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All this talk of an 'exodus' of HB claimants due to the newly announced cuts is pure ******.

I'll tell you what WILL happen....Rents will have to come down to match the new level of HB

Simple as

Why won't anyone dare say it on TV or in the papers ?

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All this talk of an 'exodus' of HB claimants due to the newly announced cuts is pure ******.

I'll tell you what WILL happen....Rents will have to come down to match the new level of HB

Simple as

Why won't anyone dare say it on TV or in the papers ?

because house price only ever go up, and renting is always a losing gambit

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All this talk of an 'exodus' of HB claimants due to the newly announced cuts is pure ******.

I'll tell you what WILL happen....Rents will have to come down to match the new level of HB

Simple as

Why won't anyone dare say it on TV or in the papers ?

here here!

How long before we hear HB claimants grouping together to say "we're not going to move, and we're not going to pay"... where's that going to leave the landlords?

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All this talk of an 'exodus' of HB claimants due to the newly announced cuts is pure ******.

I'll tell you what WILL happen....Rents will have to come down to match the new level of HB

Simple as

Why won't anyone dare say it on TV or in the papers ?

I do wonder where the 200,000 or so private renters needed to occupy the newly vacated properties on the North Peckham estate and other such salubrious localities are going to come from.

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I do wonder where the 200,000 or so private renters needed to occupy the newly vacated properties on the North Peckham estate and other such salubrious localities are going to come from.

Another point, picked up from a blog on the grauniad - is that this is going to hit the working poor much harder than the HB claimants. HB payments will go up - to the 30th percentile of local rates - and cover the increase in council house rents. The working poor, who are actually *paying* the reduced rent now, will see their rent double. So they're either going to have to lump it, leave or re assess their position and sign on. Its going to be interesting to watch how this unfolds because I think there are going to be a multitude of unintended and/or unanticipated consequences.

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How long before we hear HB claimants grouping together to say "we're not going to move, and we're not going to pay"... where's that going to leave the landlords?

HB claimants the footsoldiers of the HPC? :D

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I do wonder where the 200,000 or so private renters needed to occupy the newly vacated properties on the North Peckham estate and other such salubrious localities are going to come from.

I am starting to wonder just how many of those 200,000 flats are owned by Boris the albino

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Another point, picked up from a blog on the grauniad - is that this is going to hit the working poor much harder than the HB claimants. HB payments will go up - to the 30th percentile of local rates - and cover the increase in council house rents. The working poor, who are actually *paying* the reduced rent now, will see their rent double. So they're either going to have to lump it, leave or re assess their position and sign on. Its going to be interesting to watch how this unfolds because I think there are going to be a multitude of unintended and/or unanticipated consequences.

eh?

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eh?

this is my understanding: social housing, ie council flats, are let currently at something like 40%(?) of 'market' rents. This is what you pay - whether you earn the money or HB pays it. Under the new rules, this rent goes up to 80% of local market rates. This figure will almost certainly still be within the 30th percentile of local market rents, and thus HB will still pay it. So for the HB claimant, no change, but the HB bill just doubled. For the social tenant that earns money and pays the rent out of their own pocket, the rent just doubled. They may now have to leave, or it may be better for them to 'lose' their job, and start claiming HB.

Or have I totally misunderstood things?

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All this talk of an 'exodus' of HB claimants due to the newly announced cuts is pure ******.

I'll tell you what WILL happen....Rents will have to come down to match the new level of HB

Simple as

Why won't anyone dare say it on TV or in the papers ?

Housing benefit is only one of the variables and is least important from the perspective of BTLers. What is needed before they capitulate is for interest rates to rise, the availabulity of credit to dry up and unemployment to rise significantly.

Credit has indeed dried up, high unemployment is coming, but interest rates are still too low. Until the price of houses comes crashing down, rents will not be dropped by the landlords. Even then, they won't be dropped by those current andlords. What will happen is that eventually they will be pushed out of business and the properties sold on for lower prices to people who will no longer have to services high mortages. But, that's along way down the road.

All we will get by having HB cuts right now, in the absence of the other variables, is overcrowded, disease-ridden slums reminiscient of a previous era. This is fine for you, I guess, if you think you are not going to be poor enough to have to live in one. However, the point a lot of you folks salivating at the prospect of a reduction in HB seem to have significantly missed is that the majority of you are going to get a lot poorer..... :lol:

So if rents drop, this will only because the economy has so royally f*cked up that folks won't be able to pay the rent at any price. It's what's needed, of course, for a complete economic reset to take place. And God, do we need that. What tickles me, though, is the fact that you sorry little b*ggers don't realize that the majority of you aren't going to benefit.

The poor will get poorer and the rich will get richer. Forget about "prices". It's all about the ratio between the one and the other. That ratio is going to get wider no matter what happens to the actual price.

Edited by tallguy

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All this talk of an 'exodus' of HB claimants due to the newly announced cuts is pure ******.

I'll tell you what WILL happen....Rents will have to come down to match the new level of HB

Simple as

Why won't anyone dare say it on TV or in the papers ?

No they dont, because others will fill the void in, dont expect rents to drop, asmuch as you think, the only way to drop rents would be to supply more social homes and reduce demand in the private sector,this have an added benefit that it'll lower house prices.

Edited by crash2006

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here here!

How long before we hear HB claimants grouping together to say "we're not going to move, and we're not going to pay"... where's that going to leave the landlords?

Hopefully with an act of Parliament stating benefit claimants can be shot on sight.

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this is my understanding: social housing, ie council flats, are let currently at something like 40%(?) of 'market' rents. This is what you pay - whether you earn the money or HB pays it. Under the new rules, this rent goes up to 80% of local market rates. This figure will almost certainly still be within the 30th percentile of local market rents, and thus HB will still pay it. So for the HB claimant, no change, but the HB bill just doubled. For the social tenant that earns money and pays the rent out of their own pocket, the rent just doubled. They may now have to leave, or it may be better for them to 'lose' their job, and start claiming HB.

Or have I totally misunderstood things?

You have totally misunderstood things :)

They are not raising rents, they are reducing how much rent they will pay.

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Its a game of poker, Cameron is calling the Landlords Bluff.

Either there's going to be 82K empty rental properties with unaffordable rents.

OR 82K families stay put, and the landlords take the hit with lowering rents.

---

One to ponder.

So who's the patsy on the table and who has the winning hand?

Landlord

Tenant

Cameron

If you don't know who the patsy is, you can assume it's you.

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You have totally misunderstood things :)

They are not raising rents, they are reducing how much rent they will pay.

there's a few changes, right? They are increasing council house rent from 40% of local rents to 80%, and capping HB at the 30th percentile of local rents. Two different things. I admit I am in Australia (thankfully) and might not have grasped this correctly, that's why I am seeking clarity.

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Housing benefit is only one of the variables and is least important from the perspective of BTLers. What is needed before they capitulate is for interest rates to rise, the availabulity of credit to dry up and unemployment to rise significantly.

Credit has indeed dried up, high unemployment is coming, but interest rates are still too low. Until the price of houses comes crashing down, rents will not be dropped by the landlords. Even then, they won't be dropped by those current andlords. What will happen is that eventually they will be pushed out of business and the properties sold on for lower prices to people who will no longer have to services high mortages. But, that's along way down the road.

All we will get by having HB cuts right now, in the absence of the other variables, is overcrowded, disease-ridden slums reminiscient of a previous era. This is fine for you, I guess, if you think you are not going to be poor enough to have to live in one. However, the point a lot of you folks salivating at the prospect of a reduction in HB seem to have significantly missed is that the majority of you are going to get a lot poorer..... :lol:

So if rents drop, this will only because the economy has so royally f*cked up that folks won't be able to pay the rent at any price. It's what's needed, of course, for a complete economic reset to take place. And God, do we need that. What tickles me, though, is the fact that you sorry little b*ggers don't realize that the majority of you aren't going to benefit.

The poor will get poorer and the rich will get richer. Forget about "prices". It's all about the ratio between the one and the other. That ratio is going to get wider no matter what happens to the actual price.

In other words, no BTL sell off = No HPC!

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You have totally misunderstood things :)

They are not raising rents, they are reducing how much rent they will pay.

I'm afraid you are totally wrong rents for new social housing tenants are being raised from about 50% of market rents to 80% of market rents which will result in people on low incomes having to rely on benefit

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here here!

How long before we hear HB claimants grouping together to say "we're not going to move, and we're not going to pay"... where's that going to leave the landlords?

Umm, HB claimants dont pay. Taxpayers do.

From Wall Street 2. "Moral Hazard is where you get to spend someone else's money and you are not responsible for it".

That is what housing benefit is. Why should HB claimants care about how they spend someone else's money?

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Housing benefit is only one of the variables and is least important from the perspective of BTLers. What is needed before they capitulate is for interest rates to rise, the availabulity of credit to dry up and unemployment to rise significantly.

I can assure you that Housing Benefit is crucial for the BTL market. It puts a nice floor under the market, allowing BTL'ers to overpay for houses knowing that the floor on prices will move up and save them. All set their rents according to what the local authority says should be paid.

The other stuff, particularly interest rates, has an impact. But all that is fluff compared to the taxpayer guaranteed money flowing into their pockets. Take it away, and the pigs will squeal.

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I can assure you that Housing Benefit is crucial for the BTL market. It puts a nice floor under the market, allowing BTL'ers to overpay for houses knowing that the floor on prices will move up and save them. All set their rents according to what the local authority says should be paid.

The other stuff, particularly interest rates, has an impact. But all that is fluff compared to the taxpayer guaranteed money flowing into their pockets. Take it away, and the pigs will squeal.

I genuinely hope you are right. I simply observe the fact that in areas where housing benefit already does not meet market demand (and this is a significant number of areas) landlords simply demand that claimants make up the difference out of their living benefits. I see no reason why they will not continue to do this. Or, as an alternative, shoe horn two or three families into the same house in order to get it.

As I said, the housing benefit bill is indeed unsustainable and has to be reduced one way or another. My own view, though, is that if we get raised interest rates plus rising unemployment plus difficulty in obtaining credit, houseprices will collapse plus Landlords will go bust plus houses will be sold back onto the market at cheaper rates plus new landlords will be able to afford to rent at lower rates. Consequently, the housing benefit bill will follow the market back down in the same way as it followed it up previously

This current measure is tackling symptoms and not causes.

Edited by tallguy

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there's a few changes, right? They are increasing council house rent from 40% of local rents to 80%, and capping HB at the 30th percentile of local rents. Two different things. I admit I am in Australia (thankfully) and might not have grasped this correctly, that's why I am seeking clarity.

Ah yes, this is it. 2 seperate propoals, the council housing rents not set in stone at this stage.

Interestingly, they'll be claiming housing benefits to pay for it!

The group said the average rent for a three-bedroom social home is £85 a week, but under today's plans that could triple to £250 a week.

It warned that as a result many new tenants were likely to be heavily dependent on housing benefit to cover the extra costs, which was likely to act as a "powerful disincentive" for people who were unemployed to get a job.

Crazy world.

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I am amazed at the unfairness of a system that allows people to claim uncapped amount on HB. Even £400 per week is far higher than I would like to see. I would like to see it limited to £300 per week, max. For that you can rent a 4 bedroom house BUT NOT IN THE MIDDLE OFLONDON. Private renters have to cut their cloth according to their income and this restricts were they can live. I can't afford to rent in Mayfair because I don't fcking earn enough, so I don't see why benefits careerists should be able to choose to live were I and other like me cannot.

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Umm, HB claimants dont pay. Taxpayers do.

From Wall Street 2. "Moral Hazard is where you get to spend someone else's money and you are not responsible for it".

That is what housing benefit is. Why should HB claimants care about how they spend someone else's money?

That's what state education is

That's what your trip to the doctor is

That's what your last journey on a public highway is

That's what your last bin collection is

etc...

etc...

Edited by tallguy

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Ah yes, this is it. 2 seperate propoals, the council housing rents not set in stone at this stage.

Interestingly, they'll be claiming housing benefits to pay for it!

yes! this is the point I've been hammering on about, but no one seems that interested :unsure:

It seems to me that the combination of these two proposals will result in the driving out of the working poor, but leave the HB claimants in place. Sh!tty estates will become sh!ttier as the only the idle remain, which HB will ramp up to pay for - but what sort of private tenants are going to move in at 80% of the cost of somewhere decent?

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That's what state education is

That's what your trip to the doctor is

That's what your last journey on a public highway is

That's what your last bin collection is

etc...

etc...

Er, No. All those are funded by my tax receipts. I pay for them all.

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  • 149 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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