Swansea Amongst Most Vulnerable Cities From Job Cuts

[The Masked Tulip]

Newsnight last night talking about Swansea being blitzed re job cuts... BBC News 24 running a story today about how badly Swansea will fair in the coming job cuts... and now BBC Wales running the same story.

I suspect there will be plenty of houses up for auction as repossessed in the coming year.

[gus]

Newsnight last night talking about Swansea being blitzed re job cuts... BBC News 24 running a story today about how badly Swansea will fair in the coming job cuts... and now BBC Wales running the same story.

I suspect there will be plenty of houses up for auction as repossessed in the coming year.

Ties in with an article in the DT yesterday , think it was, confirming that between DVLA , Uni, hospitals etc etc. indeed it is 40% of Swansea's "work" force wrapped up , nice and warm and cosy in the public sector. We know the rest!

Think of all that dreadful collateral damage: adieu Debbie's riding and music lessons..... the shame , bye bye dad's Langland Bay Golf Club membership; he'll be lucky to be pitch and putting on the front. Mum's roots and tan may survive the fiscal carnage but will her sanity survive the move back to Manselton.

Merry Christmas Swansea lawyers; seek high ground and watch the fallout from a distance.

[Daft Boy]

I predict a mass exodus to Cardiff

[gus]

I predict a mass exodus to Cardiff

Will fair a lot better than Swansea in all of this. Swansea is peculiarly parochial.The comments from residents to the DT reporter were staggering in their insularity.

[The Masked Tulip]

I will have to go and google the Telegraph article - didn't see it. Do you have a link?

Ah, here it is:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/8076773/Spending-Review-2010-Swansea-has-grave-concerns-about-the-grim-reapers-cuts.html

Edited October 22, 2010 by The Masked Tulip

[swa]

so what's new, the bbc swansea bashing, isn't that what they always do.

lots of investment resently into wales has all come around swansea bay area.

tata blast furnace, m4 relief road, amazon, coed darcy, sa1, hsbc, backcheck, virgin atlantic, toyota, new bus station, dry docks reopened, cork ferry, institute of life sciences 2, etc and hopefully the margam super pit as well.

funny how they don't mention any of this ?

[gus]

I will have to go and google the Telegraph article - didn't see it. Do you have a link?

Ah, here it is:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/8076773/Spending-Review-2010-Swansea-has-grave-concerns-about-the-grim-reapers-cuts.html

Thanks MT. A few years back dealt with a retired Foreign Office guy up near Aberporth. We shared a passion for birds and he was telling me about a house he was actually building into the cliff face overlooking Cardigan Bay. Only half believed him because I thought planning would be impossible.

Not long ago I saw it advertised with John Francis and on for about 500K but with the most incredible views over the Irish Sea. It reminded me of the places the Germans built in northern France overlooking the Channel: flat roof level with the ground,totally secure and almost invisible from the land side. From the sea side all you'd see would be the sun reflected off the windows.

My point: you'd be safe there when the SHTF and the Abertawe marauders hit the mean streets!

[The Masked Tulip]

I am looking to get out now Gus - have had enough.

Have made some enquiries this week, talking to an IT firm about a role in Sweden - not my cup of tea but we are talking.

The only way to stay in Swansea now is to live here, enjoy the beaches and bring the work in from outside. Otherwise, it will be the 1980s all over again.

I am seeing asking prices in my price range edge up by tens of thousands - i.e. the 320K askinG prices, which should be 250K asking prices, are now going up to 350K when they come new on the market. In other words, going against all the housing data and totally ignoring the spending review. Complete denial.

I got my CV back out online this week - time to get out.

[gus]

I am looking to get out now Gus - have had enough.

Have made some enquiries this week, talking to an IT firm about a role in Sweden - not my cup of tea but we are talking.

The only way to stay in Swansea now is to live here, enjoy the beaches and bring the work in from outside. Otherwise, it will be the 1980s all over again.

I am seeing asking prices in my price range edge up by tens of thousands - i.e. the 320K askinG prices, which should be 250K asking prices, are now going up to 350K when they come new on the market. In other words, going against all the housing data and totally ignoring the spending review. Complete denial.

I got my CV back out online this week - time to get out.

With rates so low, banks loathe to repossess and tacit Govt support , this impasse will drag on for God knows how long. It's going to be a tedious slog for all us impatient price-watchers.

You know Swansea/Gower are OK places to retire but if you still need to make money then get out. And as a single man looking for an intelligent , well-adjusted woman with some class then again, I'd say again,get out.

I'm at the other end of the scale. After 10 years of the chanting mad mullahs, the filth ,corruption and double standards , I'm now desperate to leave Jakarta and in comparison the UK looks relatively attractive . That is until I sit down and think about the place and the gutter society I was so happy to leave behind in 2000 (not to forget the ex!!!!). 10 years later I'm in no doubt that the trough has deepened and that a return would rapidly leave me more disillusioned and depressed than before.

I like the sound of Argentina !

[Geek Man]

I am looking to get out now Gus - have had enough.

Have made some enquiries this week, talking to an IT firm about a role in Sweden - not my cup of tea but we are talking.

The only way to stay in Swansea now is to live here, enjoy the beaches and bring the work in from outside. Otherwise, it will be the 1980s all over again.

I am seeing asking prices in my price range edge up by tens of thousands - i.e. the 320K asking prices, which should be 250K asking prices, are now going up to 350K when they come new on the market. In other words, going against all the housing data and totally ignoring the spending review. Complete denial.

I got my CV back out online this week - time to get out.

MT, I sympathize, I really do. I grew up near Bishopston but left 20 years ago. I recall that back then a detached Gower bungalow would set you back £70K and terrace in Sketty or Bynmill about half that. Graduate starting salaries in the oil industry in London were £14K (I stuck it at BP for a few months, then did a phd) which I think was close to the average Swansea salary. After 20 years, local salaries are at best 1.5x 1990 levels, whereas house prices are 5x higher. The tax take is much higher now.

Due to family and friends I go back to Swansea from time to time, but as far as possible I try and meet up on the continent. Some place where the scenery and the weather are more conducive to good times, and where you can rent a better house for half the cost of a Gower Holiday cottage. Places like Brittany or the Swiss Alps that are still much better value, despite the pummeling that sterling has suffered.

My mates who did not buy before the boom have since either left the area, or are still renting in their forties. The ones who were lucky enough to buy before the boom can't afford to move now that they have families because the rungs on the ladder moved so far apart. It's that simple. None has bought or moved in the last 10 years. There was no ladder.

There must be ten thousand or more houses in Swansea and Gower that an estate agent would value at over the magic £250 threshold, yet the local job market is such that only a few hundred earn enough to raise a deposit and service that kind of debt - and these are mostly in the public sector. £250K+ houses are either not selling, or changing hands between these landed boomers, perpetuating a delusion. This is not just any old bubble, this is a bubble that has detached itself from reality and is now drifting above 95% of the local population. Something has to give. But when it does, might Swansea go back to being the crime afflicted city it was in the 80's and early 90's? What happens when they turn the benefits tap off and the public sector gravy train stops? Same city. Same divisions.

A friend in Cardiff recently employed a 23 year old from Swansea West. This young chap mentioned that he was the only person he knew with a job. He's flatting with 4 guys on housing benefit who wonder why he bothers to work. Meanwhile all but a few of my mates in Swansea/Gower who have jobs work for the public sector. University, Schools, NHS, County Hall, Welsh Assembly. I'm thinking of 45 out of 50 people here so when I read that 40% of people in Swansea overall work for the public sector, I suspect it to be much higher in Swansea West.

Swansea. A town where you need to take a taxi from the bus station to get to the train station. Where else would you turn one of your finest civic buildings into a curry house and call it the Patti Raj (if you are going to do that, at least have the wit to call it the Cha-Cha-Cha-Patti)..and then there is soul-less SA1 and that stupid tower - what's all that about?This phallus surely ranks (sic) alongside the follies of Dubai in defining malinvestment at the peak of a credit boom.

I travel very widely and I can see that this is a profoundly dysfunctional and deeply delusional part of the world. The property market is the least justified I have come across bar none. MT, you seem to recognize perfectly what is amiss, but your posts read like the witterings of the me that never left. Get the hell out man.

Edited October 25, 2010 by Geek Man

[The Masked Tulip]

MT, I sympathize, I really do. I grew up near Bishopston but left 20 years ago. I recall that back then a detached Gower bungalow would set you back £70K and terrace in Sketty or Bynmill about half that. Graduate starting salaries in the oil industry in London were £14K (I stuck it at BP for a few months, then did a phd) which I think was close to the average Swansea salary. After 20 years, local salaries are at best 1.5x 1990 levels, whereas house prices are 5x higher. The tax take is much higher now.

Due to family and friends I go back to Swansea from time to time, but as far as possible I try and meet up on the continent. Some place where the scenery and the weather are more conducive to good times, and where you can rent a better house for half the cost of a Gower Holiday cottage. Places like Brittany or the Swiss Alps that are still much better value, despite the pummeling that sterling has suffered.

My mates who did not buy before the boom have since either left the area, or are still renting in their forties. The ones who were lucky enough to buy before the boom can't afford to move now that they have families because the rungs on the ladder moved so far apart. It's that simple. None has bought or moved in the last 10 years. There was no ladder.

There must be ten thousand or more houses in Swansea and Gower that an estate agent would value at over the magic £250 threshold, yet the local job market is such that only a few hundred earn enough to raise a deposit and service that kind of debt - and these are mostly in the public sector. £250K+ houses are either not selling, or changing hands between these landed boomers, perpetuating a delusion. This is not just any old bubble, this is a bubble that has detached itself from reality and is now drifting above 95% of the local population. Something has to give. But when it does, might Swansea go back to being the crime afflicted city it was in the 80's and early 90's? What happens when they turn the benefits tap off and the public sector gravy train stops? Same city. Same divisions.

A friend in Cardiff recently employed a 23 year old from Swansea West. This young chap mentioned that he was the only person he knew with a job. He's flatting with 4 guys on housing benefit who wonder why he bothers to work. Meanwhile all but a few of my mates in Swansea/Gower who have jobs work for the public sector. University, Schools, NHS, County Hall, Welsh Assembly. I'm thinking of 45 out of 50 people here so when I read that 40% of people in Swansea overall work for the public sector, I suspect it to be much higher in Swansea West.

Swansea. A town where you need to take a taxi from the bus station to get to the train station. Where else would you turn one of your finest civic buildings into a curry house and call it the Patti Raj (if you are going to do that, at least have the wit to call it the Cha-Cha-Cha-Patti)..and then there is soul-less SA1 and that stupid tower - what's all that about?This phallus surely ranks (sic) alongside the follies of Dubai in defining malinvestment at the peak of a credit boom.

I travel very widely and I can see that this is a profoundly dysfunctional and deeply delusional part of the world. The property market is the least justified I have come across bar none. MT, you seem to recognize perfectly what is amiss, but your posts read like the witterings of the me that never left. Get the hell out man.

I think that is one of the best posts I have read about Swansea on this forum or any other. I can't disagree with any of it - even the last paragraph.

In the past 72 hours I have changed tact completely and have begun to put out feelers to old contacts in the US and on the Continent re work. For personal, family and health reasons I had to seek sanctuary here in recent years but that is no longer the case.

Thanks for posting - spot on.

[gus]

MT, I sympathize, I really do. I grew up near Bishopston but left 20 years ago. I recall that back then a detached Gower bungalow would set you back £70K and terrace in Sketty or Bynmill about half that. Graduate starting salaries in the oil industry in London were £14K (I stuck it at BP for a few months, then did a phd) which I think was close to the average Swansea salary. After 20 years, local salaries are at best 1.5x 1990 levels, whereas house prices are 5x higher. The tax take is much higher now.

Due to family and friends I go back to Swansea from time to time, but as far as possible I try and meet up on the continent. Some place where the scenery and the weather are more conducive to good times, and where you can rent a better house for half the cost of a Gower Holiday cottage. Places like Brittany or the Swiss Alps that are still much better value, despite the pummeling that sterling has suffered.

My mates who did not buy before the boom have since either left the area, or are still renting in their forties. The ones who were lucky enough to buy before the boom can't afford to move now that they have families because the rungs on the ladder moved so far apart. It's that simple. None has bought or moved in the last 10 years. There was no ladder.

There must be ten thousand or more houses in Swansea and Gower that an estate agent would value at over the magic £250 threshold, yet the local job market is such that only a few hundred earn enough to raise a deposit and service that kind of debt - and these are mostly in the public sector. £250K+ houses are either not selling, or changing hands between these landed boomers, perpetuating a delusion. This is not just any old bubble, this is a bubble that has detached itself from reality and is now drifting above 95% of the local population. Something has to give. But when it does, might Swansea go back to being the crime afflicted city it was in the 80's and early 90's? What happens when they turn the benefits tap off and the public sector gravy train stops? Same city. Same divisions.

A friend in Cardiff recently employed a 23 year old from Swansea West. This young chap mentioned that he was the only person he knew with a job. He's flatting with 4 guys on housing benefit who wonder why he bothers to work. Meanwhile all but a few of my mates in Swansea/Gower who have jobs work for the public sector. University, Schools, NHS, County Hall, Welsh Assembly. I'm thinking of 45 out of 50 people here so when I read that 40% of people in Swansea overall work for the public sector, I suspect it to be much higher in Swansea West.

Swansea. A town where you need to take a taxi from the bus station to get to the train station. Where else would you turn one of your finest civic buildings into a curry house and call it the Patti Raj (if you are going to do that, at least have the wit to call it the Cha-Cha-Cha-Patti)..and then there is soul-less SA1 and that stupid tower - what's all that about?This phallus surely ranks (sic) alongside the follies of Dubai in defining malinvestment at the peak of a credit boom.

I travel very widely and I can see that this is a profoundly dysfunctional and deeply delusional part of the world. The property market is the least justified I have come across bar none. MT, you seem to recognize perfectly what is amiss, but your posts read like the witterings of the me that never left. Get the hell out man.

One good post and Swansea to a "tee". What is it about this town that engenders so much love and so much loathing?

[The Masked Tulip]

One good post and Swansea to a "tee". What is it about this town that engenders so much love and so much loathing?

I think whatever Dylan got the rest of us got as well.

[Penny For Your Thoughts]

Spending cuts will slash house prices in these towns

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/27102010/389/spending-cuts-slash-house-prices-towns.html

[Democorruptcy]

I think that is one of the best posts I have read about Swansea on this forum or any other. I can't disagree with any of it - even the last paragraph.

In the past 72 hours I have changed tact completely and have begun to put out feelers to old contacts in the US and on the Continent re work. For personal, family and health reasons I had to seek sanctuary here in recent years but that is no longer the case.

Thanks for posting - spot on.

The problem is that in the UK those that did the looting have kept their bags of swag. In such as Ireland their public sector have had pay cuts. We have reduced interest rates, QE and a devalued currency so everyone is paying to keep those salaries inflated.

As to Wales being worse affected due to cuts, I look at it the other way. Even after any cuts they will still have more public sector so more people with money. The cuts won't be at the top end of the salary scale the bosses will sacrifice those at the bottom. Won't that protect the values of mid to higher end properties?

[macdo]

The problem is that in the UK those that did the looting have kept their bags of swag. In such as Ireland their public sector have had pay cuts. We have reduced interest rates, QE and a devalued currency so everyone is paying to keep those salaries inflated.

As to Wales being worse affected due to cuts, I look at it the other way. Even after any cuts they will still have more public sector so more people with money. The cuts won't be at the top end of the salary scale the bosses will sacrifice those at the bottom. Won't that protect the values of mid to higher end properties?

Guys and Gals, you really do talk yourself into the dodrums on this Swansea thread. It really is no worse here than anywhere else. Howso? I hear you say. Right, I've been coming here regularly for 25 years and have lived in the green and sandy part of SA3 for 10 years. I came here from London and Via the boomtown years of Aberdeen, so inflated house prices are in my blood. And YES West Swansea and Gower prices are well inflated as they always have been and always will be. All that has ever happened is there are drops then recoveries in the countrywide market and SA£ will suffer that this time. But the fact still remains that there are limited houses available in the green and sandy parts of Swansea and when there is an upturn (as inevitably there will be Footsie up to 5757 today) there will be no shortage of monied folk ready to by our houses again.

What happens in the rest of Swansea viz a vis government jobs is totally irrelavant to SA3 house prices in the long term, since from my experience of living here, those folk will never buy a house here anyway. My neighbours are either English, Non UK or Welsh families from eons back. Having viewed this HPC Welsh thread irregularly for the last 3 years, there has been a long running prediction of meltdown in SA£, but it has never happened and never will because iSA£ has location,location,location written all over it!

Now if my investments were in Cockett or the brownfield sites of Llanelli, that might be another tale....

all the best

[The Masked Tulip]

Guys and Gals, you really do talk yourself into the dodrums on this Swansea thread. It really is no worse here than anywhere else. Howso? I hear you say. Right, I've been coming here regularly for 25 years and have lived in the green and sandy part of SA3 for 10 years. I came here from London and Via the boomtown years of Aberdeen, so inflated house prices are in my blood. And YES West Swansea and Gower prices are well inflated as they always have been and always will be. All that has ever happened is there are drops then recoveries in the countrywide market and SA£ will suffer that this time. But the fact still remains that there are limited houses available in the green and sandy parts of Swansea and when there is an upturn (as inevitably there will be Footsie up to 5757 today) there will be no shortage of monied folk ready to by our houses again.

What happens in the rest of Swansea viz a vis government jobs is totally irrelavant to SA3 house prices in the long term, since from my experience of living here, those folk will never buy a house here anyway. My neighbours are either English, Non UK or Welsh families from eons back. Having viewed this HPC Welsh thread irregularly for the last 3 years, there has been a long running prediction of meltdown in SA£, but it has never happened and never will because iSA£ has location,location,location written all over it!

Now if my investments were in Cockett or the brownfield sites of Llanelli, that might be another tale....

all the best

If you had been coming to Swansea for 25 years you should remember the 1980s in Swansea. I can remember someone paying 700K for a Langland house in 1990 and 2 years later they got 300K for it. That is but one of many stories I can tell you about S'sea and the last crash.

Yes, plenty of people retire here, plenty return from working away but to try and suggest that Swansea West is made up mostly of these people is just ludicrous IMPO.

You seem to ignore the fact that most of those SA3 types are actually people working in middle to senior management type jobs in the Council, DVLA, etc - the vast majority are.

What a hilarious first post. Good try.