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DoubleBubbleTrouble

Edinburgh - Unsold Properties Piling Up

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Yet again this weeks data manages to surprise me, be warned this data doesn't make pleasant reading if you are trying to sell somewhere at the moment (like my neighbour who's very nice property has been "Under Offer" for 4 weeks and counting).

The highlights are;

* Properties for sale up to 2636 up 81 from last week

* A big jump in the number of properties which I have seen previously been advertised returning, 64 of them!

* The number for sale as fixed prices up 22 from last week

* The overall percentage of Fixed Prices is down to 48.75% however this is driven by the increase in unsold property this week not a decrease in the number of Fixed Prices themselves.

Here's the data make what you will of it;

                         23/06   30/06   23/07   28/07   06/08   01/09   08/09Central Bungalows       0       0       0       0       0       0       0        Flats           202     204     177     185     181     181     198        Houses          12      10      7       7       8       7       5                                                               East    Bungalows       14      15      18      17      20      12      13        Flats           382     383     370     363     338     335     345        Houses          59      62      52      52      49      49      49                                                               North   Bungalows       17      15      17      19      18      16      15        Flats           163     153     143     143     142     132     126        Houses          82      82      76      79      76      75      77                                                               NWest   Bungalows       4       4       4       4       4       3       2        Flats           5       6       5       7       7       7       6        Houses          27      25      30      30      30      27      29                                                               South   Bungalows       18      19      19      17      15      16      18        Flats           226     235     238     236     238     196     196        Houses          86      86      91      86      82      81      84                                                               SWest   Bungalows       2       3       3       3       3       6       6        Flats           2       3       3       3       3       3       3        Houses          16      16      21      19      14      15      19                                                               West    Bungalows       0       0       0       0       1       1       1        Flats           86      84      82      82      79      86      79        Houses          15      16      14      13      14      15      14                                                               Totals  Bungalows       55      56      61      60      61      54      55        Flats           1066    1068    1018    1019    988     940     953        Houses          297     297     291     286     273     269     277                                                                       Grand           1418    1421    1370    1365    1322    1263    1285                                                                       Total Props     2771    2658    2519    2504    2423    2555    2636        % FP            51.17%  53.46%  54.39%  54.51%  54.56%  49.43%  48.75%                                                                       Headline number 6228    6108    6000    5854    5786    6113    6236

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Yet again this weeks data manages to surprise me, be warned this data doesn't make pleasant reading if you are trying to sell somewhere at the moment (like my neighbour who's very nice property has been "Under Offer" for 4 weeks and counting).

I am still watching the three properties on my corstorphine street. It seems like a Mexican stand off to me.

Two of them have been on the market since at least late June. One has not altered its fixed price in all that time. The other shaved off 5%, some incentive!

A third property came on two months ago at OO but went to FP within 4 weeks at a higher price. Still not moved either.

A fourth property sold within 6 weeks but I suspect quietly accepted a lower offer.

As for the three which are stubbornly holding out for a high price, I can only assume they bought late in the property boom. Hence the Mexican stand-off, the buyers are holding off but the sellers don't want to lose their profits!

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As for the three which are stubbornly holding out for a high price, I can only assume they bought late in the property boom. Hence the Mexican stand-off, the buyers are holding off but the sellers don't want to lose their profits!

Or maybe like a friend of mine, they've bought somewhere else based on getting the amount they have fixed their own house at? In his case, if he doesn't get the fixed price in the next couple of weeks, he's royally f****d. Sadly, he didn't ask my advice, and I didn't know about it until it was too late so there is absolutely nothing I can do.

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Or maybe like a friend of mine, they've bought somewhere else based on getting the amount they have fixed their own house at? In his case, if he doesn't get the fixed price in the next couple of weeks, he's royally f****d. Sadly, he didn't ask my advice, and I didn't know about it until it was too late so there is absolutely nothing I can do.

There seems to be a lot of people out there still living in the Edinburgh of 2003-2004 and buying before they sell which is madness in the buyers market of today.

Of course this situation isn't helped by the likes of Halifax/Nationwide who's indexes do not reflect the real state of the market, or the usual tripe published in the Scotsman/Sunday which glosses over the current problems with misleading quotes courtesy of local solicitors. It's about the papers faced up to the reality of the situation, things are bad... dire in some areas (Leith for example) and it's getting worse.

Who's going to buy the hundreds of flats 2 bed they are putting up next to Ocean Terminal or Salamander Street?

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There seems to be a lot of people out there still living in the Edinburgh of 2003-2004 and buying before they sell which is madness in the buyers market of today.

Of course this situation isn't helped by the likes of Halifax/Nationwide who's indexes do not reflect the real state of the market, or the usual tripe published in the Scotsman/Sunday which glosses over the current problems with misleading quotes courtesy of local solicitors. It's about the papers faced up to the reality of the situation, things are bad... dire in some areas (Leith for example) and it's getting worse.

Who's going to buy the hundreds of flats 2 bed they are putting up next to Ocean Terminal or Salamander Street?

The prices in Edinburgh are ridiculous, vendors are in cloud cuckoo land.

Soon in the not to distant future it will be better value to buy down South.

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Apollo, I don't think you are right. Maybe not crashing but definitely slowing in Edinburgh.

I the areas that I have been studying: Marchmont, Morningside, Greenbank there are many more properties hanging around than a year ago. Some that have been on for 6 months or more:

http://www.espc.com/EspcPublic/UniversalPa...aspx?rid=186687

http://www.espc.com/EspcPublic/UniversalPa...aspx?rid=167674

I looked at both of these in March and they have gone nowhere!!

Also more properties coming on straight at fixed price and I assume taking offers under the fixed price, I know this as I offered on one 5% under the fixed price which was accepted, we then pulled out after a buildings survey.

So I agree no crash yet but also totally different buying environment to a year ago. If that is a trend then there's only one way it is going to go.

Edited by roblpm

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I lived in Edinburgh up to June and I can assure you there was no sign of what you say.  I sold mine at above asking price at the start of the year.

It's still going strong and my ex-colleague from there has just sold a 2 bed flat at 9500K above guide price. 

I could understand people publishing sob stories from the South, but Edinburgh or Scotland? gimme break  B) joking apart, Scotland is one of the top performing parts of the UK and there is no way it is gonn crash.  I can vouch for that.

Still at it Apollo...?

No sign of what we say...

So there's not hundreds of unsold flats, and the ESPC isn't at a record high of properties unsold?

And we must be imagining all the Fixed Price properties.

And the new builds are flying off the shelves.

Give it a rest even the Scotsman is starting to admit there's a problem now.

I could understand people publishing sob stories from the South, but Edinburgh or Scotland? gimme break  B) joking apart, Scotland is one of the top performing parts of the UK and there is no way it is gonn crash.  I can vouch for that.

So you admit there is a property crash happening in the south... that seems to contradict some of your other posts.

Also Scotland may be a top performer but that certainly isn't the case in Edinburgh and to a lesser extent Glasgow. The countrywide figures are boosted by Aberdeen, Dundee and the feeder towns where people have been forced to buy just to get something affordable (avoiding the excesses of the cities).

Edited by DoubleBubbleTrouble

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Well I sold in edinburgh in June 05, and to be honest took 12 weeks, but buyers are out there and it sold at highest price (nethouseprices), therefore, I can see a build up of property but not a crash, depends on the view point and your place on property ladder, those hoping for a crash and home owners not wanting one....

Just get on with your lifes and enjoying the moment...staying on here and guessing hopes no one...proaction rather than theory based what ifs, buts and maybe's...all this foresight should of been used 3-4 years ago by the same said people calling for a crash

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479k for a three bed mid terraced? With a generous 6 foot wide kitchen? And "small" gardens front and rear? Oh, I forgot about the bedroom4/dining room - does anyone fall for that trick?

I hope this is in a very very prestigious area to justify that sort of "valuation".

If you were to knock at least 120k off that price, you would be lucky to flog this in my relatively leafy and genteel part of North London. Where we have the tube (an underground railway system) that gets us into the third most expensive city in the world in 25 minutes and quite pleasant weather for much of the year.

No Castle though, unless you count Alexandra Palace.

Maybe I'm missing something....

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I'm seeing a gradual rise in the number of 'for sale' boards springing up on flats where I park in the mornings in Leith (shore area). Perhaps they are trying to sell now before the have to compete with all the new builds that are going up just next door. Some of the for sales have been there for quite a few months already - and I've not noticed any change to 'sold'.

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mxs

point is it hasn't sold at £479k yet either.

having lived in various places in London for many years I can tell you the trouble with Edinburgh is too many English people like me moving up here and pushing the prices up!! Give me a 10 minute bus ride into town over 40 minutes standing on the Northern Line any day!! 10 minutes in the car the other way and you're in the hills. Add in good state education for the kids, friendly people and the incoming ban on smoking in pubs and its no wonder its expensive!! And to cap it all I hate hot weather!!

Yours happily in Edinburgh (waiting (I hope not in vain)) for the prices to drop!! and having said that there are many more of these overpriced terraces on ESPC than there were a few weeks ago, the September season seems to be upon us.

Edited by roblpm

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Rob

I'm glad you're happy in Edinburgh, it's horses for courses isn't it? Hopefully these reductions are just the start and you'll be able to pick up a bargain before long.

In case I've unintentionally upset any Scottish people, my comments were only meant as mild leg-pulling, and in any case my wife is Scottish so I wouldn't dare...! For me it's a great place to visit (although being warm blooded I do tend to wait until the summer months) particularly because of the contrasts with living in London.

Oh, and I even got a seat on the Northern Line this morning (it was 6:30 am though!).

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What do you think about the prospects of selling a Stockbridge (upper)colonies flat (recently inherited)? We've put it on at offers-over 210k. Any suggestions on its prospects given its close proximity to the stamp duty threshold? Colonies flats are highly sought after so I'd hope they are still in the rare position of being untouched by the recent 'slowdown'....

http://www.espc.com/EspcPublic/UniversalPa...rchResults.aspx

sad to see it go really :(

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What do you Edinburgh property watchers think of this one?

http://www.espc.com/EspcPublic/UniversalPa...aspx?rid=187737

It has been for sale for at least 6 months now. Then it was offers over £149,000.

My wife likes Edinburgh. Should we go for it at this fixed price? Make a % offer below this? What is a realistic % offer below? Bide our time?

We don't know Edinburgh that well, is this a good area/street?

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What do you Edinburgh property watchers think of this one?

http://www.espc.com/EspcPublic/UniversalPa...aspx?rid=187737

It has been for sale for at least 6 months now.  Then it was offers over £149,000.

My wife likes Edinburgh.  Should we go for it at this fixed price?  Make a % offer below this?  What is a realistic % offer below? Bide our time?

We don't know Edinburgh that well, is this a good area/street?

Pah! talk about small! Someone's spent alot of money doing that place up, but it doesnt hide the fact that it is so small and pokey. Also, don't expect any sunshine with it being in the basement. I'm sure you can do better.

Constitution Street is down in Leith, 'up and coming', but still a fair treck away from town. A bit of a mixed bag really.

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I would say any property that starts with;

"MASSIVELY REDUCED PRICE FOR QUICK SALE"

Is a bad sign...

£165K for a 2 bed ground floor flat without a separate kitchen/living room is very steep. You could get a proper 2 bed in Morningside for that amount at the moment!

I work round the corner from Constitution Street and it's ok but the parking is awful and it's a pretty polluted and noisy street. There's also a couple of pubs on it not sure of their location to that flat.

They are also in the process of building another 100+ two bed BTL boxes right round the corner on Salamander Street on top of the pile of them they've already built at the dock end of Constitution Street, Timberbush, Mitchell Street, Tower Street and the Shore. So be wary there's an increasing amount of oversupply of new build 2 beds in that area and it's getting worse.

This is all just my own opinion of course, for what it's worth.

Edited by DoubleBubbleTrouble

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Many thanks, it is good to get an immediate and local response.

I notice that you monitor the Scottish market generally. What are your thoughts on the Aberdeen Market? There does not appear to be much of a downward trend as yet. Do you know if similar stats to the one you produce for Edinburgh are available?

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Many thanks, it is good to get an immediate and local response.

I notice that you monitor the Scottish market generally.  What are your thoughts on the Aberdeen Market?  There does not appear to be much of a downward trend as yet.  Do you know if similar stats to the one you produce for Edinburgh are available?

I don't know of anyone counting the numbers in Aberdeen, but my dad is looking to buy up there and he reckons it's still holding up (at least in the segment he's looking at).

Aberdeen has always been a law upon itself due to the additional economic driving force of the oil industry. Don't expect it to necessarily track the national HP trajectory very well if the oil companies start to reinvest in North Sea oil in a big way.

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I believe that you are spot on with your comments. Aberdeen has always seemed to be at variance with the national trend. My reason for asking is that there is a similar garden flat to the one in Constitution Street. It is a little larger but the o/o price of £199,000 was recently changed to a fixed price. I doubt whether this is indicative of a falling market, but rather a grossly inflated price in the first place!

I watch Perth as well and have noticed little or no movement there.

There is a flat I have been watching for over 6 months at Spiers Wharf in Glasgow. It has been stuck at offers over £135,000 for the above period, so I wonder if there is any real change going on there?

I also heard on the radio that the Inverness market is still very strong. Apparently there is a shortage of building land which is not helping.

I know it is all anecdotal rather than statistical, but unfortunately not a great deal of movement in the Scottish market, generally, as yet.

I hope that there is going to be an end of year seasonal slowing at the very least, as I would like to buy. However, I would be prepared to hold off if there was any chance that the market was on the turn.

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However, I would be prepared to hold off if there was any chance that the market was on the turn.

Well, regarding Edinburgh, all I can tell you fact wise is that we have the highest number of places up for sale on the ESPC website as well as the highest amount of them being Fixed Price since I began watching the paper/website back in the very early '90's.

I think it's fair to say we have definitely transitioned to a buyers market now, again a situation which hasn't existed for a long time.

Most market watchers always tell you to watch for the build up of oversupply as the first sign of trouble ahead and that's what we're seeing.

Edited by DoubleBubbleTrouble

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Leith is a sh*thole. Full of neds (the scottish equivelent of chavs). It has been "up and coming" since I moved here in 1988. It is still a filthy, violent place, miles from the city centre. Don't walk about at night on your own. House prices there have rocketed over the years. There will be carnage when they plummet back.

Aberdeen is a very very cautious market, there are not that many "incomers" buying houses to push prices up, and Aberdonians just won't spend that much on a house to push inflation up.

You're then grabbing at straws for other parts of Scotland. Nowhere is going to be safe from the crash. You want to make money. Put the cash in a 5% savings account.

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Leith is a sh*thole. Full of neds (the scottish equivelent of chavs). It has been "up and coming" since I moved here in 1988. It is still a filthy, violent place, miles from the city centre. Don't walk about at night on your own. House prices there have rocketed over the years. There will be carnage when they plummet back.

Aberdeen is a very very cautious market, there are not that many "incomers" buying houses to push prices up, and Aberdonians just won't spend that much on a house to push inflation up.

You're then grabbing at straws for other parts of Scotland. Nowhere is going to be safe from the crash. You want to make money. Put the cash in a 5% savings account.

Yep, agree, it could be argued that lots of sh*thole areas in Scotland have rocketed in prices over the years.

Some people have argued that Scotland have not been affected by house price crashes in the past. Not this time though, as you say nowhere is going to be safe from the downward spiral of house prices.

Putting your cash in a 5% savings account might be more prudent. OR investing in gold/silver might give a better return. Dr Blubb has shown some interesting results.

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For those wondering about Aberdeen there were definitely significant price falls there last time round even though "prices never fall in Scotland" - I know, we lived through it. There is an oversupply of property at the moment and yet because of the anticipated September bounce many properties are going on at higher and higher prices. Remember these things:

1. At the peak of the boom, properties were selling for massive amounts over the O/O price and this premium has mostly decreased. Therefore to attain the same selling price, asking prices have to rise

2. Scotland has been exposed to the same economic pressures as the rest of the UK - low IRS, low (now climbing) inflation, debt bubble and rampant HPI, why would we be immune to an HPC? I think we are just a bit further back on the downward swing of the curve. The laws of supply and demand still apply here..

3. The Scots are totally obsessed with house prices. Pick up any Quentin Jardine or Ian Rankin novel from 2000 onwards and neither or them can make it through the book without bleating on about how much money their fictional characters have made in the Edinburgh Property Market. Then go talk to your house owning friends and neighbours - you'll find the majority of them patting themselves on the back because of their sound investment which they reckon is better than any pension scheme and will always rise by inlfation busting amounts each year

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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