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Realistbear

Has The Run On The Pound Begun?

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1 GBP

$1.57453

Euro 1.12716

Not much in the news about this and it went up after the cuts were announced as if the economy would miracuously be unaffected by the loss of one half a million jobs (plus nock-on effect among companies that supply the government).

IMO, Sterling will sink back down below 1.50 again over the course of the next few weeks as our debt situation is still worsening and the job losses are going to be felt in demand at the factory gates sending those figures down and pre-Christmas sentiment is going to be bleak. As for houses...... :o

I am off to get my holiday Euros today and wished I hadn't delayed.

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http://www.xe.com/

1 GBP

$1.57453

Euro 1.12716

Not much in the news about this and it went up after the cuts were announced as if the economy would miracuously be unaffected by the loss of one half a million jobs (plus nock-on effect among companies that supply the government).

IMO, Sterling will sink back down below 1.50 again over the course of the next few weeks as our debt situation is still worsening and the job losses are going to be felt in demand at the factory gates sending those figures down and pre-Christmas sentiment is going to be bleak. As for houses...... :o

I am off to get my holiday Euros today and wished I hadn't delayed.

For crying out loud. What is it with you and minor market movements?

The pound is currently giving back yesterday's gains. When it moved 150 points after Osbourne's speech I don't recall you writing to say that we were headed to the moon.

GBPUSD is currently range bound - we'd need to see a breach of that range before making any assessment.

GBPEUR has been selling off since early September

GBPJPY has been ranging between 13700 and 12700 for about the last six month - though it is currently testing lows.

Any assumptions about GBP has to be relative to the other currencies in the pair under discussion. Where do you think the next crisis is more likely - US, Japan, EU or GB? There were no surprises in the Spending Review.

Do you trade forex for a living?

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For crying out loud. What is it with you and minor market movements?

The pound is currently giving back yesterday's gains. When it moved 150 points after Osbourne's speech I don't recall you writing to say that we were headed to the moon.

GBPUSD is currently range bound - we'd need to see a breach of that range before making any assessment.

GBPEUR has been selling off since early September

GBPJPY has been ranging between 13700 and 12700 for about the last six month - though it is currently testing lows.

Any assumptions about GBP has to be relative to the other currencies in the pair under discussion. Where do you think the next crisis is more likely - US, Japan, EU or GB? There were no surprises in the Spending Review.

Do you trade forex for a living?

"When considering whether or not to invest, it is wise to bear in mind that minor price moves may be a precursor to something far larger about to happen."

I am aftaid I have to agree. :(

CABLE is my only concern and I do have a lot placed on a bet that the $ will rise vs. the £. I sold £ at around 2.05 and hope to buy back in sub-1.50.

Next crisis: its us. Then the Euro will get hit again.

Edited by Realistbear

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Not much in the news about this and it went up after the cuts were announced as if the economy would miracuously be unaffected by the loss of one half a million jobs (plus nock-on effect among companies that supply the government).

The cuts aren't the issue, they're expected and welcomed.

The increasing talks of QE2, with King + Posen talking in the last 24 hours about it.. That's what's pissing on the markets chips.

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"When considering whether or not to invest, it is wise to bear in mind that minor price moves may be a precursor to something far larger about to happen."

I am aftaid I have to agree. :(

So GBP is a Realistbear sell recommendation then....any recommendations on pair, entry and stop?

By the way, given your obsession with minor market movements, I'd like to point out that GBPUSD was trading in the 15730s at 8:45, but since your bearish posting is now testing 15800, an impressive 70 pip movement in less than half an hour! Are you secretly running some sort of contrarian indicator? :P

Edited for spelling and clarity

Edited by FaFa!

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CABLE is my only concern and I do have a lot placed on a bet that the $ will rise vs. the £. I sold £ at around 2.05 and hope to buy back in sub-1.50.

So I take it you sold in Nov 2007? (Congrats on selling at the peak)

If you were targetting sub 1.50 why didn't you take your profits between Nov 2008 and May 2009? Or March, May to July this year?

Edited by FaFa!

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So GBP is a Realistbear sell recommendation then....any recommendations on pair, entry and stop?

By the way, given your obsession with minor market movements, I'd like to point out that GBPUSD was trading in the 15730s at 8:45, but since your bearish posting is now testing 15800, an impressive 70 pip movement in less than half an hour! Are you secretly running some sort of contrarian indicator? :P

Edited for spelling and clarity

Intraday is key. Big news just out: Osborne gives green light to Merv to print. FOREX boys got this ahead of the release and as you know, a few pips can be a huge amount when you are momentum trading. Every cent it moves in my case is heavy bread. Back up from lows now after computers kciked in to buy the dips--it will take some big fundamentals to move the Pound from its perch. When there is a big shift it will start somewhere and that is the key to the game: when is somewhere?

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So I take it you sold in Nov 2007? (Congrats on selling at the peak)

If you were targetting sub 1.50 why didn't you take your profits between Nov 2008 and May 2009? Or March, May to July this year?

I sold in 1991 when I relocated to the US. A few days ahead of the Soros hit.

My bank lost the wire when I was going to trade at around 1.47 and it took weeks to recall. Could have sued the stupid fools but didn't. It soared after that abnd hasn't really looked back despite the awful fundatmetals in the UK.

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Sooner or later Obama has to realise that he too is running a huge defecit due to irresponsible spending in trying to boost the economy.

Either he will realise this in before disaster strikes (like us) or afterwards (like the greeks). The only difference will be that nobody will be able to bail the americans out. In that scenario the dollar will plunge.

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The cuts aren't the issue, they're expected and welcomed.

The increasing talks of QE2, with King + Posen talking in the last 24 hours about it.. That's what's pissing on the markets chips.

Exactly. Its been very obvious, although scantly reported, that the BOE (KIng in particular) has been using the media to depress the £ since the crisis took hold.

QE is now his favoured threat for this.

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Weak pound is bad for HPC as Europeans will buy more currency to buy homes.

Yep. I have lost track of the number of Germans looking to buy flats in Dundee because the pound is so 'cheap'.......:rolleyes:

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Sooner or later Obama has to realise that he too is running a huge defecit due to irresponsible spending in trying to boost the economy.

Either he will realise this in before disaster strikes (like us) or afterwards (like the greeks). The only difference will be that nobody will be able to bail the americans out. In that scenario the dollar will plunge.

The US buys a lot of stuff from China, Europe and the UK. When the dollar drops they buy less and we sell less.

The US is our single largest customer and the loss of that trade would not be good. The US have built China as nearly everything you see in US shops is made in that country. As you start to look around our shops you see a similar scenario.

If the US ever needs bailing out we will have preceded them by a few years. The EZ also.

Edited by Realistbear

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For crying out loud. What is it with you and minor market movements?

The pound is currently giving back yesterday's gains. When it moved 150 points after Osbourne's speech I don't recall you writing to say that we were headed to the moon.

GBPUSD is currently range bound - we'd need to see a breach of that range before making any assessment.

GBPEUR has been selling off since early September

GBPJPY has been ranging between 13700 and 12700 for about the last six month - though it is currently testing lows.

Any assumptions about GBP has to be relative to the other currencies in the pair under discussion. Where do you think the next crisis is more likely - US, Japan, EU or GB? There were no surprises in the Spending Review.

Do you trade forex for a living?

Yeah, but some of us like to talk through our currency gambles, it's 'big bread' for some of us, the difference between buying with a mortgage and just buying.

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So I take it you sold in Nov 2007? (Congrats on selling at the peak)

If you were targetting sub 1.50 why didn't you take your profits between Nov 2008 and May 2009? Or March, May to July this year?

I did. Yay me.

If it's volatility you want, you can't go too far wrong with gbpaud.

Ab

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Yeah, but some of us like to talk through our currency gambles, it's 'big bread' for some of us, the difference between buying with a mortgage and just buying.

That is where I am at. Waiting to buy without a mortgage. Sterling at sub 1.40 would do that for me.

When I first got on this site (2005) I was looking forward to a double hit when returning from the US: low pound and a mega HPC.

The pound was 2.13 back then and has since dropped to 1.37 momentarily. Now its rangebound in the high 1.50s. Houses are probably down about 15% from peak around here. Need houses down at least 30% from peak (this area is as resiient as anywhere due to high level of retired folks) and Sterling under 1.50 and then I am good to go. :D

However, greed can set in and when the £ hit 1.35 I was unable to take advantage due to $ tied up. Now they are sitting in a UK $ account waiting for a click of the mouse.

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Sterling would have fallen further if all the other major economies were not in similarly bad shape. The US, unemployment, low growth, 1.3trn deficit, Eurozone massive imbalances, huge public debt in the periphery with recession and high unemployment. The euro will probably cease to exist within a decade. Japan, slow growth, strong yen, deflation, QE etc.

The real run on Sterling started in late 2007 and has been going on ever since.

Osbourne and King will be happy as they know we have to grow our manufacturing and try and get growth from our trade balance.

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Weak pound is bad for HPC as Europeans will buy more currency to buy homes.

Morning,

I am a "European". I have lived in the UK for about 10yrs not because I like it but because I earn good money over here. Now I am stuck here with 2 kids but even my English wife has been hassling me for years to leave the UK and go live elsewhere. Who do you think in Europe would be interested in buying a second home in the UK outside of London? (and those buying in London probably aren't European but more likely Russians and Middle East people.

Even with the weaker pound life in the UK is still very much overpriced, London house prices may rise as a result of a weaker pound but there is no chance of an increase anywhere because of a GBP weakness.

If you are European and like the South West then you buy a house in Brittany for half or a third of the price. It is going to take some serious devaluation and HPC for European to come buy second homes in the countryside IMO.

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I sold in 1991 when I relocated to the US. A few days ahead of the Soros hit.

My bank lost the wire when I was going to trade at around 1.47 and it took weeks to recall. Could have sued the stupid fools but didn't. It soared after that abnd hasn't really looked back despite the awful fundatmetals in the UK.

1991 was a year before the "Soros hit."

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...

The real run on Sterling started in late 2007 and has been going on ever since.

...

quite true, it is just daily noise, up half a % then down then back up... GBP may drop back closer to 1:1EUR but I don't think it will go much further (although I would like to).

The EUR isn't exactly in a better shape.

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Morning,

I am a "European". I have lived in the UK for about 10yrs not because I like it but because I earn good money over here. Now I am stuck here with 2 kids but even my English wife has been hassling me for years to leave the UK and go live elsewhere. Who do you think in Europe would be interested in buying a second home in the UK outside of London? (and those buying in London probably aren't European but more likely Russians and Middle East people.

Even with the weaker pound life in the UK is still very much overpriced, London house prices may rise as a result of a weaker pound but there is no chance of an increase anywhere because of a GBP weakness.

If you are European and like the South West then you buy a house in Brittany for half or a third of the price. It is going to take some serious devaluation and HPC for European to come buy second homes in the countryside IMO.

This.

Well said Frenchy.

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Yep. I have lost track of the number of Germans looking to buy flats in Dundee because the pound is so 'cheap'.......:rolleyes:

lol

it's funny because although there isn't an obvious relationship (to me anyway) between euro strength and UK house prices, charting HP's against eur/gbp does tend to show some correlation.

eg.

eurgbp.gif

and

HPvsEUR.gif

I would like to get data for RoI HPs' to compare against UK and NI (nationwide nominal quarterly data)

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The cuts aren't the issue, they're expected and welcomed.

The increasing talks of QE2, with King + Posen talking in the last 24 hours about it.. That's what's pissing on the markets chips.

+1. This is what landed in my email today from Caxton FX. (You can subscribe to their daily synopsis of the fx markets by registering). Recommended!

STERLING/EURO:

The focus of the week for sterling appeared to pass without too much drama but as the facts sink in the market has taken the pound lower.

* The MPC minutes released yesterday morning revealed, as many had expected, a three-way split in the vote. Andrew Sentance remained in favour of raising interest rates, Adam Posen voted to extend the QE budget by £50bn, whilst the remainder stayed on the fence.

* The report didn’t off too many surprises with the details largely already priced in, helping to cushion the pound’s decline.

* Sterling also appeared to weather the storm of the Spending Review. Osborne outlined a raft of hefty cuts, particularly to the welfare budget, but commentators complained about a lack of substance to the speech, and from the market’s perspective there was little contained within it that wasn’t already known.

* However, the Chancellor did reiterate his promise to impose a levy on banks, which gave the market another reason to sell the UK currency.

* Now investors have had a chance to digest yesterday’s announcement, sterling is continuing its steady decline. The story is still largely one of quantitative easing and any currency with a QE risk is likely to underperform.

* The pound has now dipped below 1.13, and with UK retail sales figures due today this trend is unlikely to definitively turn around just yet.

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  • 245 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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