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exiges

Rightmove - Call The Result

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Rightmove figures are out next week, what do you reckon we'll see.

Given we've had 3 falls in a row, I reckon we're due a +0.2% before seeing more falls in following months.

Previous months were:

Sep 19, 2010 : -1.1%

Aug 15, 2010 : -1.7%

Jul 18, 2010: -0.6%

Edited by exiges

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Rightmove figures are out next week, what do you reckon we'll see.

Given we've had 3 falls in a row, I reckon we're due a +0.2% before seeing more falls in following months.

Previous months were:

Sep 19, 2010 : -1.1%

Aug 15, 2010 : -1.7%

Jul 18, 2010: -0.6%

-2%

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Rightmove figures are out next week, what do you reckon we'll see.

Given we've had 3 falls in a row, I reckon we're due a +0.2% before seeing more falls in following months.

Previous months were:

Sep 19, 2010 : -1.1%

Aug 15, 2010 : -1.7%

Jul 18, 2010: -0.6%

-0.9% and thus showing a slowing in the rate of the 'softening' of prices and therefore sure fire evidence that we have turned a corner and prices will be rising xsquillion% by the traditionally busy (for house buying) winter months.

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-4.7%

Haha no chance.

>1% I'm afraid.

Anything less that a 0.2% rise will put the index negative YoY.

This index has NEVER shown a negative figure for October, I assume because it's not seasonally adjusted and it's showing the Semptember buying season. So don't get disheartened when it's up.

Heres the figures for previous Octobers:

02 2.7%

03 3.3%

04 0.6%

05 0.5%

06 DATA MISSING! (link to 05 report)

07 2.7%

08 1.0%

09 2.8%

Even in the weak year of 2008 it still showed a 1% rise. So even a small rise would be bearish.

Edited by Pent Up

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I'm expecting a big drop soon, all new listings have to compete with the unsold properties that have reduced their asking prices. Especially empty (really want to sell) properties.

We went through a stupid phase earlier this year with asking prices way overvalue, 10-20% over, I think this is coming to an end now and this overvalue needs to come off then add on the more recent drops. It will catch up in a massive drop soon....soooooon.

I feel the need to post this somewhere, was on for £365,000 in July. 3 Bed semi now on at £310,000. To be realistic should be £280k now, less later.

Edited by Papa Serf

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seeing as no-one else has

ASKING PRICES ARE COMPLETELY IRRELEVANT

They are relevent to the delusion of the sellers and to properties we can buy, which is why very little is selling.

When prices drop and houses sell only then will we see the haliwide stats lower.

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seeing as no-one else has

ASKING PRICES ARE COMPLETELY IRRELEVANT

Only when they're going up. When they're coming down it's a 'leading indicator'.

Sadly, part of me actually agree with what I've just typed, but I find it hard to shake my puppy-ish optimism.

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They are relevent to the delusion of the sellers and to properties we can buy, which is why very little is selling.

When prices drop and houses sell only then will we see the haliwide stats lower.

Agree.

Asking prices are all part of the vendors' mentality and sentiment - when they see that fall alongside Haliwide stats, we'll hopefully see things gather pace...

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Yes, we're all hoping for a negative figure, but to be honest Forex Factory make predictions for each house price indicator and they end up looking foolish when the figure is published and is totally different. How many of us really expected -3.6% from Halifax?

An alternative idea would be predicting the spin MSM are going to put on any negative / hype-up any positive.

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The other asking price index (HAPI) showeed a positive figure a few days ago, and they look at all prices, not just new instructions.

I'd be quite surprised by a MoM negative this time, though a small one would be very welcome in terms of sentiment.

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Based on the properties types that I watch there have been 5-10% drops in an awful lot of properties. I don't know if these being more expensive further skew the market?

Drops don't count towards the Rightmove index, they just use the "First advertised at" price, which is very misleading IMO

I wish someone at Rightmove could do an index of price changes.

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Drops don't count towards the Rightmove index, they just use the "First advertised at" price, which is very misleading IMO

I wish someone at Rightmove could do an index of price changes.

Really?! That changes everything. I guess in a falling market a lot of sellers would start high and lower the price gradually, to find the market. And give the appearance of a "discounted bargain". I would, I think. (Well, actually i would do some research on "sales techniques" before, but I don't think many sellers do that.)

.

Edited by Tired of Waiting

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Anecdotal alert!!! This will have absolutely no bearing on this months figure, but i have noticed a distinct downward trend in my local area.

Everyday i manage to find a quiet couple of minutes and do a 24 hour search on Coventry: (houses / this area only) no resriction on bedrooms / price.

As well as having a regular nosey at what proerty bee tells me, i work out what is the median price of the days offerings.

There has been a downward trend over the last 3 months or so. The median always used to be in the £150k area. Not a straight line fall, but that figure has steadily declined and regualrly shows £135k now.

(Note, this is not scientific - it has been as low as £120k, today it is £140k - monday mornings are the most volatile because they usually have to catch up with the weekends instructions - hence fewer properties make the median more volatile)

Putting on peter snow voice - If we see this swing repeated across the country there would literally be a bull cull, turning every area of the map into negative equity with a total swing of 7% from the last months report.

In truth, I will stick my neck out and say -1.7%. But those people that say the rightmove figure is irrelevant - they are correct, because its a million miles removed from reality. The only time we should pay attention to Rightmove will be when the fear sets in and we get an insight into the panic of sellers.

Edited by Caveat Mortgagor

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I see -1.5%+ has one third of the votes now. There will be lots of dissapointed people Monday morning. This index has NEVER falling in Octobler EVER! Not even 2008! Would be great to see a fall but It will be positive.

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I see -1.5%+ has one third of the votes now. There will be lots of dissapointed people Monday morning. This index has NEVER falling in Octobler EVER! Not even 2008! Would be great to see a fall but It will be positive.

Rightmove in the morning folks at 7 am.

Let's see if Pent Up is right above - sounds as though a negative on this will be very significant.

Fingers crossed!

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I see -1.5%+ has one third of the votes now. There will be lots of dissapointed people Monday morning. This index has NEVER falling in Octobler EVER! Not even 2008! Would be great to see a fall but It will be positive.

The average since 2002 is 1.9% and the lowest it's ever been is 0.5%, so really anything between 0.5% and 1.0% would be good.

Anything less than 0.5% would be a right result.

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  • 260 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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