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Guest pioneer31

Here's The Trigger

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Guest pioneer31

Electricity and gas up 15% on last year, oil prices exceeding £1 a litre and forecast to go higher, add on council tax hikes and voila. I think this is now the point at which price falls will accelerate (and in areas that are stagnant, they will start to fall)

What does my head in is that we seem to have the worst of both worlds - inflation busting rises in our outgoings but the official figure is kept at 2%, so pitiful pay rises, pitiful interest.

We're just getting poorer and poorer. Thanks GB.

At what point will he admit the real inflation figure

Edited by pioneer31

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Quite soon you are going to find people asking for higher pay rises. That is the economy's warning bell.

It is becoming very clear to people now that their standards of living are starting to fall, and alarmingly fast.

Many of us are experiencing inflation of 15% (and that's in essential purchases, not DVD players)

With labour staying in power and increasing taxes and public spending, this is going to get worse.

GB has had the luxury of the biggest housing boom in this country's history to prop up the economy and increase his tax revenues.

It's done a great job of hiding the cracks in the labour strategy.

Now that the housing boom jobs are starting to go (and you can expect unemployment to climb, up 40% is not unusual), we are going to see a decline in GDP.

I believe he grossly underestimated how much this boom did for the economy.

Brown is going to have to either continue raising taxes, or borrowing or both.

Essentially we've reached an inflection point.

GB may be able to hide this from his population, but he can't hide it from the markets.

Fortunately any fiddling with inflation by the goverment will being to show in the forex markets, so watch the value of Sterling.

It's been 13 years since the last Sterling crisis.

I will not be in the least surprised to see a sharp fall in the currency and an accompanied rapid rise in interest rates within the next few years.

Edited by BandWagon

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If inflation does start to shoot off is it a good idea to consider buying? Get a fixed rate and then let inflation erode your debt? Not sure if the time is quite right yet, we'll see what happens to the end of the year because I reckon this will set the one of the future.

Brown is going to have to either continue raising taxes, or borrowing or both.

Ah you forget the other alternatives...start sacking employees as organisations do in high inflation periods or stop spending money he isn't earning! Both would have a very detrimental effect on the UK economy/psyche.

I believe he grossly underestimated how much this boom did for the economy.

:angry: Whoops, I'm getting angry just thinking about Brown. You can be sure he's thinking of getting into No. 10 ASAP. Must find sacrificial lamb, must scapegoat junior MP for mess I have created...

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Ah you forget the other alternatives...start sacking employees as organisations do in high inflation periods or stop spending money he isn't earning!  Both would have a very detrimental effect on the UK economy/psyche.

Labour goverments don't like losing jobs. Their usual strategy is to increase public spending, increasing public sector employment, and increase borrowing and taxes.

EXACTLY as Brown is doing now.

Unfortunately the markets always wise up to this, and start demanding higher rates of interest.

Between a rock and a hard place...

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Pioneer,

It is on average probably a lot more than that - the companies are not just raising them once a year. Here's some stats for 2004.

POWERGEN'S PRICE RISES

Electricity price increased by 6.9% January 2004

Electricity price increased by 8.9% November 2004

Gas price increased by 4.9% January 2004

Gas price increased by 3.1% in September 2004

Gas price increased by 9.6% in November 2004

People are already feeling the effects of continued above salary inflation for evidence of that you only have to look at the savings rate, which is falling, this has been going on for years.

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Guest Riser
If inflation does start to shoot off is it a good idea to consider buying?  Get a fixed rate and then let inflation erode your debt?  Not sure if the time is quite right yet, we'll see what happens to the end of the year because I reckon this will set the one of the future.

Ah you forget the other alternatives...start sacking employees as organisations do in high inflation periods or stop spending money he isn't earning!  Both would have a very detrimental effect on the UK economy/psyche.

:angry:  Whoops, I'm getting angry just thinking about Brown.  You can be sure he's thinking of getting into No. 10 ASAP.  Must find sacrificial lamb, must scapegoat junior MP for mess I have created...

What we are seeing now is hidden inflation eating away at our savings and take home pay. For inflation to work in your favour we would need to see our take home pay rising faster than inflation in the cost of products and services.

The main reason Brown artificially keeps the inflation figures down is to keep pay increases low while he turns a blind eye to inflation in the cost of energy, housing and day to day items. Fiddling the inflation figures over the past nine years has also enabled him to keep interest rates artificially low which has fueled consumer debt and created the house price bubble.

I agree that converting your hard earned cash into an asset is the best way of defending it against the corrosive effects of inflation but I believe gold offers a better alternative to property.

Edit: Brown is doing anything he can to prevent people looking behind the green curtain where they will see his deception about CPI, hidden government PFI and costs, the looming energy crises, the public sector time bomb, tax increases, and inflation driven by fuel costs and EU trade restrictions.

Edited by Riser

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If you are a business that relies on energy as amain component it is even worse.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/newspaper/0,,...1774225,00.html

The Engineering Employers’ Federation, in another report, will say many firms have already seen gas and electricity bills rise by more than 30% and fear further increases over the winter.

Yes, it's crossed my mind. In June I was made redundant from a large German engineering company, I can't tell how glad I am to be out of there now. Their last set of results were unimpressive to say the least (although their shares are defying gravity at the moment), but I worry about what sort of future my former colleagues will have.

They are gonne be getting squeezed so hard in the near future.

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Guest Riser
High fuel prices will certainly give the UK another big push towards being a third world service economy. And this is only the beginning...

Brown was wriggling on the TV this morning saying inflation due to International issues such as fuel prices could hit the UK economy. Nothing to do with him taking up any slack the economy may have had to absorb an oil shock then.

He admitted the world was facing an oil shock as severe as in the 1970's. Andrew Meyer pointed out that oil devastated the economy back then sending it into recession. Brown replied that it was a possibility if haulers and the public did not act responsibly in response to increased fuel prices. He refused to say if reducing Tax on fuel was an option to reduce the shock.

Fears that higher oil prices are pushing up UK inflation

HIGHER oil prices are exerting significant upward pressure on inflation, official figures are set to show this week. After a month in which crude oil prices topped a record $70 a barrel, figures tomorrow are set to show industry’s raw material and fuel costs rising at their fastest rate for more than 20 years.

They will be followed by the consumer prices index (CPI) on Tuesday, which is expected to show inflation rising even further above the government’s 2% target. Analysts expect an August rate of 2.4% or 2.5% this week, from 2.3% in July, and warn that this is unlikely to be the peak.

Worse lies ahead for the September CPI, which could be close to 3%,” said Michael Saunders at Citigroup.

If inflation were to top 3% Mervyn King, the Bank of England governor, would be required to write an open letter to the chancellor explaining the divergence from the target

While analysts have not given up hope of further interest-rate cuts before the end of 2005, they concede it will be difficult for the Bank to reduce rates with inflation so far above target, even if the cause is mainly oil.

King, in a speech at the central bankers’ conference in Wyoming last month, warned of the risk of higher oil prices pushing up inflation expectations and triggering higher pay settlements. So far, this has not happened.

Business, however, is concerned about the impact of high petrol prices. The Institute of Directors will call on the government tomorrow to cut the duty on fuel. It is concerned both about the economic effects and the disruption that could arise from fuel protests scheduled to begin this week.

The Engineering Employers’ Federation, in another report, will say many firms have already seen gas and electricity bills rise by more than 30% and fear further increases over the winter.

Edited by Riser

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Why do papers talk about reducing interest rates, or saying that it will be difficult to reduce them with high inflation:

"While analysts have not given up hope of further interest-rate cuts before the end of 2005, they concede it will be difficult for the Bank to reduce rates..."

Shouldn't interest rates be going up?

Edited by Jason

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Guest Riser
Why do papers talk about reducing interest rates, or saying that it will be difficult to reduce them with high inflation:

"While analysts have not given up hope of further interest-rate cuts before the end of 2005, they concede it will be difficult for the Bank to reduce rates..."

Shouldn't interest rates be going up?

The press have been spinning the role of the MPC away from controlling inflation towards maintaining economic growth at any cost.

The problem with lowering interest rates to increase ecnomic growth is that the resulting growth is based on debt and spending which is not a long term solution.

Edited by Riser

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I bought a great multi region DVD player for £30..

a nd a (less good granted..) suround sound system for £35..

Nice to know that Gordon puts this expenditure as more of an inflation key then..

Petrol Prices.

Council Tax..

House Prices

Electrical Bills

Gas Bills

Water Rates

The above I estimate have cost me in the Region of £150 more a month then it did a few years ago....

and I havent bought a house...

If I had.. would that be..

oh another £300 a month..

So I am glad that my DVD player is cheap..

I have no money left to spend more on one because inflation is so damn high..

You might tell us different.. But we have less money each month.. so try and convince the economy that I am not having to find this extra money..

Gordon..

When does incompetance become so bad that it should be considered treason.?

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Guest Bart of Darkness
Brown replied that it was a possibility if haulers and the public did not act responsibly in response to increased fuel prices.

Oh Lordy! :(

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Trigger proudly displays a medal to anyone who will look which he was awarded by the local council for having contributed to the community by using the same brush for the past 20 years. He then proudly holds up the brush and claims "Maintained it for 20 years. This old broom's had 17 new heads and 14 new handles in its time." When Sid inquires how it can be classed as the same brush, Trigger angrily shows him a picture of him receiving the medal and demands "Well there's the bloody picture! What more proof do you need?"

Is this the Trigger you are talking about? :rolleyes:

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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