they won't try to pump the market up again if it does look like falling massively?!

Falls around here are mainly happening in first time buyer and less desirable areas where buyers don't have a large equity cushion or deposit to put into the deal. Areas where people can get low tracker rates (higher value properties where buyers have big deposits, in good catchment areas), are falling at a slower pace.

I think that the above is why we'll see a maximum 15% off from current prices, nominal, rather than a full on 40-60% collapse. Anyone have an argument why this won't happen or is unlikely to happen?

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To be honest 25% is a joke and represents the reversal of just a couple of boom years out of decades.

A 25% fall imo would barely be the half way mark and I can see no reason why this coming crash should suddenly stop half way can you?

I can understand why you feel 25% would be good from where we are now but it doesn't fit with the current state of the economy or economic history.

The coming UK crash will be no different to that of the Ireland or parts of the US and they haven't finished yet.

I agree, falls have not really even started yet. Fear must exist though for people to start chasing  prices down?

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I've said it before, but I think that BOE will QE2 and the govt will legislate to force the state controlled  banks to provide mortgages at 90% LTV at very low premiums over base rate (e.g 90% LTV on tracker rate of 1.5%), rather than allow a huge crash.  Of course, this will just limit the extent of the fall rather than prevent it, and even then may not work, but does anyone believe they won't try to pump the market up again if it does look like falling massively?!

Falls around here are mainly happening in first time buyer and less desirable areas where buyers don't have a large equity cushion or deposit to put into the deal.  Areas where people can get low tracker rates (higher value properties where buyers have big deposits, in good catchment areas), are falling at a slower pace.

I think that the above is why we'll see a maximum 15% off from current prices, nominal, rather than a full on 40-60% collapse.  Anyone have an argument why this won't happen or is unlikely to happen?

People fearfull of losing jobs don`t take loans, they may even already be defaulting on existing ones making the whole point of lending pointless so to speak?

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OK I'll bite.

At risk of going OT, this "Muppet tennant" is no trouble at all. Pays rent regularly in advance, doesn't smoke, have pets, or hold wild parties, and can even tolerate magnolia walls.

In return muppet amateur landlord ignores and reasonable request for minor repairs or maintenance.

So you are right to get out of being a BTL landlord, a totally discredited profession attracting the worst "get rich quick" merchants!

Mods feel free to move this to troll sub forum.

To be fair, you are right. I have another who is a great tennant. But smaller places with younger people can be a nightmare. But some complete muppets did live in the one i sold . If potential landlords knew the type of people that want to rent their houses, then none would bother. Let the councils house them and then the taxpayer has the agro.

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  • 433 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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