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The Masked Tulip

House Price Crash Imminent

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http://www.mortgagerates.org.uk/news/house-price-cras/

Howard Archer, the chief economist at IHS Global Insight was quoted in saying: “Latest housing market data and surveys have been consistently weak, and the housing market really does not seem to have got much going for it at the moment. Critical to the development of house prices over the coming months will be the amount of houses coming on to the market, mortgage availability and how well the economy and jobs hold up as the fiscal squeeze increasingly kicks in.”

Market insiders are no longer asking themselves whether there will be a house price crash but instead how deep the crash will be. September alone slashed house prices down £6,000.

Ed Stansfield, chief property economist at Capital Economics, said: “The fact that house prices now appear to be on their way back down after the past year’s rather unexpected surge should not be a surprise. Not only is the market overvalued on most measures, but house price falls are entirely consistent with the drop in buyer inquires and mortgage approvals that we have seen in recent months. They also square with reports that lenders have begun to tighten credit standards again.”

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Could this finally be it? 3 or 4 years of waiting, everything is in line, and no political will to prop up the giant turd that is our housing market.

God knows to be honest.

Given the insanity that is the uk property market we'll probably be up 20% this time next year.

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The only way prices will rise anytime soon is if banks agree to let you pay them with air! If you have no job and cant get help to pay what else are you ment to use? Id say any price rise will be regional and there will be big falls in other areas.

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Prices coming down, no crash yet though. More unemployment and repossessions required for a proper crash. Interesting place to post such an article; on a mortgage rates website.

Bound to encourage people to borrow huge sums against crashing prices. They can enjoy negative equity in double quick time.

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Edwin Stargazer, chief property economist at Crapital Economics, said: “I've been predicting a property crash now for 7 years or more. Still, as everyone knows, a stopped clock is right twice a day and, sooner or later, by the law of averages, I will be right. Meanwhile, I'll stick my economist's hat on and interpret the figures for lesser mortals. Mortgage approvals are down, housing market transactions are down, house prices have fallen a bit .... I PREDICT they'll fall some more. That's why I'm an economist."

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this is the best month for a long time,

just lets hope it carries on like this,

Dead right. I just got out of a btl i bought . Made a profit too. Best bit though is that i wont have to deal with anymore muppet tennants. Total waste of space they are. LOL

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Dead right. I just got out of a btl i bought . Made a profit too. Best bit though is that i wont have to deal with anymore muppet tennants. Total waste of space they are. LOL

OK I'll bite.

At risk of going OT, this "Muppet tennant" is no trouble at all. Pays rent regularly in advance, doesn't smoke, have pets, or hold wild parties, and can even tolerate magnolia walls.

In return muppet amateur landlord ignores and reasonable request for minor repairs or maintenance.

So you are right to get out of being a BTL landlord, a totally discredited profession attracting the worst "get rich quick" merchants!

Mods feel free to move this to troll sub forum.

Edited by Sir John Steed

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It should be fairly obvious to most by now that the national indices are being held up by higher-end property flooding onto the market.

What was an "average" 160K property round my way is on for between 135,950 (lowest) and 149K (highest). And yet the indices haven't hardly budged. Reading some of the local EA comments on the regional RICS reports, the rule is 10K off if they haven't sold in a few months - then follow with another 10K off.

My own guess is that by late next year, we'll be within 10% of any measurable bottom, not withstanding the odd "up" month in Q1 2011. By 10% of the bottom I mean that the price of the house you want to buy will only fall another 10% in nominal cash terms in 2012 and 2013, no matter how long you wait or how hard you bargain.

If you've a sum large enough to buy the whole property, make sure you earn as much interest on it as possible in 2011, 2012 and 2013 if you want to maximise your purchasing power.

For everyone with a deposit that's some percentage of the house you're aiming for, I'd say you should start to consider putting in aggresive, low offers around this time next year. If it's a no-go, you may have to suffer a mini-bounce in 2012 before the remaining 10% comes off.

I'd say you'll never know just what you can get your house for unless you go out there and make an offer. Remember that the land registry prices are published with at least a 6 month delay, so waiting for those to bottom will mean you miss the best opportunities. I'd aim for at least 40K off an average priced house by late 2011.

A plan?

Edited by AvidFan

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I am hoping for at least a 25% fall in cash terms from where we are now.

so a year or 18 months should do it nicely. Enough time to add to the pile of deposit money!

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I'm a long term bear, but I get a standard notification e-mail of new listings fitting my house buying criteria from Primelocation every day.

Three months ago I was getting between 8 and 20 new listings per day. Now I'm getting between 3 and 8.

Don't be surprised if the pattern of dip followed by properties being pulled from the market and supply tightening is repeated, at least until interest rates rise sharply.

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This is all comming together fantastically, ive given myself until next summer/end of.

By then i,ll have 50% deposit 2 yrs mortgage money and money to fully furnish ;)

its looking likea penaly with no keeper GOAL SCORED!!!!!

Edited by sponge

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OK I'll bite.

At risk of going OT, this "Muppet tennant" is no trouble at all. Pays rent regularly in advance, doesn't smoke, have pets, or hold wild parties, and can even tolerate magnolia walls.

In return muppet amateur landlord ignores and reasonable request for minor repairs or maintenance.

Same here, I couldn't even get him to replace the washing machine when it blew up, I ended up having to buy one myself and deducting it from the next month's rent.

If I was a BTL landlord I would nurture a tenant like me but he knows I am a STR and I think it pees him off a bit, especially as the flat has fallen in value by twice as much as the rent I have paid over the last three years.

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I'm a long term bear, but I get a standard notification e-mail of new listings fitting my house buying criteria from Primelocation every day.

Three months ago I was getting between 8 and 20 new listings per day. Now I'm getting between 3 and 8.

Don't be surprised if the pattern of dip followed by properties being pulled from the market and supply tightening is repeated, at least until interest rates rise sharply.

Could it be the houses you want are now below your registed price so they're no longer sent to tou?

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This is all comming together fantastically, ive given myself until next summer/end of.

By then i,ll have 50% deposit 2 yrs mortgage money and money to fully furnish ;)

its looking likea penaly with no keeper GOAL SCORED!!!!!

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Hehe.

Rubs hands, Luvly jubbly.

Crash is on.

Unemployment , houses repo'ed , people made homeless , suffering ...why is this good ?

what's the matter with you ?

daily hate seems to agree

Mortgage lending drops by 90% in ONE month: Level falls from £1.62bn in August to just £112m in September

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1324827/Mortgage-lending-drops-90-cent-ONE-MONTH.html#ixzz13mBvrzEG

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Unemployment , houses repo'ed , people made homeless , suffering ...why is this good ?

what's the matter with you ?

I'm unemployed, but you will never read a post from me asking you to feel sorry for me.

And if somebody buys a house they can't afford to buy, borrowing more money than they could afford to pay back then I would have no more sympathy for them than for someone who had their Rolls-Royce repossessed for the same reason.

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Could this finally be it? 3 or 4 years of waiting, everything is in line, and no political will to prop up the giant turd that is our housing market.

QE2,3,4,5,6,7 etc is the only danger.

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I'm unemployed, but you will never read a post from me asking you to feel sorry for me.

And if somebody buys a house they can't afford to buy, borrowing more money than they could afford to pay back then I would have no more sympathy for them than for someone who had their Rolls-Royce repossessed for the same reason.

+1

You pays your money you takes your chance.

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Markets go up, markets go down.

Money is made, money is lost, life goes on. This is how the financial centres of the world work, right now. It's cut throat- they don't care you've got kids to feed and a £200K mortgage, and you've had to take a 20% pay cut. They'll take all you've got and some more.

---

Its time to sharpen ones self and obtain an edge.

Have YOU prepared yourself?

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The coalition's aims are evident from the CSR. No overall cuts but a shift of spending from those of working age on benefits to those who are retired and a bit more for the kids. Increases in social care and NHS spending and education and cutbacks for those who currently make up the housing market.

Sounds like a sound plan politically keeping the elderly on board and should have house prices on a downward trajectory in time to help the generation that is emerging.

Those of younger working age are the sacrificial lambs I'm afraid.

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Tankus

Why is this good?

While I have no wish to see anybody suffer I (and many others) have had to endure years of injustice. While we have been sensible and played by the rules our dreams of home ownership have been destroyed by interest only mortgages, liar loans, reckless banks, scumlord BTL, amoral estate agents and various other vested interests.

Furthermore we have had to endure smug homeowners lording it over us in their over inflated hovels and enjoying wealth and a lifestyle they often do not deserve and have not earned.

Now it is turning in our favour,it's a buyers market and we should milk it. Ruthlessly low offers, gazundering or simply sitting back and watching the whole house of cards collapse.

Bring on the crash! I've been waiting a decade for this!

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  • 140 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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