Who Will Blink First?

[cypher007]

just a thought for the day for all you HPC dreamers. unless there's a catalyst, as someone on here said, to force people into accepting a lower price compared to there mate bob next door who sold in 2007 for X, who will sell for less? i know from my own standpoint that i need to get a certain amount of capital from my current home in order to be able to afford the trade up we want, ergo, i aint gonna be the one to take the hit and then pay top dollar on the next property.

[pandora's box]

just a thought for the day for all you HPC dreamers. unless there's a catalyst, as someone on here said, to force people into accepting a lower price compared to there mate bob next door who sold in 2007 for X, who will sell for less? i know from my own standpoint that i need to get a certain amount of capital from my current home in order to be able to afford the trade up we want, ergo, i aint gonna be the one to take the hit and then pay top dollar on the next property.

stalemate

[catmandu]

just a thought for the day for all you HPC dreamers. unless there's a catalyst, as someone on here said, to force people into accepting a lower price compared to there mate bob next door who sold in 2007 for X, who will sell for less? i know from my own standpoint that i need to get a certain amount of capital from my current home in order to be able to afford the trade up we want, ergo, i aint gonna be the one to take the hit and then pay top dollar on the next property.

Your (and other people's) view on how much they need to get for their property is not all that relevant - yes there are plenty people who will refuse to move until they can get a certain amount. But there are plenty who are motivated to move, and it is they who determine the market. There are times when few properties are on the market, but that can't be sustained for long - people always NEED to move. Besides, it you're trading up then you could easily knock 50% off your property as long as you can get 50% off your next property. It's those who are trading down who lose in that situation.

Ultimately you can stand on the sidelines and watch the market, but don't think for a minute that you can control the market by not participating.

[Kyoto]

just a thought for the day for all you HPC dreamers. unless there's a catalyst, as someone on here said, to force people into accepting a lower price compared to there mate bob next door who sold in 2007 for X, who will sell for less? i know from my own standpoint that i need to get a certain amount of capital from my current home in order to be able to afford the trade up we want, ergo, i aint gonna be the one to take the hit and then pay top dollar on the next property.

What keeps me 'dreaming' is the fact that people often have to sell - death, divorce, birth, new job, finances.

People, on the other hand never have to buy - they'll just rent. Indeed they are doing and rental demand is going up.

Even if buyers want to buy then they can't get the money to match the prices.

There's a bit of a stalemate now, yes, but sellers will almost certainly blink first.

[pandora's box]

don't think for a minute that you can control the market by not participating.

Of course you can, if there are enough of you.

And there are.

[Misanthrope]

just a thought for the day for all you HPC dreamers. unless there's a catalyst, as someone on here said, to force people into accepting a lower price compared to there mate bob next door who sold in 2007 for X, who will sell for less? i know from my own standpoint that i need to get a certain amount of capital from my current home in order to be able to afford the trade up we want, ergo, i aint gonna be the one to take the hit and then pay top dollar on the next property.

What you need is of absolutely no interest to me. What matters for me is whether there is value at a certain price point for what you offer. I'm not here to facilitate you to a better life, as you see it. So, you will not trade up on my account. You are stuck where you are. If you want more than you have, then you will have to find alternative means to do it. The days of property, as a gross form of redistributive wealth, are well and truly over.

[Number79]

What keeps me 'dreaming' is the fact that people often have to sell - death, divorce, birth, new job, finances.

People, on the other hand never have to buy - they'll just rent. Indeed they are doing and rental demand is going up.

Even if buyers want to buy then they can't get the money to match the prices.

There's a bit of a stalemate now, yes, but sellers will almost certainly blink first.

Agree with this but another problem adding to the stalemate is that point 2 affects everyone. Sellers are holding out because they can't afford to take the hit because they can't borrow any more either.

I think that anyone struggling to buy or sell a first home is stuck but the market for bigger family homes is almost self feeding at the moment. Boomers are downsizing to medium homes and families are buying the larger boomer houses.

[pandora's box]

Even if buyers want to buy then they can't get the money to match the prices.

There's a bit of a stalemate now, yes, but sellers will almost certainly blink first.

The government will blink first.

After being stared out by the property developers.

[Number79]

but don't think for a minute that you can control the market by not participating.

Is that not exactly what is happening? Those not buying are not participating and it is having an affect.

[LuckyOne]

Of course you can, if there are enough of you.

And there are.

Are you talking about buyers or sellers?

The fact that sales volumes are way down and supply is increasing seems to suggest that there are proportionally more buyers are on strike than sellers.

[pandora's box]

Are you talking about buyers or sellers?

Both - hence the stalemate.

There is so little activity that government intervention is inevitable.

[Number79]

Both - hence the stalemate.

There is so little activity that government intervention is inevitable.

It all depends on the banks and intervention won't change that.

Interest rates are as low as they are going.

If banks wont lend then prices will have to fall to break the stalemate, but they will have to fall at every level.

[pandora's box]

It all depends on the banks and intervention won't change that.

Interest rates are as low as they are going.

If banks wont lend then prices will have to fall to break the stalemate, but they will have to fall at every level.

But if banks won't lend, then they go bust, then the government will have to 'intervene'.

[cypher007]

What you need is of absolutely no interest to me. What matters for me is whether there is value at a certain price point for what you offer. I'm not here to facilitate you to a better life, as you see it. So, you will not trade up on my account. You are stuck where you are. If you want more than you have, then you will have to find alternative means to do it. The days of property, as a gross form of redistributive wealth, are well and truly over.

i think you misunderstand me. say the gap between my 3 bed semi and the 4 bed detached we want has historically been X, why should i drop my price just to help some FTB who cant be arsed to save a decent deposit. only then for us to use all of our savings plus a new mortgage to buy the 4 bed detached ?

[Lambie]

just a thought for the day for all you HPC dreamers. unless there's a catalyst, as someone on here said, to force people into accepting a lower price compared to there mate bob next door who sold in 2007 for X, who will sell for less? i know from my own standpoint that i need to get a certain amount of capital from my current home in order to be able to afford the trade up we want, ergo, i aint gonna be the one to take the hit and then pay top dollar on the next property.

The entire mortgage system may be legally unenforceable

hows that for a catalyst

[pandora's box]

i think you misunderstand me. say the gap between my 3 bed semi and the 4 bed detached we want has historically been X, why should i drop my price just to help some FTB who cant be arsed to save a decent deposit. only then for us to use all of our savings plus a new mortgage to buy the 4 bed detached ?

How long you prepared to wait, bud?

[Misanthrope]

Both - hence the stalemate.

There is so little activity that government intervention is inevitable.

You, my friend, appear to have been beguiled by the fraud of previous Labour thinking.

There is no scope for the current Government to advance subsidy to the rotten black hole of a housing market in this country, given the economic requirement. Any attempt to hold up this shambolic concept of an economic driver now, will only result in lost opportunity and future despair. Third world Britain. Which, for a country spoilt by standards unearned, will be a genuine culture shock.

I earnestly recommend that, in the future, you do NOT rely on your meagre shelter for your future prosperity. I can assure you, bricks don't taste that good!

[Number79]

But if banks won't lend, then they go bust, then the government will have to 'intervene'.

I dont mean banks not lending at all but not lending at risk.

Even at the worst point so far someone with a 40% deposit could get a mortgage anywhere. Banks will always lend but I dont see them falling over themselves to lend for over priced houses to people that do not have a big enough cash cushion to protect the bank.

[thecrashingisles]

i think you misunderstand me. say the gap between my 3 bed semi and the 4 bed detached we want has historically been X, why should i drop my price just to help some FTB who cant be arsed to save a decent deposit. only then for us to use all of our savings plus a new mortgage to buy the 4 bed detached ?

The gap between your 3 bed semi and the 4 bed detached you want has historically been X. It's now 2X thanks to house price inflation and you're worse off than you would be if house prices halved across the board.

[cypher007]

It all depends on the banks and intervention won't change that.

Interest rates are as low as they are going.

If banks wont lend then prices will have to fall to break the stalemate, but they will have to fall at every level.

no. the boomers and the mortgage free will just take the house off the market if it doesnt sell. which will ristrict supply again. what we need is normal interest rates to return.

[pandora's box]

I dont mean banks not lending at all but not lending at risk.

Even at the worst point so far someone with a 40% deposit could get a mortgage anywhere.

40% deposit is an arbitrary figure. A couple of years ago it was 0%.

Banks don't want to lend against houses. Full stop.

[MississippiJohnHurt]

Both - hence the stalemate.

There is so little activity that government intervention is inevitable.

What would you like the government to do? Maybe they could pass a new law so that it's illegal to pay more than 5% under 2007 prices? Or they could force the banks to offer mortgages at 5% deposits? No, I got it now - they could lower interest rates to historic lows . Oh, hang on.

Or maybe the people could do it themselves, homeowners turned price stabilising militia. Whole streets, towns, counties could get together and agree not to sell below peak price. They could have their own website, and special logo, and they could get together and agree on sanctions for those who break ranks. It could work. As long as there were regular patrols.

Edited October 15, 2010 by FallingKnife

[cypher007]

The gap between your 3 bed semi and the 4 bed detached you want has historically been X. It's now 2X thanks to house price inflation and you're worse off than you would be if house prices halved across the board.

what i meant by historically was the last 4 years, but yes i agree, which is why i yurn for a HPC.

[Aidan Ap Word]

i think you misunderstand me. say the gap between my 3 bed semi and the 4 bed detached we want has historically been X, why should i drop my price just to help some FTB who cant be arsed to save a decent deposit. only then for us to use all of our savings plus a new mortgage to buy the 4 bed detached ?

The gap between the nominal price of house at level x and the nominal price of the house at level x+1 has always been a proportion of the average price of the average house at level x. The size of the proportion *does* change, yes. But it is always a proportion and average expectations in the housing market are always related to one another. And demographics will have an effect (esp: regional demographics).

What part of twice the gross annual salary is *not* a 'decent deposit'?

Insensitivity is one thing ... even forgivable. But insensitivity with a self-obsessed rudeness is quite another.

And the FTB is pouring all his savings into buying a 'house' (and a slave-box at that!).

Don't forget that you are living off the fruits of the QE (at 000s of GBP for every single human in this country) ... the FTBs aren't ... the prospective FTBer of today is facing the tax cost of QE (just like you) ... but doesn't live on the 'benefit' of the re-inflated bubble of MEW-ing joviality the smug muppets who think they are superior because they have signed mortgage deals when they were 2-a-penny.

Aidanapword

[pandora's box]

You, my friend, appear to have been beguiled by the fraud of previous Labour thinking.

There is no scope for the current Government to advance subsidy to the rotten black hole of a housing market in this country, given the economic requirement. Any attempt to hold up this shambolic concept of an economic driver now, will only result in lost opportunity and future despair. Third world Britain. Which, for a country spoilt by standards unearned, will be a genuine culture shock.

I earnestly recommend that, in the future, you do NOT rely on your meagre shelter for your future prosperity. I can assure you, bricks don't taste that good!

I'm way ahead of you fella.

There is no scope for the government (of any colour) to subsidise 'the rotten black hole of a housing market in this country'. But that won't prevent them from trying.

They have no choice.