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Mortgages And Lending

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Mortgages: 47K up from 44K, 46K expected

Lending: 0.4bn, down from 1.6bn, 0.9bn expected

http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php?c=2&week=1287878400&do=displayweek&month=10&year=2010

I wouldn't use ForexFactory for your data. Always go to the source.

Mortgage approvals were roughly unchanged: 47,474 in Sept vs 47,498 in Aug.

Sept 2009 was 55,761.

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Running across the screen on BBC news 24 says "mortgage lending fell to £122m - less than a tenth of August figure"

first it said dived, now it says fell :lol: someone keeping the minions on song

If it rises say it "jumped" or "shot up", if it falls say it "dipped" :rolleyes:

Edited by athom

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Forex factorys previous for this is the BOE trends in lending from earlier this month. Which is the figure for the biggest 5 mortgage lenders. Today's figure is lending to individuals which is all mortgage lending. The two are not comparable with each other.

The actual previous was 47k

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Lending for house purchase fell slightly in September: £6.6bn vs £6.7bn in August.

The average approval value fell from 141.7K to 139K, but that figure is still relatively high and is up from a year ago (136K).

Updated chart:

avapprovalval0910.gif

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Lending for house purchase fell slightly in September: £6.6bn vs £6.7bn in August.

The average approval value fell from 141.7K to 139K, but that figure is still relatively high and is up from a year ago (136K).

Updated chart:

avapprovalval0910.gif

I would still love to know why the average amount lent doubled overnight in 2001.

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In the grand scheme of things £400m is a tiny amount. Crazy low lending figure.

+1

That's the kind of money a multinational or large Europen Insurer has on deposit.

Microscopic relative to the value of the national housing stock.

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I would still love to know why the average amount lent doubled overnight in 2001.

The dot com + telecoms bubbles bursting causes a recession in the US and IRs dropped everywhere (BoE dropped 6% to 4%). The banks were probably cautious on lending until it was obvious that the UK had escaped and the taps were opened up again and lending resumed on the 98-00 upward trend (or '98 to '07 trend).

2001 was also the point at which the UK mortgage lending was no longer net funded by UK funds and foreign money (along with securitisation) began to rush in and help maintain the upward trend '98-'07 helped by the UK having higher IRs than US or Eurozone

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The dot com + telecoms bubbles bursting causes a recession in the US and IRs dropped everywhere (BoE dropped 6% to 4%). The banks were probably cautious on lending until it was obvious that the UK had escaped and the taps were opened up again and lending resumed on the 98-00 upward trend (or '98 to '07 trend).

2001 was also the point at which the UK mortgage lending was no longer net funded by UK funds and foreign money (along with securitisation) began to rush in and help maintain the upward trend '98-'07 helped by the UK having higher IRs than US or Eurozone

and don't forget - international mortgage-bond purchases will have to compete with increasing pan-developed-world government debts as they fund baby boomer retirement-welfare state - this will push up the cost of borrowing in real terms, over the long term, a baked in secular trend methinks

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The dot com + telecoms bubbles bursting causes a recession in the US and IRs dropped everywhere (BoE dropped 6% to 4%). The banks were probably cautious on lending until it was obvious that the UK had escaped and the taps were opened up again and lending resumed on the 98-00 upward trend (or '98 to '07 trend).

2001 was also the point at which the UK mortgage lending was no longer net funded by UK funds and foreign money (along with securitisation) began to rush in and help maintain the upward trend '98-'07 helped by the UK having higher IRs than US or Eurozone

Exactly right.

Plus the US printing money after the attempt to bring down their economy in Sept '01.

But fundamentally the start of the rapid increase in their trade deficits with China generating the ongoing increased demand for US govt. debt and securitised debt.

The hollowing out of the Western economies by China and the globo corps leading to where we are now. Huge deflationary pressures, negative rates, massive unemployment, liquidity traps and still no resolution to China's manipulation of the US trade deficit.

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Updated chart:

boeapprovals0910.gif

Interesting. I wonder how much that stamp duty holiday brought forward what little demand there was?

It's nearly 2011 and we're still way off on the approval volumes. There's a lot bearing down on volumes in the longer term (future price increases above wage inflation, increased pension contributions, student debt, etc). That's in addition to the short term pressures.

This looks like the end on the demand intervention side.

edit: the system has reset to a new level

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-29/u-k-lenders-approved-more-mortgages-in-september-than-economists-forecast.html

Approvals “are still low,” Hetal Mehta, a U.K. economist at Daiwa Capital Markets Europe Ltd. in London, said in a telephone interview. “The fact they didn’t fall further isn’t particularly comforting. It’s not going to change the fact we are going to have a double dip in the housing market.”

“Mortgage approvals won’t fall significantly further from here, but it will be very difficult to see us returning to pre- crisis levels over the next decade,” said Azad Zangana, chief European economist at Schroder Investment Management Ltd. in London. “We’ll find a new normal at some stage and that will be above the levels we’re seeing today. But we need to see more traction in the recovery.”

Edited by Ash4781

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
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