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pajd

What Does The Spending Review Do For Hpc?

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I haven't read through it all but would like your thoughts.

Is it as bad as the public feared? Has it gone into the nitty gritty of where the momney will be cut? Did Osbourne have the guts to begin "swingeing cuts" or did he cop out? Are we as in the dark as we were yesterday?

Edited by pajd

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No idea. Don't think anyone does yet, lots to digest, the talking heads on tv are just reading their preprepared statements, no meaningful reactions yet. I await the broadsheets tomorrow, they might have read some of it.

In the meantime I'm enjoying the angry reactions of the man on the street who has had a camera shoved in their face who doesn't quite know what they're angry about.

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I am ******ing livid about something that was announced today. And when I work out what it is, heads will ******ing roll my friends, heads will ******ing roll!!

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I haven't read through it all but would like your thoughts.

Is it as bad as the public feared? Has it gone into the nitty gritty of where the momney will be cut? Did Osbourne have the guts to begin "swingeing cuts" or did he cop out? Are we as in the dark as we were yesterday?

I think it has to have an effect. The amount of coverage is v large and this will scare people (it scares me), even though these plans are yet to be put into action. People are not confident about their future financial/job situation and are therefore not buying. I put myself firmly into this bracket. Therefore I think this enforces people's uncertainty about the future and so I don't believe much will move.

Here in the SE I haven't seen much selling. Still plenty of stuff coming onto the market at silly prices though. Plenty of discounts evident through Property Bee.

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Short term

1. It will cause fear, may put people off house purchases - buyers have a strong position to haggle 20% off I think.

2. Motivate EAs (they now have an excuse) to talk down the market and get volumes up.

3. Banks are likely to further tighten lending criteria in the shorter term. Credit cards will be issued sparingly.

4. Strikes are very likely to happen. Stock up on essentials, medicines etc. Make contingency plans.

Long term

1. The cuts will actually take time to happen. Redundancy payments will keep people afloat.

2. Employment will only increase after costs to businesses fall (houseprices!)

3. The job market will be very tough over the next 5 years

4. Stubborn home vendors will chase the market down like in the 1990s.

5. Negative equity will stick for years.

6. Expect interest rates to spike up but only after an extended period of being low, expect further inflation of the essentials. Stagnant asset prices. Volatile stock markets.

7. People at the bottom of the food chain will find life in the UK very tough, although no where else in the world will be better.

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They're just guesses by the way.

The fly in the ointment is the US who have largely not gone down the austerity route, but still hinting toward stimulus.

As the dollar is the world reserve currency, they can afford to print, but the caveat there is not to rule out hyperinflation.

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7. People at the bottom of the food chain will find life in the UK very tough, although no where else in the world will be better.

Not sure about that. There are other countries better prepared to weather the storm and some have better social contracts. If the worst happens subsistence living in rural France is more pleasant that urban UK.

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Those who are lazy "because the government will pay me benefits", they're going to starve or go out into a life of crime. I'd doubt they would go and work in France (or get up in the morning!)

Edited by Money Spinner

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Though I was dissapointed with what was announced today, I still think it was net good for the housing market.

As the temporary 'crash' that happened in 2008/2009 showed, sentiment and a bit of fear will move the market faster than fundamentals.

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How many 25 to 35 year olds are living in flats on HB ?

Lets take an uninformed guess 200,000 say.

Am I understanding things right, that would result in 200,000 vacant flats ?

And a stampede to HMO's that are prepared to accept benefits ?

And a stampede back to Mum and Dad's.

Larger properties would have an additional appeal to wannabe landlords.

Flats for owner occupation ? fill yer boots.

If I understand the implications of this correctly, many existing BTL investors are going to be massacared.

:)

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I think this is the biggest treeshake HPCers could have hoped for. Only professional landlords will have the stomach for HMOs. Amateur landlords hemorrhaging money each month, facing capital value losses, increasing voids, and a lack of quality tenants will capitulate and sell now.

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  • 140 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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