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exiges

Retail Sales Down

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Previous month: -0.7%

Expected: +0.4%

Actual: -0.2%

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=256

Year on year, the volume of retail sales in September was 0.5 per cent higher than in September 2009. Predominantly food stores decreased by 2.3 per cent while predominantly non-food stores increased by 3.8 per cent. Within predominantly non-food stores there were rises across all sectors, apart from household goods stores which decreased by 2.0 per cent. The largest rise was non-specialised stores at 8.4 per cent. Non-store retailing increased by 13.5 per cent.

Between August and September total sales volume decreased by 0.2 per cent. Predominantly food and non-food stores both increased by 0.1 per cent. Within predominantly non-food stores there were rises across all sectors apart from textile, clothing and footwear stores which fell by 0.8 per cent. The largest rise was other stores at 0.7 per cent. Non-store retailing decreased by 0.5 per cent.

Sales volume in the three months July to September increased by 1.0 per cent, compared to the previous three months. Predominantly food stores decreased by 1.1 per cent while predominantly non-food stores increased by 2.3 per cent. There were rises across all sectors apart from household goods stores which decreased by 0.1 per cent. The largest rise was other stores at 6.1 per cent, driven by other retail sales not elsewhere classified and sports equipment, games and toys. This was the largest three month on three month rise for other stores since March 2008 when it was also 6.1 per cent. Non-store retailing increased by 7.3 per cent, the largest since December 2008 when it was 7.7 per cent.

Total sales volume in the three months to September was 0.9 per cent higher than the same period a year ago. Predominantly food stores decreased by 2.1 per cent while predominantly non-food stores increased by 4.3 per cent. Within predominantly non-food stores there were rises across all sectors apart from household goods stores which decreased by 1.4 per cent. The largest rise was non-specialised stores at 8.6 per cent. Non-store retailing increased by 15.3 per cent.

The seasonally adjusted value of retail sales for September 2010 was 2.4 per cent higher than in September 2009. For the three months to September 2010, it was 2.7 per cent higher than the same period a year earlier

Edited by exiges

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Errr, I'm a little confused:

"The seasonally adjusted value of retail sales for September 2010 was 2.4 per cent higher than in September 2009."

I don't think we can read too much into one months figures. But it will be no surprise if retail figures now mirror the fallback in the exporting economy which roared in the post christmas mini brown printed and paid for pre-election period, but is now slowing dramatically. The debts have not been paid for and even worse they are still piling up - £16 billion last month alone. The national debt has now reached A TRILLION POUNDS for the first time.

The winter of discontent is about to arrive. So I expect downturn for real before recovery for real in about 2.5 years time. Meanwhile the HPC is on.

Edited by plummet expert

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Errr, I'm a little confused:

"The seasonally adjusted value of retail sales for September 2010 was 2.4 per cent higher than in September 2009."

There are 2 sets of figures, value and volume.

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From the OP's link:

Retail sales volume is the total takings adjusted for inflation and the value of retail sales is the total actual takings.

They don't mention which deflator was used: CPI? RPI? GDP Deflator? And then this last bit:

The seasonally adjusted value of retail sales for September 2010 was 2.4 per cent higher than in September 2009. For the three months to September 2010, it was 2.7 per cent higher than the same period a year earlier

...implies an purely nominal (inflation-unadjusted) "growth" of 2.4% YoY. In other words, quite a large real decrease, surely?

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-21/september-retail-sales-unexpectedly-drop-for-second-month-on-budget-fears.html

U.K. Retail Sales
Unexpectedly
Drop for Second Month
By Scott Hamilton - Oct 21, 2010 11:36 AM
U.K.
retail sales unexpectedly dropped
in September for a second month and mortgage approvals fell to the lowest in 1 1/2 years as consumers braced for the deepest budget squeeze since World War II.

Its an "unexpected" recovereh.

Why would anyone think retail sales would do otherwise given the bad news everywhere? :blink:

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