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Freelance Mycophagist

Same Bullsh*t, Different Country

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Guest consa

It's amazing how similar things are around the world.  Should be interesting seeing how this one progresses.  I reckon its lagging by a year or so, so it's Australia first, UK next, then SA and finally the US?

This is one of the most crucial markets to watch. SA has had the highest rate of HPI globally and I suspect it will be hit hardest, as for who will be first, well that is anyones guess at the moment.

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It's worth keeping an eye on Erwin Rode's website.

He appears to one of the few independent economic commentators.

Here he contemplates selling his house and renting for 5 to 10 years...


Look at the graph in the middle of the page, looks like he regards SA property as 60% over-valued.

That's quite frightening for a piss-pot economy where the currency can lose half it's value for no reason, and interest rates hit 20% every few years.

Along with Ireland, one of my top choices for house price armageddon.

Edited by BandWagon

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Erwin Rode is wide awake.

The trouble is, as here, the "experts" are estate agents and mortgage companies.

Unemployment is 40% (or 30%, if you believe the goverment), the country has one of the highest crime rates in the world, and a deputy state president who thinks that the country should follow Zimababwe's land reform policies.

Sure it's a beautiful place, but then so is St Kitts/ St Lucia/Barbados etc

In Cape Town you will be very lucky to get a 5% yield, while mortgage rates are 10%, and that is a historic low.

The rental market is completely saturated, there never has been a good rental market in SA.

Property developers are going crazy developing, there are no obstacles to planning permission that a brown envelope won't solve.

Yet I know people in the process of buying a house.

I mentioned to them that property was more over-valued than at any time in recent history.

Their retort was that prices were forecast to go up 25% next year, and that you couldn't go wrong buying property.

I didn't bother to argue.

Edited by BandWagon

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  • 341 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?

      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%

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