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Realistbear

Time To Dump Sterling As Spotlight Switches From Dollar

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-18/pound-falls-against-dollar-before-osborne-spending-review-on-deficit-fears.html

U.K. Pound Falls Against Dollar Before Osborne Spending Review Wednesday
By Stephen Morris and Lucy Meakin - Oct 18, 2010 1:30 PM GMT+0100
The pound weakened against the dollar before Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne announces details of the coalition government’s spending cuts to tackle Britain’s record budget deficit this week.
Sterling fell against 13 of its 16 most-traded peers as some investors speculated the Chancellor’s cuts won’t reduce the deficit fast enough. The Centre for Economics and Business Research yesterday said the Bank of England will expand its debt-purchase stimulus program by 100 billion pounds ($160 billion) and keep its benchmark interest rate at a record low of 0.5 percent until at least late 2012 to bolster the economy.
The pound “is looking quite vulnerable,” said Jane Foley
, a senior foreign-exchange strategist at Rabobank International in London. “We’ve got the spending review on Wednesday, and what the market fears is that some of the cuts announced in the budget may be delayed and potentially it will take longer to cut down the deficit.”

Given that almost everything stands or falls on the direction of house prices I would tend to go along with Jane's assessment.

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The FTSE is looking forward to the cuts and remain in an upward trajectory:

FTSE 100 5745.49+0.74%

It may have to do with the greater profits companies will make with mass layoffs. But who then will be buying their products as Henry Ford once observed as the automated assmebly line promised an almost workerless manufacturing capability.

Edited by Realistbear

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The FTSE is looking forward to the cuts and remain in an upward trajectory:

FTSE 100 5745.49+0.74%

It may have to do with the greater profits companies will make with mass layoffs. But who then will be buying their products as Henry Ford once observed as the automated assmebly line promised an almost workerless manufacturing capability.

printy printy, you know it makes sense. Its not stocks or corn or gold rising its the sound of paper being flushed down the toilet.

Its a race you know, the winner gets a gold medal or is it a barrow full of paper? I can't quite recall.

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-18/pound-may-fall-to-1-5535-by-early-2011-on-quantitative-easing-bnp-says.html

The pound may decline to $1.5535 as investors anticipate further asset purchases, known as quantitative easing, by the Bank of England in early 2011, according to BNP Paribas SA.
“Wednesday’s Bank of England minutes will reveal the first steps towards further QE measures in the U.K.,” analysts led by Hans-Guenter Redeker in London wrote in a note to clients today. “Pound-dollar is already breaking lower through initial support and is now sitting on up trendline support at the $1.5835 level. A break below here will open downside pressure towards the $1.5535 area.”
The U.K. currency fell 0.6 percent to $1.5890 at 2.34 p.m. in London.
The Centre for Economics and Business Research yesterday said the Bank of England will expand its debt-purchase stimulus program by 100 billion pounds ($160 billion) and keep its benchmark interest rate at a record low of 0.5 percent until at least late 2012 to bolster the economy.

IIRC BNP about 6 months ago put the Pound at 1.35 late this year.

1 GBP 1.58828

Edited by Realistbear

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-18/pound-may-fall-to-1-5535-by-early-2011-on-quantitative-easing-bnp-says.html

The pound may decline to $1.5535 as investors anticipate further asset purchases, known as quantitative easing, by the Bank of England in early 2011, according to BNP Paribas SA.
“Wednesday’s Bank of England minutes will reveal the first steps towards further QE measures in the U.K.,” analysts led by Hans-Guenter Redeker in London wrote in a note to clients today. “Pound-dollar is already breaking lower through initial support and is now sitting on up trendline support at the $1.5835 level. A break below here will open downside pressure towards the $1.5535 area.”
The U.K. currency fell 0.6 percent to $1.5890 at 2.34 p.m. in London.
The Centre for Economics and Business Research yesterday said the Bank of England will expand its debt-purchase stimulus program by 100 billion pounds ($160 billion) and keep its benchmark interest rate at a record low of 0.5 percent until at least late 2012 to bolster the economy.

IIRC BNP about 6 months ago put the Pound at 1.35 late this year.

1 GBP 1.58828

Quite! The pound was supposed to fall through the floor and it hasn't. Pretty much holding its own at the mo. It could go either way on the glorious 20th depending on whether the FOREX markets think that slightly smaller cuts are actually a bad thing or not. In any case it's all going to be small scale movements within the boundaries of the sort of day-to-day fluctuations that are often impossible to explain convincingly anyway. No reason to drop Sterling or get your knickers in a twist.

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1 GBP= $1.58370 Euro =1.13785

Slipping a little this morning but not much.

I do not think we will see any significant move in Sterling until the HPC is locked in.* RM and Halifax are miles apart and that is the way the government want it--obfuscation.

*It locked in months ago, its just that the Estate Agents and banks do not want to reflect the true positon through their lies, damn lies and stats.

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1 GBP= $1.58370 Euro =1.13785

Slipping a little this morning but not much.

I do not think we will see any significant move in Sterling until the HPC is locked in.* RM and Halifax are miles apart and that is the way the government want it--obfuscation.

*It locked in months ago, its just that the Estate Agents and banks do not want to reflect the true positon through their lies, damn lies and stats.

Yep and that's a fall that will only come when we're all on what's left of the dole and get repossessed . Still, ultimately the dollar is heading for any even bigger fall if you ask me.

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1 GBP= $ 1.57900/ Euro 1.13400

Looks like that "technical support" level of 1.5835 has been well & truly breached.

Are the traders wondering if the recovereh is really locked in as the VIs have been claiming?

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1 GBP= $ 1.57900/ Euro 1.13400

Looks like that "technical support" level of 1.5835 has been well & truly breached.

Are the traders wondering if the recovereh is really locked in as the VIs have been claiming?

What's the difference between a flow trader and a prop trader? Which proportionately deals multiples of the other in the daily FX market? Why does the answer to these questions make the bit in bold a nonsense?

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  • 149 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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