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hobdoll

Gold Dropping Fast

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Floor at $1340 like I said in your earlier thread. Time to consolidate the record gains since July. Not arguing with you, just stating my case so we can revisit and reflect in coming days and weeks.

20 day MA? Interesting call. Are you buying today :P

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20 day MA? Interesting call. Are you buying today :P

If we had a drop to sub-$1000 chances are I'd buy some more, but to be honest I got fully loaded sub-$1000 some time back, so not much need. I'm in for the end game, not in the business of trying to time trades to make (or more likely lose) some quick bucks.

Edited by General Congreve

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whats all that about!

Sorry hobdoll, you posted this thread so quickly you didn't give RB the chance to post his usual "gold is doomed" thread whenever it falls about $30.

:ph34r:

See what I mean?

RB, haven't we played out this particular dance many, many times before?

Remember when gold fell from $740 to $590? Do you remember your comments then?

If only I could buy gold at $740 today.

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Euro is dropping faster than £.: 1.37934

Civil unwrest, sovereign debt about to blow up again and Germany's low sentiment poll.....

The icy winds of deflation?

Cor, hope so as it ain't arf bin getting boring on here again lately. :D

And one other thing:

EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED

Pound dropping against the euro.........euro worth 88p as of this morning.

We will import our inflation if they don't make it homegrown with QE2.

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Pound dropping against the euro.........euro worth 88p as of this morning.

We will import our inflation if they don't make it homegrown with QE2.

Buy British. ;)

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My local EA just bought a 2.5kg bar of silver this morning.

That may prove to be the market top for Ag.

Such a juicy comment I'm adding this to my sig.

Now let me get this straight RB, your local EA buys a silver bar today in a weight I've never heard of (2 kg maybe, but 2.5?) and he what? Emails you to let you know? Phones you up? Or did you just happen to call in and it came up in conversation?

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If we had a drop to sub-$1000 chances are I'd buy some more, but to be honest I got fully loaded sub-$1000 some time back, so not much need. I'm in for the end game, not in the business of trying to time trades to make (or more likely lose) some quick bucks.

On what basis are you calling 1340 as the floor then? At what point would you get out?

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On what basis are you calling 1340 as the floor then? At what point would you get out?

OK, let's talk pounds, as that's where it really matters for me as an investor/wealth protector. It would have to weaken to sub-£700 for me to start getting a bit twitchy. However, if it went that low it depends on the reasons it went that low. If it was blatantly obvious the status quo was unchanged and that there was an unprecedented amount of shorts from the usual criminals, I'd probably be thanking my lucky stars and jumping for joy and loading up on more, not selling out my position.

$1340 because it seems about right. We've hit $1392, so roughly $50 below that looks good for a reasonable pullback and consolidation of July's gains, from my observations of the market thus far.

Edited by General Congreve

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Now let me get this straight RB, your local EA buys a silver bar today in a weight I've never heard of (2 kg maybe, but 2.5?) and he what? Emails you to let you know? Phones you up? Or did you just happen to call in and it came up in conversation?

:D:D

RB`s is really trolling behaviour isnt it.

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Such a juicy comment I'm adding this to my sig.

Now let me get this straight RB, your local EA buys a silver bar today in a weight I've never heard of (2 kg maybe, but 2.5?) and he what? Emails you to let you know? Phones you up? Or did you just happen to call in and it came up in conversation?

Nah, I dropped in to spread the doom and gloom. He is mostly a commercial EA and we rent some office space through his business. He has an accountant freind who is also a deflationist so he gets it all the time. He just bought his 2.5kg bar from a local bullion trrader--I actually picked the thing up and admired its shinyness. We were both watching the numbers on the computer and he was feeling a bit Moby.

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Such a juicy comment I'm adding this to my sig.

Now let me get this straight RB, your local EA buys a silver bar today in a weight I've never heard of (2 kg maybe, but 2.5?) and he what? Emails you to let you know? Phones you up? Or did you just happen to call in and it came up in conversation?

never seen or heard of one in my life (will be more than please to be corrected)

the oddest thing i ever saw was a modern Venters sterling bar as opposed to .999, i have also seen 0.5k Birmingham mint private customer bars.

but buying 2.5kg bars from the known dealers for most retail customers would be a rarity indeed

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Going back up--nothing to see here today folks.

:P

As has been said many times before, until the soverign debt crisis is resolved one way or another this has a long time to play out.

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As has been said many times before, until the soverign debt crisis is resolved one way or another this has a long time to play out.

A growing number of economists who are arguing that QE is useless and has the opposite to the desired effect are saying deflation. The sovereign debt crisis will simply "happen", poverty will ensue and deflation will once again rule the earth.

"I have eliminated the inflation/deflation cycle." Gordon Brown*

*PM of the UK in 2008-2010 now retired somewhere in Scotland while continuing to draw a MP's salary and generous expense accout.

Edited by Realistbear

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My previous post states my response and position vis-a-vis gold to Blackgoose in well-reasoned English. I welcome a well-reasoned response to my reasoning.

By 'well-reasoned response' I do not mean simplistic answers, like:

1. Gold is a bubble, LOL!

2. Gold is overbought!

3. Everything goes up until it goes down.

4. Goldbugs are scum!

You get the picture. All I want is a well-reasoned response with some facts about why it's a bad investment at this point in time and how the fundamentals back that up. Good honest intelligent debate please.

EDIT: If you are going to offer rebuttals please do it through taking my reasoning apart, not resorting to playground name-calling, it serves no purpose but to expose your lack of critical thinking.

Does this help at all? :)

UK_House_Prices_in_Gold.png

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A growing number of economists who are arguing that QE is useless and has the opposite to the desired effect are saying deflation. The sovereign debt crisis will simply "happen", poverty will ensue and deflation will once again rule the earth.

"I have eliminated the inflation/deflation cycle." Gordon Brown*

*PM of the UK in 2008-2010 now retired somewhere in Scotland while continuing to draw a MP's salary and generous expense accout.

Gold isn't all about inflation. What happens when the sovereign debt crisis 'happens' across the US/UK/Eurozone and we have massive defaults across the board?

Is it possible the dollar, pound and euro will take an almighty kicking? Will savers lose huge amounts of value in their savings? Will prudent people see their pension funds misappropriated by governments to pay govt. debt (Argentina 2002) and cover bank loses (Iceland 2010)?

What will happen to the price of gold in these currencies? I'll tell you. It'll readjust upwards to take account of the weakened currency in question. Just like happened to the PoG in Icelandic Kroner. Anyone holding gold in Iceland instead of Kroner when the music stopped playing were not left nursing losses. They kept their hard earned wealth.

Also, tell me what happens when a tsunami of money fleeing the collapsing dollar, euro and pound races towards gold. I'll tell you. Investment demand will spike, spectacularly. So not only will those that converted there paper to gold be protected against devaluation of their wealth, they'll profit handsomely from the effect on the price of the ensuing demand/supply situation.

Please explain, with a well-reasoned argument, why I am wrong Bear.

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Does this help at all? :)

UK_House_Prices_in_Gold.png

Nice. :ph34r:

Note the massive price deflation in 'real' money. Also note how skewed the peak of the graph was compared to the last 'fiat money crisis' in the 70's. This has a lot of downwards momentum. :D

"15 Ounces for your house Sir? I'll give you 10. Pleasure to deal with you." :ph34r:

Edited by General Congreve

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Gold isn't all about inflation. What happens when the sovereign debt crisis 'happens' across the US/UK/Eurozone and we have massive defaults across the board?

Is it possible the dollar, pound and euro will take an almighty kicking? Will savers lose huge amounts of value in their savings? Will prudent people see their pension funds misappropriated by governments to pay govt. debt (Argentina 2002) and cover bank loses (Iceland 2010)?

What will happen to the price of gold in these currencies? I'll tell you. It'll readjust upwards to take account of the weakened currency in question. Just like happened to the PoG in Icelandic Kroner. Anyone holding gold in Iceland instead of Kroner when the music stopped playing were not left nursing losses. They kept their hard earned wealth.

Also, tell me what happens when a tsunami of money fleeing the collapsing dollar, euro and pound races towards gold. I'll tell you. Investment demand will spike, spectacularly. So not only will those that converted there paper to gold be protected against devaluation of their wealth, they'll profit handsomely from the effect on the price of the ensuing demand/supply situation.

Please explain, with a well-reasoned argument, why I am wrong Bear.

If there is an economic meltdown (deflation) cash will be King and Bonds will be the Queen. Devaluation is impossible if everyone does it--relativity cancelled out by equal cforces headed in the same direction etc.

The world has too much capacity and not enough demand from those with the ability to pay for goods through production. Lack of demand forces down prices and falling prices deflate bubbles.

Gold is cyclical--perhaps more so than any other commodity (thing that is bought and sold). It may (may)* be nearing its top as it did in 1980 when everyone rushed for the exits and it crashed from its all time high (IA) of c. $830 to around $200 almsot overnight.

Too much jittery sentiment around for anything that even looks like a bubble at the moment.

* May

Edited by Realistbear

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If there is an economic meltdown (deflation) cash will be King and Bonds will be the Queen. Devaluation is impossible if everyone does it--relativity cancelled out by equal cforces headed in the same direction etc.

The world has too much capacity and not enough demand from those with the ability to pay for goods through production. Lack of demand forces down prices and falling prices deflate bubbles.

Gold is cyclical--perhaps more so than any other commodity (thing that is bought and sold). It may (may)* be nearing its top as it did in 1980 when everyone rushed for the exits and it crashed from its all time high (IA) of c. $830 to around $200 almsot overnight.

Too much jittery sentiment around for anything that even looks like a bubble at the moment.

* May

Firstly, gold did not collapse overnight, sure it went into a steep down trend, followed by 'a return to normality' (normally seen when a bull market ends), so savvy investors were able to take profits well into 1981 at reasonable levels if they followed the market closely and didn't buy in too late. Like I said earlier, take some profits as a bull market progresses to hedge risk and such sudden moves will not cause you sleepless nights.

Secondly the reason it went down was nothing to do with cyclical movements. It soared because there was a dollar crisis, Paul Volcker, the then US Treasury Secretary averted the crisis (at the time), by whacking up interest rates to 20%. This was the end on gold's bull run that time. Volcker caused a lot of economic pain, but saved the dollar for the meantime, until reckless monetary policy took hold again.

Now, can you imagine them whacking up interest rates to 20% now to fortify the dollar, euro, pound (in reality it'd need to be higher in all probability, due to the magnified nature of the problem this time round)? Can you imagine what that would do to what remains of our fragile economies and consumers? They would be toast, along with the currency, as the economy backing it collapsed. This would be great news for gold, as when a currency weakens, the price of gold in that currency increases by a proportional amount.

Well, as we can see if we get inflation, they're cornered, cos they can't use interest rates to control it without trashing the economy (and therefore trashing the banks and also causing exploding govt. debt due to more debt interest. - see below). But as you rightly argue, deflation could be around the corner instead. What happens in deflation? The debt burden explodes as the money supply shrinks and govts. aren't able to pay off debts with cheaper money by diluting the currency. What happens when countries look like they can't pay their debts? Interest rates go up. What happens then? See above.

If they want to stop interest rates going up, and so avert an interest rate driven crisis, they have to QE (cheapen the currency). But this undermines the strength of the currency by diluting it.

This is the situation we find ourselves in. The dollar, euro and pound are damned if they do, damned if the don't. This is the case for gold ownership.

Edited by General Congreve

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  • 221 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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