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FTBers will get their chance if they keep saving and hold their fire. The FTBers strike has been the most effective way of bringing down prices. If there are no buyers at the bottom of the ladder then the ladder will eventually fall.

:rolleyes::rolleyes:

When I first started posting here on HPC - 6 years ago! - I said to all FTB's -- "DO NOT BUY; DO NOT FALL FOR THE GREATEST PYRAMID SCAM OF ALL TIME" [etc.]

:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes: I tried.... :rolleyes:

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When people can't get a mortgage for the overvalued property it's checkmate :-)

I woz going to make a stupid comment that involved shouting "house" but i won't :rolleyes:

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errr - don't forget to factor in affordable mortgage with interest rates back @ 10% within 2 yrs on a repayment mortgage in your coming offers!

Or you will find yourself in trouble pretty soon like a million+ others! :o

Edited by erranta
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The kick off will be the spending review, downhill all the way from there for the housing  "market " IMO.

... well we shall know what the spending review really contains within the next few days.

Basically the spending review comes down to one thing => cuts. The question is how deep would these cuts be, what areas and within what timeframe would they be implemented??? translation - how many 000's would loose out in the review and the wider economy and how would this translate to house prrice falls??

Something tells me, though, that this is not going to be the event that would make house prices go downhill "immediately"... although it's really the last throw of the dice...

I have said it before and got chewed out on here but I'd say it again: I just cannot see the Govt wanting a major dip or double dip occuring in 2012 (an olympic year).

Can't see it - there has to be a feel good factor entering that year or at least during that year. Point is whatever has to happen from this review 2011 is the year for it or 2013 and beyond.

You already saw with child benefits cuts - that it won't come in until 2013.. you may wonder why 2013.. I know why!!!!!

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Exactly! As soon as lovely old Mr Jones up the road dies and leaves his 3 bed semi to his kids, who all have partners and kids and mortgages of their own to worry about, that house is on the market and sold, possibly at auction for 50K less (if you're lucky) than the arbitrary amount you've chosen to hold out for. Bam! That's it. The "value" of your street has just dropped by 50K. Any estate agent or valuer will look at the last achieved price, and use that as their base line. Standing around wanting more will not get you any more, because no mortgage co. will now lend at that level.

Who will blink first? The kids of the dead guy, who don't give a sh!t about the old neighbours who refused to give their ball back. Payback is a bitch...

your wrong. ive seen what happens several times. they'll put it on the market at the prevailing overpriced amount for this area, then drop the price maybe 10% after 6 months, then finally take it off the market after a year and rent it out too some Polish/lithuanian/Latvian factory workers.

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The point you make is correct. There is a floor under house prices that is employment. House prices will only fall slowly / stagnate as long as mortgages are paid and there is no wave of repossesions. The boom is over though, make no mistake about that.

at last someone sensible. they'll just prop up employment with QE.

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I sold my house in July and went liquid.At the end of August I offered £115k for quite a neat little semi detached bungalow that was on the market at £129,950.The bid was rejected.Last month it had the "SOLD" board up.Last week it went back on sale,possibly cold feet after the 3.6% drop.I am now wondering whether to go back in at £115k.It's on sale by the family of the late owner.

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just a thought for the day for all you HPC dreamers. unless there's a catalyst, as someone on here said, to force people into accepting a lower price compared to there mate bob next door who sold in 2007 for X, who will sell for less? i know from my own standpoint that i need to get a certain amount of capital from my current home in order to be able to afford the trade up we want, ergo, i aint gonna be the one to take the hit and then pay top dollar on the next property.

It's an argument used by a lot of property bulls to attack the notion of further drops. What I'd suggest you consider is that this has always been true. Why did we just go through a property crash if sellers could stop it by holding out, why have we gone through a number of crashes before? People who want to sell can hold out, but generally they won't do it forever.

If you wanted to sell your current property because your work location changed, it was insufficient for your family size, it was too large for you to maintain etc then you have a motivation to sell. Chances are you could afford to lose 5-10% of the property value, it then comes down to how much your willing to do to avoid it.

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It's an argument used by a lot of property bulls to attack the notion of further drops. What I'd suggest you consider is that this has always been true. Why did we just go through a property crash if sellers could stop it by holding out, why have we gone through a number of crashes before? People who want to sell can hold out, but generally they won't do it forever.

If you wanted to sell your current property because your work location changed, it was insufficient for your family size, it was too large for you to maintain etc then you have a motivation to sell. Chances are you could afford to lose 5-10% of the property value, it then comes down to how much your willing to do to avoid it.

im not adverse to loosing 5-10%, but only if i can drop the next one by as much, and there in lies the problem. most people further up the ladder are better off than those lower down, so can hold out for that extra 5-10%, and if there not well dont worry the BOE will hold interest rates at 0.5% for ever an a day.

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What keeps me 'dreaming' is the fact that people often have to sell - death, divorce, birth, new job, finances.

People, on the other hand never have to buy - they'll just rent. Indeed they are doing and rental demand is going up.

Even if buyers want to buy then they can't get the money to match the prices.

There's a bit of a stalemate now, yes, but sellers will almost certainly blink first.

Not as long as buyers who won't or can't buy pay high rents.

Staying out of the market and paying someone a high rent is worse than useless - it perpetuates the market and high prices.

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The FTBers strike has been the most effective way of bringing down prices.

Not where I live it hasn't.

If there are no buyers at the bottom of the ladder then the ladder will eventually fall.

Not if they keep someone else in the market by paying them a high rent. The market doesn't care who owns the house - as long as the mortgage is paid. And if buyers priced out of the market pay someone else a high rent enabling them to stay in the market, then stalemate ensues.

Which is what we have here.

Edited by Let's get it right
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atm the prevailing wind is blowing dust squarely in the faces of sellers so my guess is that they'll blink first. There's also a massive dust storm on the horizon so in short, more dust and more blinking.

i recon they'll just close the front door and go and watch Eastenders, while the for sale board slowly falls down.

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i recon they'll just close the front door and go and watch Eastenders, while the for sale board slowly falls down.

A friend recently lost his job at £70k p.a. Because of a divorce he needs to remortgage and has £180k cash against a £400k property. He has turned 60 and can take his pension of around £25k p.a. Bank says No.

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im not adverse to loosing 5-10%, but only if i can drop the next one by as much, and there in lies the problem. most people further up the ladder are better off than those lower down, so can hold out for that extra 5-10%, and if there not well dont worry the BOE will hold interest rates at 0.5% for ever an a day.

:lol:

Why not go for the guy at the other end of the chain? Why do you assume he deserves to get full price and that the FTB should pay up to support the entire chain?

You're so close to having a eureka moment! Keep thinking. You can do it!

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The would be FTBs not participating now, and for the last 2 years, do not seem to have much affect on the market.

It has.

It has made the market stagnant. That means desparate people will have to lower prices or rent out their house.

I know of one person who has had to move and is trying to rent out a place. I believe the market rent values will only just cover the mortgage. I'm hoping they sell, even if it is at a loss as I think it will be the most sensible thing to do. After all having lived in a place for 5 or so years is worth about £20k anyway ( that's what it would have costed to rent in an equivalent place ) and I believe there will still be equity left.

To much renting means people then consider renting, I don't think we are at the tipping point yet though. These things happen slowly as the amounts of money are huge to most people ( to me anyway ).

Edited by SomethingHasToGive
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A friend recently lost his job at £70k p.a. Because of a divorce he needs to remortgage and has £180k cash against a £400k property. He has turned 60 and can take his pension of around £25k p.a. Bank says No.

good pension no doubt index linked.

he is looking to borrow 220K which is over 8 times his salary

not a chance - I am surprised he asked - no wonder the bank said no.

of course if he was on pension credit he would get the interest paid on 200K ad infinitum.

be a blinker and sell the place and downsize paying cash. He could live comfortably on that pension :) and NO mortgage

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After all having lived in a place for 5 or so years is worth about £20k anyway ( that's what it would have costed to rent in an equivalent place ) and I believe there will still be equity left.

I am sure you mean well but that is a nonsense comment. the mortgage interest, capital opportunity on equity, and maintenance typically equal more or less the rental costs, at least, typically, so they have not'saved' on rent at all. But most people don't get this.

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I am sure you mean well but that is a nonsense comment. the mortgage interest, capital opportunity on equity, and maintenance typically equal more or less the rental costs, at least, typically, so they have not'saved' on rent at all. But most people don't get this.

With rental costs being £600-800 per month and no significant home improvements in 5 years I think my maths is roughly correct. renting would have cost somewhere between £30-45k whereas about £35-45k was paid into the mortgage, some of which went on interest. It depends exactly on the interest payments and the opportunity cost of capital.

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  • 433 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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