TheCountOfNowhere Posted October 25, 2010 Author Share Posted October 25, 2010 Followed by WW3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Cavey Posted October 26, 2010 Share Posted October 26, 2010 Have the BBC broken the embargo? Meanwhile, the housing market has also started to suffer. Figures released by the Nationwide Building Society later this week are expected to show a 0.4% fall in property prices between September and October. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saving For a Space Ship Posted October 26, 2010 Share Posted October 26, 2010 Beeb Link UK economic recovery 'to show sharp slowdown' Meanwhile, the housing market has also started to suffer. Figures released by the Nationwide Building Society later this week are expected to show a 0.4% fall in property prices between September and October. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattyfc Posted October 26, 2010 Share Posted October 26, 2010 Typical BBC. It is only a "sharp slowdown" because the previous figures were about 100% higher than expected. Sensationalist drivel. If GDP had been previous 0.2% would they be wrting about GDP growth soaring 100%? Not likely. Meanwhile, the housing market has also started to suffer. Figures released by the Nationwide Building Society later this week are expected to show a 0.4% fall in property prices between September and October. But Howard Archer, chief economist at IHS Global Insight, warns against reading too much into the third quarter figures, because preliminary ONS estimates can be inaccurate At least they could wait until the figures are released and then put up an article. Talking down the economy before they even have the data to support it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyoto Posted October 26, 2010 Share Posted October 26, 2010 They say expected. 0.4% is current consensus. Don't think they've broken any embargo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pent Up Posted October 26, 2010 Share Posted October 26, 2010 They say expected. 0.4% is current consensus. Don't think they've broken any embargo. Yep that's an estimate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roost Posted October 26, 2010 Share Posted October 26, 2010 I'm not sure anyone does know whether QE made any difference. Personally, I think the stamp duty holiday had more of an impact (and low base rates of course). Since then though, that has been scaled back to FTBs and SVRs have been creeping up. I'm not sure this government could keep the ponzi going even if they wanted to. Agreed; If anything the only impact on QE would be purchases filtering down indirectly into looser lending... On its own I don't believe that's enough to reverse a downward trend in prices. Just like as it was on the way up, the market is driven by its own impetus... All that is needed for prices to go down, is prices to go down. As with any kind of deflation people would rather wait 1 extra month than work an extra 6 to pay off the mortgage Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC10 Posted October 26, 2010 Share Posted October 26, 2010 (edited) I think QE did make a difference to the extent that it gave banks the breathing space on their balance books and made them less likely to repossess. I know a friend who was at least 6 months behind on his btl mortgage. He is teetering on the edge of negative equity with a whole pile of other debts. His bank bent over backwards to let him keep the house given he has sitting tennents who are happily paying rent (Don't ask why he wasn't paying the mortgage if he was getting rent...). The bank eventually just added the arrears to the mortagage. That would never have happened in the past. Lower interest rates were crucial in that his mortagage is now covered by the rent so he is keeping afloat but QE was important in taking pressure off the banks. How many others are in the same position? That must feed through to house prices somehow. Edited October 26, 2010 by CrashingPumpkin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest_FaFa!_* Posted October 26, 2010 Share Posted October 26, 2010 At least they could wait until the figures are released and then put up an article. Talking down the economy before they even have the data to support it? And now they have some egg on their faces as it is 0.8 not 0.4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted October 27, 2010 Author Share Posted October 27, 2010 Any other guesses for tomorrows (potentially) happy news ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxy Posted October 27, 2010 Share Posted October 27, 2010 Any other guesses for tomorrows (potentially) happy news ? -1.1% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted October 27, 2010 Share Posted October 27, 2010 I think it will be plus 1%, or just over, rise. I am convinced that Nationwide, as I mentioned elsewhere in this thread, need a rising housing market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattyfc Posted October 27, 2010 Share Posted October 27, 2010 Going for 0.0% no Change. Prices want to fall, there is little demand for taking out a large mortgage as it is financial suicide for most. Unless unemployment increases a lot I don't see how they can fall very quickly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Monk Posted October 27, 2010 Share Posted October 27, 2010 -0.8% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted October 27, 2010 Share Posted October 27, 2010 -1.2% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siskin Posted October 27, 2010 Share Posted October 27, 2010 -1.8% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
athom Posted October 27, 2010 Share Posted October 27, 2010 -3.6 well who would have believed it last month either Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted October 27, 2010 Share Posted October 27, 2010 FWIIW there were some big chunk selling of BDEV shares today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DungBeetle Posted October 27, 2010 Share Posted October 27, 2010 I think QE did make a difference to the extent that it gave banks the breathing space on their balance books and made them less likely to repossess. I know a friend who was at least 6 months behind on his btl mortgage. He is teetering on the edge of negative equity with a whole pile of other debts. His bank bent over backwards to let him keep the house given he has sitting tennents who are happily paying rent (Don't ask why he wasn't paying the mortgage if he was getting rent...). The bank eventually just added the arrears to the mortagage. That would never have happened in the past. Lower interest rates were crucial in that his mortagage is now covered by the rent so he is keeping afloat but QE was important in taking pressure off the banks. How many others are in the same position? That must feed through to house prices somehow. QE made no difference to the banks, Government debt gave them the breathing space. QE covered the required government debt precisely (and lowered the cost of servicing it). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted October 27, 2010 Share Posted October 27, 2010 (edited) QE made no difference to the banks, Government debt gave them the breathing space. QE covered the required government debt precisely (and lowered the cost of servicing it). To be blunt, I don't think those arguing for more QE give a jot about the effect it will have on the economy, jobs, you, I or anyone other than themselves and the big bonuses that they - the financial bods in the City - will get as a result of QE II. At the risk of sounding paranoid - some hope on this site - I believe we are living in an era where democratic processes have been usurped by the boys and girls in the City and on Wall Street and they are rigging the game, the economy, our countries for their own financial gain. I know it has always been thus but, in the past 50 years, at least there was an attempt to keep connected with the masses - we seem to have gone back to the early 19th Century and before in the gap between the rich and us. Edit: Can't say any more as I must go and see if there is any news about the nation's sweetheart in tomorrow's tabloids! Edited October 27, 2010 by The Masked Tulip Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DungBeetle Posted October 27, 2010 Share Posted October 27, 2010 +0.2% I hope I'm wrong, but I think nominal prices will be generally be stable over the next six months (yet the real price will drop -2% due to inflation). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exiges Posted October 27, 2010 Share Posted October 27, 2010 (edited) FWIIW there were some big chunk selling of BDEV shares today. Over 3% down today and down 25% this month (if my stats are correct) Nice. Edited October 27, 2010 by exiges Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exiges Posted October 27, 2010 Share Posted October 27, 2010 This index is sold prices rather than asking prices, so it won't be as stupidly optimistic as Rightmove, I'll go for a weak -0.2% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newbie Posted October 27, 2010 Share Posted October 27, 2010 - 3.6% You would have scoffed at such a prediction last month and yet ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest_James Toney_* Posted October 28, 2010 Share Posted October 28, 2010 is this out today? heard nothing on the radio yet, they usually say, and what time it is coming out, that or it is such bad news the bbc dont want to say i hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.