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Northern Ireland 'rents Rise As House Prices Fall

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i would like to see their data pool esp. % accomodation types of total sample and total sample size as % of total lets NI

Now if the real story is that yield has increased then that would be totally understandable

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BBC Link

Anybody seeing this happening on the ground?

(Rent Rises)

I had a conversation with a letting agent recently up North. He was saying he had seen rents rising slightly.

He was saying quite a few agents are putting property on the usual websites for rent but it would seem the agents are trying to make it look like their busy rent property for some reason. I've noticed this myself after he said about it, property on for rent and then 2 months later on for rent again, another 2 months and its on again. Apparently the OFT are looking into it.

In other words not as much property available to rent up this neck of the woods as you may think. Try for yourself ring a few and see how many are available even thought they only went on the market.

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i would like to see their data pool esp. % accomodation types of total sample and total sample size as % of total lets NI

Now if the real story is that yield has increased then that would be totally understandable

Totally agree about sample size and yields PP. Looks like City Lets only have 1,695 NI properties listed on their site whereas PN.com list 2,953 properties to rent and pp.com list 3,662 rental properties.

Given their name "City Lets" it is perhaps not surprising that their report focuses on Belfast city. In any event their rental inventory is broken down as

881 rental listings for Belfast

Co. Antrim has 237 rental listings

Co Armagh 80 rental listings

Co Down 408 rental listings

Co Fermanagh 0 rental listings

Co Derry/Londonderry 88 rental listings

Co Tyrone 1 rental listing

Edited by paul65

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Totally agree about sample size and yields PP. Looks like City Lets only have 1,695 NI properties listed on their site whereas PN.com list 2,953 properties to rent and pp.com list 3,662 rental properties.

Given their name "City Lets" perhaps it is perhaps not surprising that their report focuses on Belfast city. In any event their rental inventory is broken down as

881 rental listings for Belfast

Co. Antrim has 237 rental listings

Co Armagh 80 rental listings

Co Down 408 rental listings

Co Fermanagh 0 rental listings

Co Derry/Londonderry 88 rental listings

Co Tyrone 1 rental listing

says it all really - good investigative work Paul (as always)

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I want to take issue with the BBC for their headline. They say Northern Ireland and the report from City Lets is about rent rises in Belfast.

Does the BBC think that Belfast is Northern Ireland?

My thoughts too when i saw the headline yesterday on ceefax. Does the BBC not think first before posting a story?

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Totally agree about sample size and yields PP. Looks like City Lets only have 1,695 NI properties listed on their site whereas PN.com list 2,953 properties to rent and pp.com list 3,662 rental properties.

Given their name "City Lets" it is perhaps not surprising that their report focuses on Belfast city. In any event their rental inventory is broken down as

881 rental listings for Belfast

Co. Antrim has 237 rental listings

Co Armagh 80 rental listings

Co Down 408 rental listings

Co Fermanagh 0 rental listings

Co Derry/Londonderry 88 rental listings

Co Tyrone 1 rental listing

Interesting you guys mention sample size. I would have thought City Lets report was no less reliable than Nationwide's or the Halifax's reports, considering their sample size.

Quite a lot of people put a lot of weight behind what Nationwide's and Halifax's reports have to say about NI house prices. Some on here got very excited at Hali's last report. One poster even came lol

City Let have 1695 properties on their site, how many mortgages did Nationwide and the Halifax approve last year? I don't think they done anywhere near 1695, thats more like a 2 years sample size for both Nationwide and Halifax if your lucky.

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Interesting you guys mention sample size. I would have thought City Lets report was no less reliable than Nationwide's or the Halifax's reports, considering their sample size.

Quite a lot of people put a lot of weight behind what Nationwide's and Halifax's reports have to say about NI house prices. Some on here got very excited at Hali's last report. One poster even came lol

City Let have 1695 properties on their site, how many mortgages did Nationwide and the Halifax approve last year? I don't think they done anywhere near 1695, thats more like a 2 years sample size for both Nationwide and Halifax if your lucky.

this is the headline:

Northern Ireland 'rents rise as house prices fall'

coming from a firm that has 1 rental listing in Fermanagh and Tyrone combined. Is natwide data that geographically restricted? no i don't think so

so given the fact that their name is city let and their poor rural representation, are we to assume that rental prices are increasing for all types of property in all regions of northern Ireland?

I have no problem with data showing me that rental prices maybe indeed increasing but hey let's have a bit of transparency, lets see the accommodation type %s and criteria re. whether they are asking prices, new leases to the market or agreed leases

show me the data!

edit - natwide data showed Q3 +ve, one for the bulls eh?!

Edited by p.p.

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this is the headline:

Northern Ireland 'rents rise as house prices fall'

coming from a firm that has 1 rental listing in Fermanagh and Tyrone combined. Is natwide data that geographically restricted? no i don't think so

so given the fact that their name is city let and their poor rural representation, are we to assume that rental prices are increasing for all types of property in all regions of northern Ireland?

I have no problem with data showing me that rental prices maybe indeed increasing but hey let's have a bit of transparency, lets see the accommodation type %s and criteria re. whether they are asking prices, new leases to the market or agreed leases

show me the data!

edit - natwide data showed Q3 +ve, one for the bulls eh?!

I didn't say the City Let report is right, I'm saying it is no less credible than Nationwide's and Halifax's reports. Infact unless you can put a number on the mortgages approved in NI by these housing market reports I would say City Let have more data available to compile a report than the 2 mortgage providers mentioned.

You talk about transparency, how many mortgages did Nationwide and the Hali approve in Fermanagh or Tyrone in their last report?

You of all posters should know how much emphasis people put on house price reports.

Show me the data!

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I didn't say the City Let report is right, I'm saying it is no less credible than Nationwide's and Halifax's reports. Infact unless you can put a number on the mortgages approved in NI by these housing market reports I would say City Let have more data available to compile a report than the 2 mortgage providers mentioned.

You talk about transparency, how many mortgages did Nationwide and the Hali approve in Fermanagh or Tyrone in their last report?

You of all posters should know how much emphasis people put on house price reports.

Show me the data!

well for a start you're right to question the data sample so no disagreement form me on that front, and to that end:

How long have you been publishing house price data?

* We have the longest unbroken run of house price data - it stretches back to 1952 on a quarterly basis and 1991 on a monthly basis.

Are your house prices biased because you do more lending in the South East?

* No. The whole point of mix adjusting prices is to remove any bias that the Nationwide mortgage data may exhibit whether that be the type of property we lent on or its location or indeed any one of the other characteristics we use to identify our representative house

What sample size do we have?

* Nationwide has sufficient sample size to produce a representative house price series. N.B. Net lending figures quoted at our half yearly and annual results are not a guide to our sample size. Sample size is based on the number of new loans we write i.e. the amount of gross lending for house purchase.

Can we now see City Let methodology please? my biggest concerns would be the accom. type and how they get round the geographic spread (i.e. lack of representation in 1/3 of NI)

note to doccy - have the links to natwide data been removed from the pinned useful data thread?

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this is the headline:

Northern Ireland 'rents rise as house prices fall'

coming from a firm that has 1 rental listing in Fermanagh and Tyrone combined. Is natwide data that geographically restricted? no i don't think so

so given the fact that their name is city let and their poor rural representation, are we to assume that rental prices are increasing for all types of property in all regions of northern Ireland?

I have no problem with data showing me that rental prices maybe indeed increasing but hey let's have a bit of transparency, lets see the accommodation type %s and criteria re. whether they are asking prices, new leases to the market or agreed leases

show me the data!

edit - natwide data showed Q3 +ve, one for the bulls eh?!

Did Nationwide get that sale in Fermanagh?

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Did Nationwide get that sale in Fermanagh?

Q) Do nationwide have any branches in Fermanagh and Tyrone?

A) Yes

Q) Do nationwide set-up mortgages over the phone?

A) Yes

Q) Does City let have any rental properties available in the above two counties (1/3 of NI counties)

A) Yes.................1

Q) Has anybody been able to provide details on City Lets sampling methodology as yet

A) Non

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All very interesting stuff. I think the greater Belfast area would be the main area for the rental market, as it is for the housing market in general. We all agree that the Nationwide and Halifax reports are only a guide as they only sample the houses on which they issue mortgages. I believe Nationwide has less than 8% of the Northern Ireland mortgage market. Ulster Bank is the largest and now has over 60% of the important First Time Buyer market. They place the average price of property in NI well into the £160k bracket, so we therefore ignore them.

I like the Nationwide as, despite there low volume and (my opinion) that their products, like the Halifax are aimed at lower priced units, they have a very extensive reports system. Most people here ignore their various blips and blobs and their recent reported rise hardly got a mention at all.

Equally Rightmoves reported 3.1% rise last month got the same coverage in the UK board as Halifax's 3.5% fall for the same month. We here question the relevance of one quarters results never mind the relevance of one months.

However, I for one am quite happy with a sample size of around 2,000 units. If they show a 7% rise then I take note. When you read the report you will see that is is only now rising after falling and is barely back to where it was 12 months ago. If people don't buy houses they generally rent. If there are more people coming into the rental market than those going out it will build a little pressure. I am not an expert in this area but I liked the heading. Rents rise as prices fall, as it makes sense to me.

Back to the beloved Nationwide.

In the first 18 months or so the Nationwide Report showed that the NI average house fell £92k or 40.8% (Q3 2007 to Q2 2008) {95% of the drop to date]

In the next 18 months or so the Nationwide Report showed that the average bounced around and fell a further 2.2%(Q2 2008 to Q3 2010) [5% of the drop to date]

So 95% of the drop occurred in the first half of the crash and 5% in the second half of the crash. ( I am the first to admit we are not at the end yet)

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many moons ago i posted links to natwide data in the pinned 'useful' thread with details of sampling methodologies and how seasonal adjustments were done, they seem to have disappeared!

please tell me that i am not following the route of many conspiratorial minded hpc posters :lol:;)

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I rented in May 2010 and am paying £150 a month less than the last tenants. The house wasn't even on the market for long 4 - 6 weeks, the LL just wanted it taken ASAP. 20% drop.

Newtownabbey area literaly 5 mins into Belfast.

It's quite a nice area and any I have seen up to let recently seem to have gone quickly tho I haven't been following the prices.

Edited by fixed

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All very interesting stuff. I think the greater Belfast area would be the main area for the rental market, as it is for the housing market in general. We all agree that the Nationwide and Halifax reports are only a guide as they only sample the houses on which they issue mortgages. I believe Nationwide has less than 8% of the Northern Ireland mortgage market. Ulster Bank is the largest and now has over 60% of the important First Time Buyer market. They place the average price of property in NI well into the £160k bracket, so we therefore ignore them.

I like the Nationwide as, despite there low volume and (my opinion) that their products, like the Halifax are aimed at lower priced units, they have a very extensive reports system. Most people here ignore their various blips and blobs and their recent reported rise hardly got a mention at all.

Equally Rightmoves reported 3.1% rise last month got the same coverage in the UK board as Halifax's 3.5% fall for the same month. We here question the relevance of one quarters results never mind the relevance of one months.

However, I for one am quite happy with a sample size of around 2,000 units. If they show a 7% rise then I take note. When you read the report you will see that is is only now rising after falling and is barely back to where it was 12 months ago. If people don't buy houses they generally rent. If there are more people coming into the rental market than those going out it will build a little pressure. I am not an expert in this area but I liked the heading. Rents rise as prices fall, as it makes sense to me.

Back to the beloved Nationwide.

In the first 18 months or so the Nationwide Report showed that the NI average house fell £92k or 40.8% (Q3 2007 to Q2 2008) {95% of the drop to date]

In the next 18 months or so the Nationwide Report showed that the average bounced around and fell a further 2.2%(Q2 2008 to Q3 2010) [5% of the drop to date]

So 95% of the drop occurred in the first half of the crash and 5% in the second half of the crash. ( I am the first to admit we are not at the end yet)

as stated previously.....

1) we need to see City Lets sampling data methodologies for coping with only 1 available property in 1/3 of the entire NI locale

2) what is their mix of accom. types? at this moment in time I would wager that this would not be as diverse as natwide sample diversity

as regards natwide, we have very little else to go on in NI, as unlike the rest of the UK, there is a data blackout on previous sales data i.e. land registry

so we takes what we can get and have to live with that. which is why the city let data could be very valuable - if we could only examine it more

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as stated previously.....

1) we need to see City Lets sampling data methodologies for coping with only 1 available property in 1/3 of the entire NI locale

2) what is their mix of accom. types? at this moment in time I would wager that this would not be as diverse as natwide sample diversity

as regards natwide, we have very little else to go on in NI, as unlike the rest of the UK, there is a data blackout on previous sales data i.e. land registry

so we takes what we can get and have to live with that. which is why the city let data could be very valuable - if we could only examine it more

Do you ever feel you are banging your head against a brick wall on this forum p.p;) People only believe what they want to believe. Your postings have always been logical and commonsensical to me anyway, and I would imagine 99% of people reading them.

The house we were renting in Carnmoney, Newtownabbey was up 'for rent' for about 3 weeks. During this time I showed about 10 different parties around and 3 were interested and the landlord then choose which tenant they preferred which happened to be a young couple with no children

. The rent has stayed the same now for 3 years and most people we showed round were young families who couldn't afford to buy and only other option was to rent. Quite sad really as when I got married my first house was 78,950 and that was only 7 years ago and it was a lovely new build (okay in Larne), but still there is the uncertainty for these people for the future

. My friend has just been told her landlord is selling up and will not be renewing her rental contract (which expires in Feb) only on a month to month basis and she is due to give birth any day.......she can't even get a momentum mortgage with both her and her husbands income and can't save for a deposit cause she's paying rent and increasing bills etc.... felt so sorry for her and how unfair it is that the housing bubble has created so many casualties....... my generation are suffering the most, the youth are so depressed with no jobs etc....I have no idea where we are heading but the cost to society will be great.

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Do you ever feel you are banging your head against a brick wall on this forum p.p;) People only believe what they want to believe. Your postings have always been logical and commonsensical to me anyway, and I would imagine 99% of people reading them.

The house we were renting in Carnmoney, Newtownabbey was up 'for rent' for about 3 weeks. During this time I showed about 10 different parties around and 3 were interested and the landlord then choose which tenant they preferred which happened to be a young couple with no children

. The rent has stayed the same now for 3 years and most people we showed round were young families who couldn't afford to buy and only other option was to rent. Quite sad really as when I got married my first house was 78,950 and that was only 7 years ago and it was a lovely new build (okay in Larne), but still there is the uncertainty for these people for the future

. My friend has just been told her landlord is selling up and will not be renewing her rental contract (which expires in Feb) only on a month to month basis and she is due to give birth any day.......she can't even get a momentum mortgage with both her and her husbands income and can't save for a deposit cause she's paying rent and increasing bills etc.... felt so sorry for her and how unfair it is that the housing bubble has created so many casualties....... my generation are suffering the most, the youth are so depressed with no jobs etc....I have no idea where we are heading but the cost to society will be great.

Hello Sophia

I do feel like banging my head against the wall sometimes; it's a shame we cannot examine the CityLet data more as it could prove very useful esp. in identifying trends with regard to say Belfast renter preferences etc. eg. how much more have rents increased in flats (sorry apartments neets) as opposed to your basic terrace and what about big detached houses? etc. Similarly, getting a handle on their accom. types in different geographic spreads and what is the survey based on - asking prices or agreed rentals? and so on.

at least nationwide make their methodology available and in their quarterly reports you get regional breakdowns (pg. 7), also we know that their data is based on agreed mortgages and so on. and very importantly, they serve the whole of NI

wrt, the state of play here, when i am out and about working i get talking to people and it is common to hear that so and so down the road, or my daughter or whoever (etc.) is now in -ve equity. I did a job for a young woman not long ago who is packing it all in here and has got a job lined up in Aus - she is letting her house here because of the -ve equity she has found herself in (her words).

there's some shocking -ve equity details coming to the fore now on the main forum re. RoI, where flat (sorry apartments neets) buyers are looking at 200+ euro -ve equity

but, the flip side of the coin is that those who have been priced out may now (soon) get a chance to buy

Edited by p.p.

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Hello Sophia

I do feel like banging my head against the wall sometimes; it's a shame we cannot examine the CityLet data more as it could prove very useful esp. in identifying trends with regard to say Belfast renter preferences etc. eg. how much more have rents increased in flats (sorry apartments neets) as opposed to your basic terrace and what about big detached houses? etc. Similarly, getting a handle on their accom. types in different geographic spreads and what is the survey based on - asking prices or agreed rentals? and so on.

at least nationwide make their methodology available and in their quarterly reports you get regional breakdowns (pg. 7), also we know that their data is based on agreed mortgages and so on. and very importantly, they serve the whole of NI

wrt, the state of play here, when i am out and about working i get talking to people and it is common to hear that so and so down the road, or my daughter or whoever (etc.) is now in -ve equity. I did a job for a young woman not long ago who is packing it all in here and has got a job lined up in Aus - she is letting her house here because of the -ve equity she has found herself in (her words).

there's some shocking -ve equity details coming to the fore now on the main forum re. RoI, where flat (sorry apartments neets) buyers are looking at 200+ euro -ve equity

but, the flip side of the coin is that those who have been priced out may now (soon) get a chance to buy

+1!

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I've always said rents are a better indication of affordability, and therefore linked more strongly to wages. Have average salaries increase? Has the population suddenly increased? Are there more people than properties? The answers to all those are fairly obvious.

The only explanation one might reasonably use is that there are more renting than buying, but I believe this ratio is extremely elastic, as supply will simply rise to meet demand as it becomes easier and quicker to find tennants. Someone always owns the property. It could be that the banks have taken so many properties out of circulation that it has caused a temporary lack of supply, but with empty houses in the 60,000 territory there is plenty of potential supply.

In any case, rents will only rise or fall by small amounts IMO (without gov't interference). Likely cuts will cause rent reductions at the bottom of the market.

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I've always said rents are a better indication of affordability, and therefore linked more strongly to wages. Have average salaries increase? Has the population suddenly increased? Are there more people than properties? The answers to all those are fairly obvious.

The only explanation one might reasonably use is that there are more renting than buying, but I believe this ratio is extremely elastic, as supply will simply rise to meet demand as it becomes easier and quicker to find tennants. Someone always owns the property. It could be that the banks have taken so many properties out of circulation that it has caused a temporary lack of supply, but with empty houses in the 60,000 territory there is plenty of potential supply.

In any case, rents will only rise or fall by small amounts IMO (without gov't interference). Likely cuts will cause rent reductions at the bottom of the market.

This 60,000 figure was put forward by the Lands and Valuations office. Building control did not believe it and challenged it. The only evidence that L&V had was they had stopped paying rates - go figure.

There is not 60,000 habitable houses available in NI. Just think about it this is almost 10% of the total housing stock.

Traditionally 60% to 70% of housing stock is in private ownership. I'm sure this does not equate directly to 60% of people or couples buying rather than rented, however there has to be some correlation. In recent years (4 to 5) increased numbers of people have either put off the decision to buy a house or give up on it altogether. Most of these couples/single people who 'should' have bought a house are now renting instead. Some stayed with mum.

This obviously increased the demand for rented property and there was a steady stream of BTL landlords to soak this up. Over the last 3 years I would say there have been very few new BTL purchases, whilst, at the same time there are 25,000 or so people turning 21 every year. Granted they don't all need a house, and those who do don't normally need a house each. But a fair proportion each year are added to the need a house (to rent or buy) list. If the numbers choosing to buy remains low then the numbers requiring a house to rent will continue to grow and increase further demand on the rental lists.

I am not aware of Banks evicting tenants and turning away money, even when they do take over the title of the property. From what I have heard, and read in here, to the annoyance of the poster, the banks are sitting on properties and renting them out rather than going down the route of fire sales.

To answer the questions you poses.

The population of NI is increasing, at a slow steady rate. More importantly the demographics are also changing in 3 major ways.

Firstly people are living longer so even if the population remained the same the longer span of life will require an increase in the introduction of new housing above the 'replacement level'. The length of time for a house to be returned or recirculated is increased.

Secondly, families are getting smaller so again, even if the population remained the same the number of housing units (either for purchase or renting) will be increased. (If you divide 1.8m by 2.4, you get 750,000. If you divide by 2.3 you will get 780,000. 30,000 more units)

Thirdly, (and something we benefit from) is divorce/separation. As we all know the % of family unit splitting up has increased greatly over the last 10 years. The implications for this are dramatic for the housing requirements of a country. When a family unit splits and children are involved, both parties now need to buy/rent (or be supplied by the taxpayer)at least a 2 bedroom housing unit. I cant remember the exact figures but instead of needing 4 housing units for four families we now need between five and six. Again this is a mixture of ownership or rental (predominately rental).

Put all this on top of a rising population and you have quite a multiplier of the additional housing unit demand, above the replacement for natural wastage (9,000 pa assuming an average 80 year house lifespan).

No there is not, never has been and never will be more houses than people. What there is is perhaps more people choosing to rent rather than buying as explained above. Most of us expect this to continue for a while.

So the answers are not always obvious. I believe average income has remained in and around the same but likely to fall.

You said it is easy to increase supply of housing for rental. Can you explain?

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Ghost estates?

There are around 720,000 houses in NI and 1,800,000 people. That's crude numbers and works out at roughly 2.5 people per housing unit. As people continue to live longer, get separated more often and whilst the overall population continues to grow, whilst families have fewer children the number of houses needed to house the people, in either the public, private or rental sectors will need to increase. A few 'ghost estates', in places people don't want to live, will not sort that.

There will never be more houses than people.

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This 60,000 figure was put forward by the Lands and Valuations office. Building control did not believe it and challenged it. The only evidence that L&V had was they had stopped paying rates - go figure.

There is not 60,000 habitable houses available in NI. Just think about it this is almost 10% of the total housing stock.

I said 60K empty house, the report states that typically this is normally around 30,000 (2005ish), with about 15,000 uninhabitable. So you are saying there has been a drastic increase in the number of people pretending the house is empty and not paying rates? Personally I believe the figure, having seen so many developed houses on sale for many years, just look at the pictures on property news. I'm sure the figure is always changing, but to assume its drastically incorrect is grasping at straws. In any case its a large amount of potential supply.

This obviously increased the demand for rented property and there was a steady stream of BTL landlords to soak this up. Over the last 3 years I would say there have been very few new BTL purchases, whilst, at the same time there are 25,000 or so people turning 21 every year. Granted they don't all need a house, and those who do don't normally need a house each. But a fair proportion each year are added to the need a house (to rent or buy) list. If the numbers choosing to buy remains low then the numbers requiring a house to rent will continue to grow and increase further demand on the rental lists.

You have to look at the population increase and take into account the deaths (or infirmaty) releasing housing, many of whom are single (one partner already having died). We are also not living longer and longer, the NHS and medical science has allowed us to increase our average life span but the maximum age has not increased significantly. Its not a simple thing, but one can view it as the average life span has taken a step increase. This means the populations takes a step increase, but once the new life span 'catches up' the population increase rate and housing demand rate could well decrease. Indeed politicians are worried about this as births tend to decline as populations get more comfortable, and the economic system needs more comming in at the bottom to pay the interest incurred by the previous generations fiat currency generation (borrowing).

You said it is easy to increase supply of housing for rental. Can you explain?

Just from empty housing, it becomes easier to rent out a property so more people will rather than just sit on it. Providing it is habitable of course, and that depends on what figures you believe. However I do agree that the uninhabitable portion will increase the longer they sit.

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  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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