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'32% Think House Prices Will Fall'

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More people think house prices will fall during the coming year than those who think they will rise, a survey has shown.

Around 32% of potential buyers think the value of property will fall during the coming 12 months, with only 27% optimistic that prices will be higher a year from now, according to property website Rightmove.

A further 36% of people planning a move think the housing market will stagnate during the coming year and prices will be unchanged.

The situation represents a significant turnaround from this time last year, when the number of people who thought house prices would rise outnumbered those who predicted a fall by five to one.

Miles Shipside, director of Rightmove, said: "This time last year 56% of respondents to our survey asserted that house prices would be higher in a year's time and that proved to be an accurate forecast.

"However, this quarter the majority is gone and opinion is divided. It's unusual to see such a split but it shows that current economic uncertainty is forcing people to take sides in their view of the housing market.

"When sentiment is split as it is, or when there is no clear and prevailing view, a typical reaction from potential home-movers is 'no action'."

While potential buyers are currently being constrained by a lack of mortgage availability, the survey suggested they were also holding back from making a decision due to other concerns.

Around 27% of people who think prices will be lower in a year's time said they were concerned about the economic situation while 20% are worried about a squeeze on household incomes. But a third of those who think prices will be higher cited confidence in the economy as the main reason for their optimism.

Mr Shipside said: "After months of speculation, the realities of the Government's comprehensive spending review are upon us and it is clear from this survey that the success or failure of the cuts in the wider economy will have a big impact on the property market."

But what about who would like to live next door to Simon cowell?

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But what about who would like to live next door to Simon cowell?

So 32% fall, 36% stagnate and 27% rise = 95%

What about the other 5%, were they comatose, unable to provide a coherent response?

Where do they carry out these surveys!

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"Around 32% of potential buyers think the value of property will fall during the coming 12 months, with only 27% optimistic that prices will be higher a year from now"

Who can spot the subtle bit of psychology in that sentence?

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So 32% fall, 36% stagnate and 27% rise = 95%

What about the other 5%, were they comatose, unable to provide a coherent response?

Where do they carry out these surveys!

I think the other 5% want to live next Simon cowell?

It's an Internet survey. It was posted here a few weeks ago if your registered with rightmove for email spam you get sent them. It's also put on their facebook page.

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the source of HPI is mortgages.

mortgages were easy to get because of the miracle of securization.

Securitization was "enhanced" manyfold by SIVs and CDO deals.

OK, some facts out of the way.

Look at the US...it appears, that to reduce the costs of the above for the "system", they cheated, circumvented laws and lied about the quality of loans underpinning our pensions, our banks and our businesses.

they have been caught out.

OK...it started in America....BUT....our Banks, did the same thing...and they had to SELL their own MBS into the same financial markets as the Americans....

HOW did they compete?...was it by telling the truth at all levels?...or did they do the self same fraud the US bankers did?

If you believe they were 100% honest with everyone....then MBS will be available for cheap mortgages in the coming years....

I dont see how they could possibly have competed if they were.

I therefore beleive mortgages are going to have to come from savings......and that means a severe shortage.

That means 68% of that survey will be 100% wrong....very very wrong.

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"Around 32% of potential buyers think the value of property will fall during the coming 12 months, with only 27% optimistic that prices will be higher a year from now"

Who can spot the subtle bit of psychology in that sentence?

I've done these surveys a couple of times - they are carefully worded to elicit the response they want. You have to be very sharp to avoid sounding like you are bullish about houseprices/the market. For example, saying that you are planning to buy in the next 12 months is asked in such a way that this sounds like you think the market is rising when in face you may be motivated by believing the situation is ripe for some harsh negotiation.

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A week or two ago, I was doing my usual right move data collation, when a pop up asked for my opinions, so that is one way they get the data. If this is the only way then not many people look at rightmove who are not looking to move house! So a negative number like this must be very very bearish! They did ask if I intended to buy in next 12 months, but they also asked if I thought now would be a good time to buy and would it be better in a years time. So you could get in that you hope to buy, but only after big price falls in the coming months.

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http://propertytalklive.co.uk/house-prices/4555-price-pessimists-lead-to-price-sentiment-split

This time last year 56% of respondents to our survey asserted that house prices would be higher in a years’ time and that proved to be an accurate forecast

According to the Halifax monthly data they were wrong :)

However, it shouldn’t be forgotten that a drop in house prices improves affordability and may bring prices into reach for some potential buyers currently unwilling or unable to proceed.”

Good old Miles Shipside. He knows the score.

Ooh Miles, wamping is becoming more difficult. Must try harder.

Actually miles rarely ramps. He's been very realistic in his analysis as far back as January. Even verging on bearish sometimes.

Maybe it's because price is irrelevant to rightmove they need turnover regardless of prices.

Edited by Pent Up

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the source of HPI is mortgages.

mortgages were easy to get because of the miracle of securization.

Securitization was "enhanced" manyfold by SIVs and CDO deals.

OK, some facts out of the way.

Look at the US...it appears, that to reduce the costs of the above for the "system", they cheated, circumvented laws and lied about the quality of loans underpinning our pensions, our banks and our businesses.

they have been caught out.

OK...it started in America....BUT....our Banks, did the same thing...and they had to SELL their own MBS into the same financial markets as the Americans....

HOW did they compete?...was it by telling the truth at all levels?...or did they do the self same fraud the US bankers did?

If you believe they were 100% honest with everyone....then MBS will be available for cheap mortgages in the coming years....

I dont see how they could possibly have competed if they were.

I therefore beleive mortgages are going to have to come from savings......and that means a severe shortage.

That means 68% of that survey will be 100% wrong....very very wrong.

What's the latest on RBS's £4.7bn mortgage securitisation announced in September?

Has it been offered yet? Any takers?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/39144821

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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