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Bob Loblaw

Pound Forecast To Tumble On 'insane' Spending Cuts

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/8082803/Pound-forecast-to-tumble-on-insane-spending-cuts.html

"I think what Britain is doing is absolutely insane" John Taylor, the founder of the $8bn FXConcepts fund, told The Sunday Telegraph. "The Conservatives will lose their stomach for this."

Reducing Britain's £156bn budget deficit is the cornerstone of the government's plan for restoring the economy's health. George Osborne, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, told Parliament last week that the £81bn in spending cuts would pull "Britain back from the brink."

"The last retail sales numbers were pretty ugly and then we have to go through the VAT hit," said Mr Taylor, who at 67 is one of the oldest operators in the foreign-exchange markets. The pound will fall below 1.40, possibly this year, he expects. Sterling reached 1.43, its weakest against the dollar this year in May."

However, Mr Taylor is sceptical that the dollar's decline against the euro can be sustained. "The euro at 1.40 for six months will put Europe back in recession. I can't believe the European authorities are being as stupid as this."

Rate rise soon?

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"I think what Britain is doing is absolutely insane" John Taylor, the founder of the $8bn FXConcepts fund, told The Sunday Telegraph. "The Conservatives will lose their stomach for this."

So we've reached the stage where merely increasing spending by 2.5% a year (more or less keeping it flat in real terms) is considered insane.

Sanity is therefore having the state make up a larger proportion of the economy year after year. And this guy is a finance professional.

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So we've reached the stage where merely increasing spending by 2.5% a year (more or less keeping it flat in real terms) is considered insane.

Sanity is therefore having the state make up a larger proportion of the economy year after year. And this guy is a finance professional.

And a V.I.

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Ive started purchasing swiss francs, with no interest rate rises on the cards before 2014 ( outside of a greater crisis ) I think sterling is at its high point for a while.

QE, slower recovery than predicted, falling housing market, rising unemployment, vat and petrol hikes, all have to weigh against stirling.

The VI quoted in the article is not that bearish compared to some commentators.

Edited by bricor mortis

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Ive started purchasing swiss francs, with no interest rate rises on the cards before 2014 ( outside of a greater crisis ) I think sterling is at its high point for a while.

QE, slower recovery than predicted, falling housing market, rising unemployment, vat and petrol hikes, all have to weigh against stirling.

The VI quoted in the article is not that bearish compared to some commentators.

Swiss franc eh? According to this you are buying the most overvalued currency in the world.

http://www.marketobservation.com/blogs/index.php/2010/10/18/title-230?blog=10

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Swiss franc eh? According to this you are buying the most overvalued currency in the world.

http://www.marketobservation.com/blogs/index.php/2010/10/18/title-230?blog=10

thats quite interesting, only recently i offloaded half of CHFs into dollars and expect to do the same with the other half within the next six months, i didnt use the big mac for reference but i reckon that it could potentially lose half its value against the dollar over the next 2 to 3 years, its had a ripper of a run for the last 3 years (about 40% up against the gbp)

id also add anecdotally that alot of people are getting pissed of with it over here because its killing the small exporters, quite a few are going down

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka

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  • 145 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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