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md23040

Made A S1000 This Afternoon Sitting In The House.

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Played online roulette using the classic martingale system and grand martingale system when losing and then when up in winning used a reverse martingale system with stop losses at $20 per game play. Had a free bet kitty and bought $500 of chips and cleared another S1000 in less than three hours, which is not bad for an afternoons work during Halloween break.

Basically played as follows

Bet 1 ~ $5 bet on odd number at evens -lost

Bet 2 ~ $10 bet on odd number at evens -lost

Bet 3 ~ $20 bet on odd number at evens -$5 up

Bet 4 ~ $10 bet on odd number at evens -Won $15 up

Bet 5 ~ $15 bet on odd number at evens -Won $30 up

(Note $20 limit for upward bets)

Bet 6 ~ $10 bet on odd number at evens -Lost

Bet 7 ~ $20 bet on odd number at evens -Lost

Bet 8 ~ $40 bet on odd number at evens -Won $35 up etc

Had a stop loss at $160 but never had to use it.

Question

There are 36 numbers with 2 zeros so the probability of getting an odds or evens outcome is 47.3% per play. But can someone work out the odds not getting an evens number if you have two, three, four, five and six goes in succession. I know that bets have no memory and on each occasion the odds are always 47.3% but it is on the above succession of probability that had me winning so what’s the probability say of spinning a coin 6 times calling tails and getting heads each time?

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Played online roulette using the classic martingale system and grand martingale system when losing and then when up in winning used a reverse martingale system with stop losses at $20 per game play. Had a free bet kitty and bought $500 of chips and cleared another S1000 in less than three hours, which is not bad for an afternoons work during Halloween break.

Basically played as follows

Bet 1 ~ $5 bet on odd number at evens -lost

Bet 2 ~ $10 bet on odd number at evens -lost

Bet 3 ~ $20 bet on odd number at evens -$5 up

Bet 4 ~ $10 bet on odd number at evens -Won $15 up

Bet 5 ~ $15 bet on odd number at evens -Won $30 up

(Note $20 limit for upward bets)

Bet 6 ~ $10 bet on odd number at evens -Lost

Bet 7 ~ $20 bet on odd number at evens -Lost

Bet 8 ~ $40 bet on odd number at evens -Won $35 up etc

Had a stop loss at $160 but never had to use it.

Question

There are 36 numbers with 2 zeros so the probability of getting an odds or evens outcome is 47.3% per play. But can someone work out the odds not getting an evens number if you have two, three, four, five and six goes in succession. I know that bets have no memory and on each occasion the odds are always 47.3% but it is on the above succession of probability that had me winning so what’s the probability say of spinning a coin 6 times calling tails and getting heads each time?

6 coins spun, the probability of all being heads is 1 in 64.

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Ooh yes, the Martingale.... been around for as long as there have been casinos, it's amazing there are any left by now ;)

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Ooh yes, the Martingale.... been around for as long as there have been casinos, it's amazing there are any left by now ;)

The odds of you managing 6 in a row on a wheel with 38 numbers (two house numbers) are

(18/38)*(18/38)*(18/38)*(18/38)*(18/38)*(18/38)=1.13%

2 times in a row: 22.4%

3 times in a row: 10.6%

4 times in a row: 5.0%

5 times in a row: 2.4%

6 times in a row: 1.1%

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The Martingale works, in the sense that you can theoretically do just better than "breaking even" but only if you have infinite funds and there is not table limit. On a £5 game there is usually a table limit of £500.

Essentially, roulette is a random memoryless game which is governed by the Laws of Mathematics.

It has been beaten, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Jagger is the tale of a brilliant mathematician and engineer who did this over 130 years ago but it took more than a blind belief in Gambler's Fallacy and it is not repeatable.

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The Martingale works, in the sense that you can theoretically do just better than "breaking even" but only if you have infinite funds and there is not table limit. On a £5 game there is usually a table limit of £500.

Essentially, roulette is a random memoryless game which is governed by the Laws of Mathematics.

It has been beaten, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Jagger is the tale of a brilliant mathematician and engineer who did this over 130 years ago but it took more than a blind belief in Gambler's Fallacy and it is not repeatable.

Roulette can be beaten quite easily using radar and a very powerful computer.... however you do this and you get taken to the back room.

And introduced to a hammer.

In old Macau before the PRC took it back you were simply not allowed to win big. You won big you were not allowed to leave the casino.

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I spent a year or two about 5 years ago completely obsessed with roulette and all the systems that exsist.

There's forums out there where people dream up new systems for fun and run them against computer simulations - either random numbers or banks of actual numbers recorded from real roulette wheels.

The martinglae that you mention is the most basic progression based system. Others are Oscar's grind, the labouchere, ect... I spent ages playing about with these and combinations of them. I had considered writing a book about it as I found trying to solve what is basically an impossible problem so fascinating.

If you are up on a martingale, even with a stop loss, you are lucky and should probably quit while you are ahead.

Apart from progression systems the other methods that were talked about over the years were basically all around biased wheels, i.e. roulette computers, manually tracking spins, and I also remember a thing called visual ballistics being mentioned where you could learn, without the aid of a computer learn to 'see' where a ball was likely to land based on the drop point and how fast the wheel was spinning - I never believed that was actually possible however.

I could go on about this more but I've had a rough day at work and my brain is barely functioning.

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Played online roulette using the classic martingale system and grand martingale system when losing and then when up in winning used a reverse martingale system with stop losses at $20 per game play.

Whatever you do on a roulette wheel your basically throwing 2.7% of your stake out the window every go. No 'system' is going to change that. The way to win with the Martingale is to play it on a grand scale, with other people's money, cream off some of the winnings each round and let the tax payer take the hit when you eventually blow out.

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I spent a year or two about 5 years ago completely obsessed with roulette and all the systems that exsist.

There's forums out there where people dream up new systems for fun and run them against computer simulations - either random numbers or banks of actual numbers recorded from real roulette wheels.

The martinglae that you mention is the most basic progression based system. Others are Oscar's grind, the labouchere, ect... I spent ages playing about with these and combinations of them. I had considered writing a book about it as I found trying to solve what is basically an impossible problem so fascinating.

If you are up on a martingale, even with a stop loss, you are lucky and should probably quit while you are ahead.

Apart from progression systems the other methods that were talked about over the years were basically all around biased wheels, i.e. roulette computers, manually tracking spins, and I also remember a thing called visual ballistics being mentioned where you could learn, without the aid of a computer learn to 'see' where a ball was likely to land based on the drop point and how fast the wheel was spinning - I never believed that was actually possible however.

I could go on about this more but I've had a rough day at work and my brain is barely functioning.

No system can account for the croupier.

I know a croupier fairly well and when someone is winning big on a table the croupiers are changed and she is put in. She can pretty much hit numbers, or at least has a much better record than chance.

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No system can account for the croupier.

I know a croupier fairly well and when someone is winning big on a table the croupiers are changed and she is put in. She can pretty much hit numbers, or at least has a much better record than chance.

Yeah I heard about that in the past too - croupiers targeting sectors of the wheel - not sure if I'm convinced that's possible, but there do seem to be plenty of reports of it.

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No system can account for the croupier.

I know a croupier fairly well and when someone is winning big on a table the croupiers are changed and she is put in. She can pretty much hit numbers, or at least has a much better record than chance.

Although this might be possible, I would imagine it's a bit like trying to hit a moving target with a rifle moving in the opposite direction, I can't see them getting the accuracy down to odds and evens/black and red......

Edit: Although, I suppose, if they can target the areas with the zero in it, then they raise the houses chance of winning considerably.

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Although this might be possible, I would imagine it's a bit like trying to hit a moving target with a rifle moving in the opposite direction, I can't see them getting the accuracy down to odds and evens/black and red......

Edit: Although, I suppose, if they can target the areas with the zero in it, then they raise the houses chance of winning considerably.

This actually sounds reasonably plausible when you think about it. If you've ever watched a roulette wheel you'll notice that they are very precise pieces of engineering with very little friction to them. They seem to spin very consistently and take ages to stop. This suggests that a skilled operator could start it spinning at virtually the same speed each time and if he can then release the ball at the same point on the track each time and when the wheel is at the same point in relation to where the ball is released each time then it sould fall pretty much in the same area.

Would this help the casino though as if a similarly skilled player knew what was going on then he could adjust his bet to the relevant section and cancel out the house advantage?

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Although this might be possible, I would imagine it's a bit like trying to hit a moving target with a rifle moving in the opposite direction, I can't see them getting the accuracy down to odds and evens/black and red......

Edit: Although, I suppose, if they can target the areas with the zero in it, then they raise the houses chance of winning considerably.

I know, it seems unlikely.

She did explain though that every wheel in there is different and it takes time to learn them. She only knows how they all 'feel' (if thats the right description) from a lot of time at each table.

I dont see how anyone can hit a 50/50 like odd/even or black/red but she is the one called to stop winning streaks. Presumably to make sure that the ball doesnt land in certain sections when punters are betting on numbers. I dont think anyone really makes money playing odd/even or black/red, casino's ignore them as the inevitable is only a matter of time.

Apparently she has the record (staff game) of hitting 0's the most times when aiming for them, not sure how many or out of how many spins, will ask though.

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Would this help the casino though as if a similarly skilled player knew what was going on then he could adjust his bet to the relevant section and cancel out the house advantage?

I will ask how it is done.

I think it could help if you know the wheel sections and put bets in the numbers that cover more areas. Would make it harder for a croupier to aim at un covered quadrants.

I had some success in Canada betting in areas opposite to some rich yanks. I seemed to win many more times than they did. Maybe I was irrelevant and it was more important for the croupier to stay away from the numbers with piles of chips on? I dont know if it was pure chance or a good croupier but the inevitable happened anyway and I havent touched roulette since.

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I will ask how it is done.

I think it could help if you know the wheel sections and put bets in the numbers that cover more areas. Would make it harder for a croupier to aim at un covered quadrants.

I had some success in Canada betting in areas opposite to some rich yanks. I seemed to win many more times than they did. Maybe I was irrelevant and it was more important for the croupier to stay away from the numbers with piles of chips on? I dont know if it was pure chance or a good croupier but the inevitable happened anyway and I havent touched roulette since.

A lot of punters place their bets after the ball and wheel are spinning. Most, actually. :rolleyes:

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Played online roulette using the classic martingale system and grand martingale system when losing and then when up in winning used a reverse martingale system with stop losses at $20 per game play. Had a free bet kitty and bought $500 of chips and cleared another S1000 in less than three hours, which is not bad for an afternoons work during Halloween break.

Keep playing mate, you're paying my wages.

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I will ask how it is done.

I think it could help if you know the wheel sections and put bets in the numbers that cover more areas. Would make it harder for a croupier to aim at un covered quadrants.

I had some success in Canada betting in areas opposite to some rich yanks. I seemed to win many more times than they did. Maybe I was irrelevant and it was more important for the croupier to stay away from the numbers with piles of chips on? I dont know if it was pure chance or a good croupier but the inevitable happened anyway and I havent touched roulette since.

I find roulette fascinating, I mean a real-time game at a proper casino. I know that realistically speaking I'm not going to come out ahead but sometimes it really does feel like you are beating the house by trying to play the odds by betting on red when there's been a lot of blacks come up, for instance. The mentality for this is along the lines of, "I know that lots of blacks can come up, maybe 8, 10, 15 or even 20 on a run but the higer the number the less likely it is to happen. Therefore, if I consistently put money on red after a few blacks have come up I'm more likely to be putting it on the winning colour.". It's quite a rational train of thought when you think about it.

I've certainly been well up doing this sort of thing but the problem seems to be knowing when to stop along with staying sober enough to remember what you are doing. Having said that, I think that I probably just remember the good nights over the bad. I think I may do an experiment over the next few visits and see if I actually come out ahead.

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A lot of punters place their bets after the ball and wheel are spinning. Most, actually. :rolleyes:

I think I have a casino trip on Saturday, actually. I'll try to take a mental note of whether the ball tends to settle in a similar position in relation to what part of the wheel it was released. I think the alcohol and blonde company may prove too much of a distraction though.

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A lot of punters place their bets after the ball and wheel are spinning. Most, actually. :rolleyes:

Most goes on before the ball starts spinning imo and people who are drinking dont think at all.

Waiting for the ball to spin sounds the best time to bet though.

Edit; actually you might be right, I dont go to casino's often, never play roulette and am always drinking. Doesnt explain why the croupier I know is put on tables that are losing the house money. Something else to ask I guess.

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I have a good friend who bought his own wheel for £10k and practiced judging ball speed against wheel position for months on end.

He got good enough to give himself and edge, enough of an edge to beat the 2.7% that the house has.

As a result he made a decent amount of money, but also got banned from every casino in his home city.

This might sound fanciful but he is a true gambler. He's written a couple of books on the subject and was a consistent winner on Betfair until they introduced the 20% tax for big winners.

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The Martingale works, in the sense that you can theoretically do just better than "breaking even" but only if you have infinite funds and there is not table limit. On a £5 game there is usually a table limit of £500.

Essentially, roulette is a random memoryless game which is governed by the Laws of Mathematics.

It has been beaten, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Jagger is the tale of a brilliant mathematician and engineer who did this over 130 years ago but it took more than a blind belief in Gambler's Fallacy and it is not repeatable.

From that article:

"Jagger resigned from his job at the mill and invested his money in property"

Boo hiss.

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I have a good friend who bought his own wheel for £10k and practiced judging ball speed against wheel position for months on end.

He got good enough to give himself and edge, enough of an edge to beat the 2.7% that the house has.

As a result he made a decent amount of money, but also got banned from every casino in his home city.

This might sound fanciful but he is a true gambler. He's written a couple of books on the subject and was a consistent winner on Betfair until they introduced the 20% tax for big winners.

He was ripped off!

Ex-casino roulette table

I think that if I take down the wall between my dining and living rooms this would just about fit!

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The two most basic strategies of roulette are the

Martingale

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DMNLMMnSGWw

Safe Martingale

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NU6AtOXcsbs

Sometimes the basic strategies are the best to use if in conjunction with others at various times of game play.

The Casino always has a 5% advantage over the punter same as Blackjack. But in 21's using card counting gives an 8% swing to the punter with a 3% advantage, which in turn devastates Casino's and therefore banned. A roulette system must be able to lessen any advantage to your favour too.

In any system of betting it is important to have a stop loss. For me $155 ($5 start punts although this can be lowered to 25c). Therefore if a red is played the likelihood of all probability is that the next turn will be Black and based on the sequence it is 4 to 1 (or if you allow to 2 reds to upturn as in second strategy then the likelihood is 16 to 1).

Albeit in relative terms odds are always 47.5% but it is in the sequence of probabilities that determines likely outcomes that is focused on.

(Caveat)~ the following is probably full of holes and that’s okay since I haven’t betted since the winning so it is safe, so please feel free to decimate.

The stop loss of $155 allows for 5 strings of bad roulette turns to go against you. So that is bet 1 ($5), bet 2 ($10), bet 3 ($20), bet 4 ($40), bet 5 ($80) or 5+10+20+40+80 = $155. The chances of not winning in the first YouTube clip are 64 to 1 and on the second version 128 to 1. Whenever the play loses you revert back to $5 bet to recover the $5. The chances of the string remaining negative are then 8192 to 1.

Therefore it is important to be up in winning of more than $150 before a bad string emerges. Now again purely on the chances of probability if $5 is the winning achieved each time then this amount must me won in 64 or less turns. Based on 47.3% likelihood of probability the turns will be as follows

(i) £5 win on first turn (47.3%) chance ~ one turn

(ii) £5 on first turn and lost, £10 to win and a win ~ two turns

(iii) £5 on first turn and lost, £10 on second turn ad lost, £20 to win and win ~ three turns

6 turns to win £15 therefore on simple probability around 47.3% chance it will take less than the 64 turns before the stop loss should emerge.

*Edit changed the sums but still a 6% advantage to the punter in first strategy and signifigantly larger in second. Also European Roulette only has one zero so the chances of winning are rapidly higher at 48.65%.

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  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

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      • down 5% +
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