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Is Something About To Blow Up Big Time?

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Here's me turning into a bona fide cgnao.

I've been having this growing sense of dread over the past couple of weeks (maybe I need to stock up on Prozac) and here's someone else writing about serious trouble ahead. I get the sense something's about to hit the fan sooner than we think.

From FT Alphaville:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/10/21/378726/and-now-for-something-extremely-bearish/

And the full John Taylor note here:

http://www.fx-concepts.com/private_client/attachments/9232477.pdf

And now for something extremely bearish…

Posted by Neil Hume on Oct 21 15:23. … from John Taylor, the chairman of FX Concepts, one of the world’s biggest currency hedge funds.

Some of this stuff would make even Albert Edwards blanch, but given Taylor’s track record, he’s more than qualified to pontificate on the FX market.

Selected highlights from Taylor’s Market Insight Report for October.

After the Phoney War, Things Really Got Nasty
Not too many traders remember ‘the phoney war,’ or the Sitzkrieg, as it happened 71 years ago. After Hitler invaded Poland on the first day of September 1939, Poland’s European allies France and England declared war on Germany, but nothing significant happened on that front until the following May when the German Army rolled through Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and Belgium and into France. Although the horror started in Poland in the fall of 1939, for a few months, the rest of Europe was spared that horror, which eventually lasted through the next five years. Strangely, this past September (2010), the US equity market rose by about 8.8%, its best return for that month, since that same September (1939). To me the parallels are ominous. What were those people thinking back in 1939? Could a coming world war have that positive an impact on the economy and on markets? They must have been crazy – of course equities gave up their gains and were cratered in May 1940 when Germany invaded the west. But, what are we thinking of now? A war has just begun.
Didn’t Bernanke and the Fed announce in late August at Jackson Hole (and multiple times since then) that the US was going to enter QE2 and debase its currency setting off a currency war. Bernanke, like Hitler seven decades ago, had been warning everyone who would listen for years. On November 21, 2002 he said that he would debase the US dollar if the American economy looked as though it would go through the same lost decades that the Japanese have recently endured. Now, it is clear that he has been true to his word and the currency war has begun.

….

Capital controls are likely to spring up in Asia and in other attractive economies during the next few months, but the really destructive war begins when tariffs appear. This should happen next year – maybe in May, mirroring 1940 – because by then the next recession should be in full force in both the US and in Europe, forcing many millions more out of work. The political pressure for raising tariffs in the US is intensifying and the new Tea Party supported Congressman will help tip the political scales in that direction. This war will not be fought for territory, but for markets and wealth, and when tariff walls are raised the destruction of livelihoods and property will be almost as dramatic as in the old fashioned shooting wars.

Pass the tin hat, please.

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$1374

I also sense the airship-sized turd is fast approaching the fan.

Sovereign debt issues in the EZ too easily "resolved." Sterling totally ignoring our chronic debt and massive job losses ahead. China slowing. Stock markets flying high despite forward fundamentals looking awful as double dip locks in. House prices gathering the big "mo" to the downside both sides of the pond.

Can't see anything looking good other than the dream world indices.

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So you don't think it's contained then?

Nothing bad will happen we have the world's greatest experts in charge.

Yeah!!!

Let's all save the world - and make some "investments" in PWOPERDEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Let's all take out LOADSA

LIAR LOANS

:P:P:P

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$1374

I also sense the airship-sized turd is fast approaching the fan.

Sovereign debt issues in the EZ too easily "resolved." Sterling totally ignoring our chronic debt and massive job losses ahead. China slowing. Stock markets flying high despite forward fundamentals looking awful as double dip locks in. House prices gathering the big "mo" to the downside both sides of the pond.

Can't see anything looking good other than the dream world indices.

Can you check your source on the gold price, or is that a prediction? I make todays peak $1347.

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China have a choice.

If they refuse to exercise it they'll be forced to do so, one way or another.

As the OP was alluding to, appeasement doesn't work.

It's now us or China - my preferred choice is us.

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We've expected this for years and not a jot.

I'll believe it wen I see it.

Well not everyone, some we have been almost as bullish as Sibley at an Estate agents convention for alot of the last 18 months

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka

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My prediction, and I keep making it, is that the SHTF moment that we're facing is the Lib Dems leaving the coalition and forcing a general election.

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Hummm ... not sure.

To my mind, the situation we are currently in parallels the period before the first world war, rather than the second. The level of capital and labour flows internationally, ie. the capacity for contagion, are more Edwardian than anything else.

I can see a strange parallel in that our conflicts will be market and wealth-based "empires" but that the play-out will weirdly resemble the destruction of the geographical empires of the nineteeth century.

It is very uncanny, you know, the parallels between now and 1910 to 1914. Very uncanny. :unsure:

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My prediction, and I keep making it, is that the SHTF moment that we're facing is the Lib Dems

No chance. This is their only way of being in power - particularly now as voters will see them as Tories - and they still want the electoral reform. There's no budging them now.

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Lib Dems won't leave until after referendum on voting reform. The way things are going I am not sure they are going to get the result they want or expect.

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The G20 is what is about to blow up.

But I am sure it will end up with a non descript communique and a nice photo.

GYEONGJU, South Korea (AP) — Global finance mandarins get another chance this week to defuse international currency tensions as a festering dispute over exchange rates overshadows debate about reforming the world economy.

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Hmmm...... This should be good.... :rolleyes:

Inside Job is a 2010 feature-length documentary film about the financial crisis of 2007-2010 directed by Charles H. Ferguson. The film was screened at the Cannes Film Festival in May 2010[1] and it [was] will be released by Sony Pictures Classics in October 2010.

'Inside Job' is the first film to provide a comprehensive analysis of the global financial crisis of 2008, which at a cost over $20 trillion, caused millions of people to lose their jobs and homes in the worst recession since the Great Depression, and nearly resulted in a global financial collapse. Through exhaustive research and extensive interviews with key financial insiders, politicians, journalists, and academics, the film traces the rise of a rogue industry which has corrupted politics, regulation, and academia. It was made on location in the United States, Iceland, England, France, Singapore, and China

http://www.sonyclassics.com/insidejob/dates.html

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Can you check your source on the gold price, or is that a prediction? I make todays peak $1347.

It was a number plucked out of the sky (a week or more ago was it?) as representing the top in gold before the next Big correction. Time will tell if it was quite close or a long way off the mark. Hard to predict in this madhouse market where good is bad and bad is good. Must have been something Brown staerted with his debt is good approach to economics.

Its odd that there was no bounce today as most goldbugs see a drop as a buying opportunity.

GOLD

10/21/2010

13:12

1324.10

1325.10

-22.00

-1.63%

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Gold-Drops-After-Geithner-bloomberg-767753105.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=

Gold Drops After Geithner Says Currencies `In Alignment,' Boosting Dollar
.
Wendy Pugh, On Thursday October 21, 2010, 2:10 am EDT
Gold declined after U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said that the major currencies are “roughly in alignment,” boosting the dollar and curbing demand for the precious metal as a haven.
Edited by Realistbear

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It was a number plucked out of the sky (a week or more ago was it?) as representing the top in gold before the next Big correction. Time will tell if it was quite close or a long way off the mark. Hard to predict in this madhouse market where good is bad and bad is good. Must have been something Brown staerted with his debt is good approach to economics.

Its odd that there was no bounce today as most goldbugs see a drop as a buying opportunity.

GOLD

10/21/2010

13:12

1324.10

1325.10

-22.00

-1.63%

http://finance.yahoo...7&asset=&ccode=

Gold Drops After Geithner Says Currencies `In Alignment,' Boosting Dollar
.
Wendy Pugh, On Thursday October 21, 2010, 2:10 am EDT
Gold declined after U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said that the major currencies are "roughly in alignment," boosting the dollar and curbing demand for the precious metal as a haven.

Little Timmy is meaning the major currencies Dollar, Euro, Yen maybe GBP are fair value against each other he does not include the Yuan quite clearly in that statement as it is not a major traded currency.

Speculators sold gold investors bought more.

Did you think Timmy meant the Yuan?

D'oh.

Edited by gravity always wins

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Tariffs are a given. Or at least a less-free 'free market'. ;)

Neo-liberal policies have failed and trade policies need to be sensibly re-thought and ideological barriers to more controlled global trade dropped. Either that or we can wait for a dollar meltdown, emergency tariffs and a bloody great big war shortly after.

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Tariffs are a given. Or at least a less-free 'free market'. ;)

Neo-liberal policies have failed and trade policies need to be sensibly re-thought and ideological barriers to more controlled global trade dropped. Either that or we can wait for a dollar meltdown, emergency tariffs and a bloody great big war shortly after.

That'll be the latter then.;)

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Gold having a decent correction. Excellent!

Could fall to $1190 (roughly) and still be well within trend.

Edited by Errol

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Gold having a decent correction. Excellent!

Could fall to $1190 (roughly) and still be well within trend.

Pity sterling has fallen by a corresponding amount so there is no benefit to us in GBP/Gold terms

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Lib Dems won't leave until after referendum on voting reform. The way things are going I am not sure they are going to get the result they want or expect.

Libdem will be the falls guys for all the crappy policies

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_W_ you have just open my eyes. Since Poland joined Euro Zone, factories are being taken over by giant EU cartels (Bayer, IKB, Sudzuker etc, even Travel Agents!!!). Most of them are German based bussinesses. Only phew "big" companies still belong to Pols now. On the other side big deal has been done with Russia. Polish PM has just sign 27 year contract with Gazprom, who is the biggest energy/gas supplier to the EU. This "new deal" has been done quietly, behind the closed dors and details of it just start to sink through, i.e: 1. For the next 27 years Gazprom will charge Poland about 30% more than rest of the EU coutries.:unsure: 2.Poland can not resell any surplus of gas, neither can import energy from another country.:huh: 3. Gazprom will not be charged for transiting gas to the EU, through Poland theritory (even though pipeline has been build and is maintenance by them) :blink:. It looks like they did it again. Like in 1939, Germans (EU) and Russians torn the country apart. With tanks back then and with "economic/political" tricks now. Worth to say is, that German industrial giants benefit from emigration. Pols can not find job at home and have to emigrate to "Fatherland" (i.e. there are 3 mayor power plant construction sites in Germany/Holland and all 3 are running by Pols (enginners, welders, you name it). Germans are simply too stupid and too expensive to do the job! Funny though, 96 very influential people in Poland knew what is going on. I think they were ready to open their mouth and shake the nation. I am sure they were also ready to die for it. And on 10 April 2010 they did. Bussiness as usual. :ph34r:

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  • 145 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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