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Leith

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Do you think prices in Leith (around Constitution Street) are going to fall significantly, especially given the shelving of the tram to the area?

We are thinking about where/when to buy in Edinburgh and Leith seems like a good place, around Constitution street with good restaurants etc.. but on the other hand, it could face decline more severely than New Town...

Thoughts?

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Personally I think that part of town is generally a shit hole.

Yes it is near town and they have had to 'gentrify' it all. However there is a LOT of scum around.

Depends what you want from an area though.

As for price falls - who knows. I think all areas of Edinburgh have a long way to go.

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I agree with ccc-that part of Leith is an island of yuppiness surrounded by some pretty grim areas and poor value even compared to the rest of edinburgh.

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Personally I think that part of town is generally a shit hole.

Yes it is near town and they have had to 'gentrify' it all. However there is a LOT of scum around.

Depends what you want from an area though.

As for price falls - who knows. I think all areas of Edinburgh have a long way to go.

The ocean front developments aren't all that bad in terms of size etc.

Just hugely over priced.

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I agree with ccc-that part of Leith is an island of yuppiness surrounded by some pretty grim areas and poor value even compared to the rest of edinburgh.

Yeah, my friends rented a flat a few years ago on a conversion just off Great Junction St. The flat was fine but it was proper gated to community to keep the locals out, right next to one of the nasty council blocks, a bit rough for my liking, they seemed to like the area though.

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Do you think prices in Leith (around Constitution Street) are going to fall significantly, especially given the shelving of the tram to the area?

We are thinking about where/when to buy in Edinburgh and Leith seems like a good place, around Constitution street with good restaurants etc..  but on the other hand, it could face decline more severely than New Town...

Thoughts?

Property  prices in Leith will collapse big time IMO, trams, yuppies and  "good" restaurants were the VI dreams of the Boom, that was last decade. Buying any property , anywhere , just now is  really really stupid IMO.

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The ocean front developments aren't all that bad in terms of size etc.

Just hugely over priced.

Know someone who rented one of the apparently better ones. Said the quality was not too impressive and didn't feel too solid.

Considering the abuse they are going to take from the elements - not a great sign IMO.

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Thanks for all your replies. We will probably wait a bit (no point chasing a falling knife)...but if we do see a well-priced house, we might be tempted...

What I don't understand, is why some home evaluations are above insurance value? many of the apts we have seen in New Town and Leith, the home report figure is lower than the insurance value, presumably leaving some cushion to make improvements. But in other cases, they are totally out of line. Some of what we have seen

Apt 1 (new town): insurance value:£230k; home report sale guide: £190k - needed new boiler and some cosmetic work

Apt 2 (new town): insurance value:£200k; home report sale guide: £250k - also needed upgrading

Apt 3 (Leith): insurance value: £185k; home report sale guide:£135 - needs full interior refurb, but new boiler already in place; assume 30k to redo the rest

Apt 4 (Leith): insurance value:£120k; home report sale guide £195k - needs a new kitchen at some point and some minor works

What gives? Shouldn't insurance value be what the house is actually worth, I mean, if my house burns down, why should I get considerably less than what I paid?

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What gives? Shouldn't insurance value be what the house is actually worth, I mean, if my house burns down, why should I get considerably less than what I paid?

I'm just guessing, but could it be because you've paid for the land as well? If your house burns down then you'll have to pay for a new house to be built, but at least you've still got the land left so you won't have to pay for that. No idea what the situation would be in a flat in a tenement though.

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I'm just guessing, but could it be because you've paid for the land as well? If your house burns down then you'll have to pay for a new house to be built, but at least you've still got the land left so you won't have to pay for that. No idea what the situation would be in a flat in a tenement though.

The insurance value is the rebuild cost. Cost to rebuild a new house = cheap. Cost to rebuild a period property in that style=expensive.

It is an irrelevant figure for the purposes of house purchasing. When it comes to actually insuring your house against fire etc many companies don't even bother setting insurance values, they either put it in bands (e.g. up to 500k) or state that rebuild costs have no set limit.

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I live in Leith, not the bit you are interested in. I like it, very quiet street, great neighbours, near shops, bank, park, GP, etc.

House prices and sales have stagnated since 2007. See no reason Leith will be any different from rest of Edinburgh. My own hunch is that new build flats will loose value quicker than anything else

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The insurance value is the rebuild cost. Cost to rebuild a new house = cheap. Cost to rebuild a period property in that style=expensive.

It is an irrelevant figure for the purposes of house purchasing. When it comes to actually insuring your house against fire etc many companies don't even bother setting insurance values, they either put it in bands (e.g. up to 500k) or state that rebuild costs have no set limit.

Not sure why insurance value is irrelevant to house prices. After all, the cost to build should be closely related to price, no? Especially for a flat with very limited land ownership (e.g., 1/8 freehold). The home report valuations seem very subjective, but the cost to rebuild/insure seems to me a much better indicator of the real value of the property...

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Not sure why insurance value is irrelevant to house prices. After all, the cost to build should be closely related to price, no? Especially for a flat with very limited land ownership (e.g., 1/8 freehold). The home report valuations seem very subjective, but the cost to rebuild/insure seems to me a much better indicator of the real value of the property...

1. Rebuild costs are the same regardless of location-2 identical flats-one in the Grange and one in Niddrie would have the same insurance value. Are you honestly saying that you would view these places as being of equivalent value :o

2. Rebuild costs are sensitive to the materials used. E.g. 2 similar houses in a similar area-one modern and one period. They may have similar market values but the modern house would be cheaper to rebuild as its made of blockwork and timber compared to a period place that may have to be rebuilt in sandstone etc.

3. Rebuild costs on modern places should be lower than market value-if they werent then developers would never bother building anything!

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1. Rebuild costs are the same regardless of location-2 identical flats-one in the Grange and one in Niddrie would have the same insurance value. Are you honestly saying that you would view these places as being of equivalent value :o

2. Rebuild costs are sensitive to the materials used. E.g. 2 similar houses in a similar area-one modern and one period. They may have similar market values but the modern house would be cheaper to rebuild as its made of blockwork and timber compared to a period place that may have to be rebuilt in sandstone etc.

3. Rebuild costs on modern places should be lower than market value-if they werent then developers would never bother building anything!

fair point, fflump. that being said, I am struggling to understand what is the 'fair' price of the properties I am looking at...if I look at what other properties sold for in the vicinity, I am just looking at HPI across the area...if I want historic value, do I look at 2000 prices, 2004 prices or 2006 prices...or just look at 2007 prices and deduct 10% or 20%? All confused...

I used to live in the US and could do a rational calc. of land costs (which vary by area) and build costs per square foot, and add a 10% profit and arrive at price. Cannot seem to apply that logic to Edinburgh. In fact, most properties do not even list the sq footage in their schedule:-(

thanks for all your informative posts, and thanks to all the others who replied.

to the poster who said they are happy living in Leith, would you mind sharing the location?

thanks all!

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I am not sure there is such a thing as a rational cost for a house in the UK !!

Or anywhere for that matter. It all fluctuates wildly depending on the usual conditions.

Look at Detroit. Does the rebuilding cost have anything at all to do with the present value ? Not at all.

A simple 3 times the wage of the 'average' person buying these places should give you a rough idea.

One bed Gorgie/Leith flat. 'Average' buyer on maybe 22k. Therefore 'rational' price would be 66k.

Very simple but the easiest way to look at it IMO.

Build costs are clearly important for new builds or building your own place from scratch. However for anything not new ? I don't see the relevance. They have been built. They have been sold. They have been paid for. What they are 'worth' after this point has little, of nothing, to do with the build/rebuild cost IMO.

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The gross internal area of a property is usually listed in the home report, you might compare a few of those.

As for what is a "fair value", well there really is no such thing. There is the market value, i.e. the most anyone is willing to pay for it, and there is the marginal utility value of it, which is the most you are willing to pay for it instead of spending that money on something else. The popular fallacy peddled on this forum is that "because I wouldn't pay that much it can't possibly be worth it" is actually an unhelpful way of looking at it. Sure there are going to be capital value falls in the near future, but if you're in a position to pay down your debt and are happy with what you can afford then there's no reason not to buy right now. Of course if you have to borrow to the max and all you can get is a shoebox in Niddrie then that's another matter.

Didn't there used to be a prostitution "tolerance zone" in Leith?

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The gross internal area of a property is usually listed in the home report, you might compare a few of those.

As for what is a "fair value", well there really is no such thing. There is the market value, i.e. the most anyone is willing to pay for it, and there is the marginal utility value of it, which is the most you are willing to pay for it instead of spending that money on something else. The popular fallacy peddled on this forum is that "because I wouldn't pay that much it can't possibly be worth it" is actually an unhelpful way of looking at it. Sure there are going to be capital value falls in the near future, but if you're in a position to pay down your debt and are happy with what you can afford then there's no reason not to buy right now. Of course if you have to borrow to the max and all you can get is a shoebox in Niddrie then that's another matter.

Didn't there used to be a prostitution "tolerance zone" in Leith?

:blink:

How about - if I wait a year I may have an extra 10k in my pocket to spend on something else - and also have the same place to live in....

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:blink:

How about - if I wait a year I may have an extra 10k in my pocket to spend on something else - and also have the same place to live in....

This is exactly the fallacy I'm talking about, why is being nominally better off by 10k better than enjoying the property I wanted for the preceding year? You'll notice that I didn't define what utility means, whereas you are treating it as self-evidently true that it is being cash rich.

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If you are content in the house you are in (renting/staying at home or whatever) - but would prefer to move to another one ?

Surely if you think prices will fall then you are going to be 'better' off waiting. Both mentally and financially.

I suppose it all depends on how that extra year in the house would impact you. If it would totally change your life then yes I agree with you. However for most I reckon this is not the case.

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If you are content in the house you are in (renting/staying at home or whatever) - but would prefer to move to another one ?

Surely if you think prices will fall then you are going to be 'better' off waiting. Both mentally and financially.

I suppose it all depends on how that extra year in the house would impact you. If it would totally change your life then yes I agree with you. However for most I reckon this is not the case.

Exactly-for some people their situation is that they are happy renting and buying would not change their quality of life much. Therefore it comes down to a financial call/prediction.

Someone else may be unhappy renting due to lack of suitable properties for them/their family, hassle of moving e.g if they have young children, desire to be settled in a certain school catchment. Therefore they may want to buy despite down-side risks to property prices.

It is rare that anyone times the market properly however. In fact most people do not: transaction levels are invariably lower at the bottom of crashes than at the peak of booms. Fear of falls can cost one money just as excessive bullishness can. My work colleague refused to buy in 2002 because he thought prices too high and missed out big time compared to myself. Equally, someone who bought in 2007 is heading for a loss in the coming years.

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It is a bit rough for my liking - was walking round the council estate behind the shopping area at the bottom of Leith walk - could hear a couple having a massive argument from inside one of the flats. Got the impression it could be like that every night :blink:

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I used to live in the US and could do a rational calc. of land costs (which vary by area) and build costs per square foot, and add a 10% profit and arrive at price. Cannot seem to apply that logic to Edinburgh.

That's reasonable for a new-build, but could you honestly apply that approach to the 'mature' developments, to custom-built homes, etc in your home country?

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  • 152 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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