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Welcome To The Capitulation Stage?


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So we agree volumes have collapsed big style? The second part of your argument only helps most sellers when most people have loads of money and want houses, there is no money, and I think the "want" part will soon start to wane? One person who is stupid/a money launderer/or just can buy whatever they want buying overpriced property doesn`t help the other wanna - be sellers?

You're right, it doesn't affect most sellers. Yes volumes have collapsed - not quite as much as people think, but a lot. But you need to get your head around how the housing market actually functions. Nice properties in nice areas will be sold to those earning the most money - this sets prices - and the rest of the market prices accordingly.

And, bloody 'investors' are still buying up anything a bit scruffy, tarting it up and renting it out at high rents. Just a few days ago on Homes Under the Hammer two young lads (both less than 30 - NOT baby boomers) bought a non standard construction 3 bed semi somewhere in the North for 36k at auction. They spent 2 grand on it (where do they get their kitchens and bathrooms from?) and the agents valued it at 50k to 60k (it is not mortgageable) and said they'd get £550 to £575 a month in rent.

Camera back to two young lads 'yes that's about right because we've got a tenant already and they are paying £575 a month!'

Yesterday (I think) house split into two poxy flats - basement flat and upstairs flat - £1000 to £1200 a month in rent each!

When rents come down, prices will come down.

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people in their late 40s and 50s are boomers

but you are too stupid to understand the simple definition of people born between 1946 and up to about 1970, which makes people in their 40s boomers b y the UK definition

like I say the thing which annoys me more than anything else is how wilfully stupid you are

The last resort of anyone who can't make an argument is to call the other person stupid. Personally, I think you are wrong but I wouldn't be rude enough to call you stupid because I think you have failed to interpret the world around you correctly. As I say, I think you're wrong, but it doesn't annoy me.

You were trying to stereotype BTL landords as boomers. I was merely pointing out that most of them are not. Definitions of baby boomer vary - my interpretation of it is the babies born in the post war baby boom. This didn't extend to 1970. Many baby boomers were in their 20s by then.

You may well be able to dig up some sort of definition but, as far as I know, there is no law on the matter. I think most of us that are baby boomers would regard the limits as 1945 to 1960. I don't see many people in their 50s on the property porn shows building portfolios.

Woman I had a meeting with in a bank recently told me she had 6 BTL properties - I'd guess she was in her mid 40s. Not my idea of a boomer. Almost too young to have been a property owner in the last crash. Maybe that's the dividing line. Anyone who was old enough to own property in the last crash may be a lot more careful about regarding property as an investment that people who have bought in for the first time since.

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That program is made up.

If you are taking your property market steer from Homes under the ******ing Hammer, then I don't think there's any hope for you.

Really? They're mock auctions are they? And actors playing the part of the people who buy!

The level of denial here gets better and better. :rolleyes:

If you take your property market steer from some of the stuff you read here ....

I am not an estate agent, I don't spend my life going in and out of estate agents taking the pulse of the market, interwiewing buyers, sellers, lenders etc.

Nor, I bet, do you. You form your opinions from the information available to you. And a reality TV show is part of that information.

Edited by Let's get it right
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The last resort of anyone who can't make an argument is to call the other person stupid.

I am not making an argument I am making an observation

Personally, I think you are wrong but I wouldn't be rude enough to call you stupid because I think you have failed to interpret the world around you correctly. As I say, I think you're wrong, but it doesn't annoy me.

You were trying to stereotype BTL landords as boomers. I was merely pointing out that most of them are not. Definitions of baby boomer vary - my interpretation of it is the babies born in the post war baby boom. This didn't extend to 1970. Many baby boomers were in their 20s by then.

You may well be able to dig up some sort of definition but, as far as I know, there is no law on the matter. I think most of us that are baby boomers would regard the limits as 1945 to 1960. I don't see many people in their 50s on the property porn shows building portfolios.

it is a quesiton of demographics

you are wilfully stupid

utterly

Edited by Si1
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that's b0llocks, people in the regions were still paying high prices in 1991 before being burned in the lag

No, it's not b0ll0cks. Take it from someone who was there. I put a property on the market at exactly the same time that the joint mortgage tax relief was removed in 1988. Two years later we sold for 30% below the first (aspirational) price. We bought back in in 1991 and the property I bought then for 100k had previously sold in 1987 for £154k.

The crash was over by 1991 and, last time, the boom and crash was very much a feature of London and the Home Counties. The explosion in prices in Wales and the Midlands and North didn't happen because BTL was not around to any great degree then.

You, mate, believe what you want to believe. Which is why you are wrong.

Edited by Let's get it right
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No, it's not b0ll0cks. Take it from someone who was there. I put a property on the market at exactly the same time that the joint mortgage tax relief was removed in 1988. Two years later we sold for 30% below the first (aspirational) price. We bought back in in 1991 and the property I bought then for 100k had previously sold in 1987 for £154k.

The crash was over by 1991 and, last time, the boom and crash was very much a feature of London and the Home Counties. The explosion in prices in Wales and the Midlands and North didn't happen because BTL was not around to any great degree then.

You, mate, believe what you want to believe. Which is why you are wrong.

I am older than you think, I was young at the time nevertheless. Most parts of the north seemed untouched, true. I phrased that badly.

Manchester and Birmigham were among the places that saw sharp rises in the late 80s and early 90s

people who bought apartments in manchester in 1991 saw negative equity

following the crash you could buy houses in places like salford for £s

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you are a wilfully stupid person, the trough before the current boom was not 1991

No way did Manchester and Birmingham see rises in the early 90s. It was done and dusted by then.

How can someone be wilfully stupid? It is a very ignorant thing to do to call someone stupid - and shows how bereft of merit your argument is.

Are you being wilfully clever? Are you?

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To compare the US with 300 million people in a country that is 40 times the size of the UK with 60 million people and draconian planning laws - is to compare chalk and cheese.

And, as we have seen, printing money seems to have no negative consequences.

Im talking mortgages here.

mortgage in the boom were manufactured, sold and resold as securities which, it appears, may have little or no value, as the underlying security, the US home, has no value to the MBS holder for recourse.

UK securitization, as you say was tiny compared to the US stock...but its the US stuff that our banks use as capital...and if their capital is gone, so is their lending ability.

Incidently, so is your pension.

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I've never seen the property market go into freefall like that chart indicates. Other markets - stock markets, gold, wheat, coffee - yes, but not the property market. It is too illiquid and, without forced sellers, prices never go into that sort of decline.

That's just wishful thinking on your part. Markets don't have to be liquid in order to fall. House prices are set at the margins. There are, and will be a lot more, forced sellers. The Sibley's of this world will just remain in denial, "I'm not selling it for less than it's worth!" :lol:

I agree that the graph will not look as dramatic as the picture (actually it might in a lot of poorer areas), but it's still going down and you'd better get used to it.

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That's just wishful thinking on your part. No it's not, it's a simple fact. Markets don't have to be liquid in order to fall. Yes they do. Name one market where it takes an average of 12 weeks for a transaction to take place where the prices go and down like a yo-yo. The best example of this is what happened in 1988 when the flagged joint mortgage tax relief was removed. The housing market simple stopped. Just ground to a halt for months. Prices crept down gradually over 18 months to 2 years.. House prices are set at the margins. Absolutely and the only people buying can afford current prices - setting the price, as you say, at the margins. There are, and will be a lot more, forced sellers. Not much sign at the moment of forced sellers. The Sibley's of this world will just remain in denial, "I'm not selling it for less than it's worth!" :lol:Yes, ha ha. Many people take that view and don't have to sell - again helping to price the market. They might not sell, but if 10 similar detached houses are all on the market for 400k, you can bet the one that sells in a falling market will only go for a little below the 'general' asking price.

I agree that the graph will not look as dramatic as the picture (actually it might in a lot of poorer areas), but it's still going down and you'd better get used to it. I want prices to go down. I've wanted prices to go down for 7 years. It's just that I am now facing the inevitable and realising they won't go down much.

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Let's get it right,

Yeah let's. Of course house prices don't yo-yo in a short time scale when it takes 3 months to complete a transaction. The timescales are relative. I said that markets don't have to be liquid to fall and that is true. In your street of 10 similar detached houses "worth" 400k it only takes one to sell for 320k and they are all "worth" 20% less, whether they like it or not.

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No way did Manchester and Birmingham see rises in the early 90s. It was done and dusted by then.

How can someone be wilfully stupid? It is a very ignorant thing to do to call someone stupid - and shows how bereft of merit your argument is.

Are you being wilfully clever? Are you?

...very entertaining thread. Whilst I want property prices to come down and gather knowledge on the market from visiting this forum to read debates and differences etc...

..I am often bemused at the hostility shown by some posters when peeps (so called bulls / neithers) have a different opinion to theirs.. they are very quick to hurl abusive or derogatory comments on those who don't follow their line of thought rather than debate the issue like adults and accept that in some cases one must simply agree to disagree

This exchange between you and the one who calls you stupid in this particular thread is a classic example.. you debated the issue without hurling abuse (at least on this particular thread) the "other" continues to be agressive and increasingly abusive displaying traits of all the characteristics I have mentioned above.. hmmm..... continue your post... I like to hear all sides.. and whatever happens.......

don't stoop so low as to hurl abuses back on the "one" who calls you stupid.. just don't stoop down to that level rise above it...

On an aside note... it has taken a while but I hoped 4th qrt 2010 would bring some momentum to falls in hp. whilst the falls are not yet pronounced, one cannot deny that over the last forthnight it appears not a day or two has gone by without some news on property prices which has not been bearish particularly every single MSM has reported on this with slightly different formats but the overwhelming message has been unanimous... expect falls/property is overpriced/mortgage rationing etc etc..

Something may just be about to happen price wise.. whether it's rapid or drawn out is the question that needs answering (particularly as this is occuring in the traditional slow period of the year for house purchases).. nevertheless I think this is a very important phase (begining) of this so called house price correction or NOT.

I am certainly watching this space...closely

Edited by magneticworld
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I've never seen the property market go into freefall like that chart indicates. Other markets - stock markets, gold, wheat, coffee - yes, but not the property market. It is too illiquid and, without forced sellers, prices never go into that sort of decline.

I agree with you, freefall never happens in the porperty market, you would have to go back into the history files to find any evidence...

housepriceindex.jpg

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...very entertaining thread.  Whilst I want property prices to come down and gather knowledge on the market from visiting this forum to read debates and differences etc...

..I am often bemused at the hostility shown by some posters when peeps (so called bulls / neithers) have a different opinion to theirs.. they are very quick to hurl abusive or derogatory comments on those who don't follow their line of thought rather than debate the issue like adults and accept that in some cases one must simply agree to disagree

This exchange between you and the one who calls you stupid in this particular thread is a classic example.. you debated the issue without hurling abuse (at least on this particular thread) the "other" continues to be agressive and increasingly abusive displaying traits of all the characteristics I have mentioned above.. hmmm..... continue your post... I like to hear all sides.. and whatever happens.......

don't stoop so low as to hurl abuses back on the "one" who calls you stupid.. just don't stoop down to that level rise above it...

On an aside note... it has taken a while but I hoped 4th qrt 2010 would bring some momentum to falls in hp. whilst the falls are not yet pronounced, one cannot deny that over the last forthnight it appears not a day or two has gone by without some news on property prices which has not been bearish particularly every single MSM has reported on this with slightly different formats but the overwhelming message has been unanimous... expect falls/property is overpriced/mortgage rationing etc etc..

Something may just be about to happen price wise.. whether it's rapid or drawn out is the question that needs answering (particularly as this is occuring in the traditional slow period of the year for house purchases).. nevertheless I think this is a very important phase (begining) of this so called house price correction or NOT.  

I am certainly watching this space...closely

what is there to debate? Stop talking pish.

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The housing market last time was as low as it was going to go by about 1991 - it bumped along the bottom then for 5 or 6 years.

I didn't say house prices were rising. I acknowledge they are falling - a little. My point is that they won't fall much further because they are sustained by high rents and people continuing to grow property portfolios.

There is a graph of the last house price crash on the graphs tab on the homepage.

It would appear to show that prices fell significantly further post 1991. The bottom would appear to have been late 1992, this tallies with my own recollection. I bought in mid 1991 and saw the value of my flat drop a further 10%.

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  • 429 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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