Is Inflation Under Control?

[Pluto]

GAS >>> HIGHER!

PETROL>>>HIGHER!

INSURANCE COSTS>>>HIGHER!

ELECTRICITY>>>>>HIGHER!

Does anyone have any idea what inflation is going to look like in six months?

Oh, and the government tells us they are not ruling out an interest cut before the end of the year!

Hilarious! Interest rates will be at 5% very soon...

[farmerdring]

GAS >>> HIGHER!

PETROL>>>HIGHER!

INSURANCE COSTS>>>HIGHER!

ELECTRICITY>>>>>HIGHER!

Does anyone have any idea what inflation is going to look like in six months?

Oh, and the government tells us they are not ruling out an interest cut before the end of the year!

Hilarious!  Interest rates will be at 5% very soon...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

energy is getting expensive.

this results in price jumps across the board. this is not necessarily inflation.

[CrashConnoisseur]

Does anyone have any idea what inflation is going to look like in six months? [Pluto]

I don't know, but I suspect we'll see a 'surprise' rise above market expectations.

Interest rates will be at 5% very soon... [Pluto]

Or Brown will reset the inflation target to 3% in order to accommodate the 'temporary blip in oil prices' (due to Hurricane Katrina / nasty speculators / Iraqi insurgents, etc.).

Edited September 9, 2005 by Jeff Ross

[IPOD]

energy is getting expensive.

this results in price jumps across the board. this is not necessarily inflation.

What else would you call an increase in the general price level (via second-round effects from increased input prices) but inflation, Farmerdring? Are we suddenly going to exclude everyday items from the inflation index simply because the price is not going in the direction we want it to? Oh, silly me, I forgot, the government has already done this with house prices so why not everything else. Soon it will be known as the cost-of-living index excluding the cost of living.

[BuyingBear]

GAS >>> HIGHER!

PETROL>>>HIGHER!

INSURANCE COSTS>>>HIGHER!

ELECTRICITY>>>>>HIGHER!

Does anyone have any idea what inflation is going to look like in six months?

Oh, and the government tells us they are not ruling out an interest cut before the end of the year!

Hilarious!  Interest rates will be at 5% very soon...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You forgot council tax, not that it matters, along with most of the above they don't bother measuring it.

Provided tacky TV sets and DVD players don't rise in price too much the inflation target will be always as sanguine.

[farmerdring]

What else would you call an increase in the general price level

i would call it an increase in many prices resulting from an increase in a primary commodity.

i would not call it inflation just - yet.

[farmerdring]

it all depends on what the reaction to the price increases is.

[Bear Goggles]

Or Brown will reset the inflation target to 3% in order to accommodate the 'temporary blip in oil prices' (due to Hurricane Katrina / nasty speculators / Iraqi insurgents, etc.).

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I wouldn't put it past him. But what would be the implications of him doing this? I personally would take it as a signal that the government is planning to inflate the debt away and would move as much money out of sterling as possible.

But would shifting the target by 1% be enough to sink the pound? If it is then it would just increase inflation more!

It's not unlikely that we will breach 3% CPI within 6 months

[IPOD]

what would be the implications of him doing this?

If Grabber Gordon moved the inflation target to 3% (ie signalling to the BOE that higher levels of inflation will be tolerated than before) there would likely be a huge sell-off in the bond markets (including government debt) as the fixed-income streams from these instruments would be worth less in real terms. This would make it much more expensive for the government to issue debt in the capital markets (ie borrow to fund yet more hideously overpaid public sector workers [see Dog's Tax Abuses thread]) and could very well be the final nail in this house price bubble's coffin.

Edited September 9, 2005 by IPOD

[the end is a bit nigher]

the fat **** (i starred that to save the moderator a job) has already started fudging the figures withthe re-definition of the economic cycle - it will get worse and worse as it always does under labour - soon the unions will be threatening strikes unless they get massive pay rises and we will end up back in the same mess as per all labour governments - it will then takes 10 years of hardship to sort the mess out again

[right_freds_dead]

labour have a long standing reputation for economic mishandling and losing control of inflation.

and here we are once again.........despite all the silly little pledges and sound bites.

oasis cant help them now.

[Guest Charlie The Tramp]

labour have a long standing reputation for economic mishandling and losing control of inflation.and here we are once again.........despite all the silly little pledges and sound bites.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Heath 1970 to 1974

1974 16.0% 6.6

1973 9.2% 7.7

1972 7.1% 8.4

1971 9.4% 8.9

1970 6.4% 9.8

Thatcher 1979 to 1990

1990 9.5% 1.4

1989 7.8% 1.6

1988 4.9% 1.7

1987 4.2% 1.8

1986 3.4% 1.9

1985 6.1% 1.9

1984 5.0% 2.0

1983 4.6% 2.1

1982 8.6% 2.2

1981 11.9% 2.4

1980 18.0% 2.7

1979 13.4% 3.2

Major 1990 to 1997

1997 3.1% 1.2

1996 2.4% 1.2

1995 3.5% 1.2

1994 2.4% 1.3

1993 1.6% 1.3

1992 3.7% 1.3

1991 5.9% 1.4

1990 9.5% 1.4

[right_freds_dead]

any labour stats for 1974 - 1979 - ?

for mr calor gas's term.

Edited September 9, 2005 by right_freds_dead

[Guest Charlie The Tramp]

any labour stats for 1974 - 1979 - ?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

1979 13.4% 3.2

1978 8.3% 3.6

1977 15.8% 3.9

1976 16.5% 4.6

1975 24.2% 5.3

1974 16.0% 6.6

1970 6.4% 9.8

1969 5.4% 10

1968 4.7% 11

1967 2.5% 11

1966 3.9% 12

1965 4.8% 12

1964 3.3% 13

[birdie]

Since it seems that the powers-that-be seem to be starting to finally acknowledge that house prices will not continue to rocket upwards, this proposal will probably go ahead after all…

The Fry Group

One way for Brown to keep to his Target.

[right_freds_dead]

nasty. those were the days.

id ask for new lab stats, but they are corrupt by exclusion of major sources of inflation on the pocket. so pointless. i still cant believe this was allowed.

i think im now going to go and devalue a cup of tea.....

[Guest Charlie The Tramp]

id ask for new lab stats, but they are corrupt by exclusion of major sources of inflation on the pocket. so pointless. i still cant believe this was allowed.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well you might just like to see Gordon`s so called economic miracle fred.

2003 2.9% 1.0

2002 1.7% 1.0

2001 1.8% 1.0

2000 3.0% 1.1

1999 1.5% 1.1

1998 3.4% 1.1

1997 3.1% 1.2

[Veritas]

GAS >>> HIGHER!

PETROL>>>HIGHER!

INSURANCE COSTS>>>HIGHER!

ELECTRICITY>>>>>HIGHER!

Expect these four "non-essential" items to be substituted in the Inflation basket of goods with:

1. Slimline DVD player £22 - Tesco

2. 14" col TV £45 - ASDA

3. Easyjet/Ryanair flight north direction only January 99p

4. Computer Printer £29 - PC World

That nifty switch will soon bring the headline figure below 2% again, ergo another interest rate cut to keep the plates spinning a little longer.

[right_freds_dead]

the 'miracle' does look good on paper.

we have a paper tiger economy.

[Pluto]

GAS >>> HIGHER!

PETROL>>>HIGHER!

INSURANCE COSTS>>>HIGHER!

ELECTRICITY>>>>>HIGHER!

Expect these four "non-essential" items to be substituted in the Inflation basket of goods with:

1. Slimline DVD player £22 - Tesco

2. 14" col TV £45 - ASDA

3. Easyjet/Ryanair flight north direction only January 99p

4. Computer Printer £29 - PC World

That nifty switch will soon bring the headline figure below 2% again, ergo another interest rate cut to keep the plates spinning a little longer.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Inflation is under control; just like Iraq is under control.

The government is busy as we speak trying to figure out a way to keep this Ponzi scheme going.

Reduce Interest Rates?..yeah, yeah, Brilliant!

[Bee Bear]

Since it seems that the powers-that-be seem to be starting to finally acknowledge that house prices will not continue to rocket upwards, this proposal will probably go ahead after all…

The Fry Group

One way for Brown to keep to his Target.   

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

This give pause for thought and would be a good way to reduce the appearance of inflation:

"....if house prices are falling then the effect of including them in the CPI would be to make the inflation target lower, thus lowering interest rates. "

Of course if they had included house prices originally they would have had to raise interest rates ages ago and put a brake on the runaway train of HPI. But no! Had to play it sly. Grrrrr! :angry:

Edited September 10, 2005 by Bee Bear

[Sledgehead]

this results in price jumps across the board. this is not necessarily inflation.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So when do price increases across the board become inflation to you?

It's quite clear that "inflation" is now to housing what "earnings" were to stocks in 2000.

Instead of a common sense definition based on purchasing power, we have entered the murky waters of hedonic adjustment, and presumably, soon to come wage settlement determined inflation. This is as barmy as talking about earning before tax, depreciation and amortisation of goodwill. Smoke and mirrors, all designed to hide the fact that things no longer add up.

Explain yourself.

Edited September 10, 2005 by Sledgehead

[BuyingBear]

Inflation is under control; just like Iraq is under control.

The government is busy as we speak trying to figure out a way to keep this Ponzi scheme going. 

Reduce Interest Rates?..yeah, yeah, Brilliant!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Brown today announced a pilot of the International Finance Facility, whilst no doubt noble in its aims, it's not difficult to contrast with ignoble housing market, it's basically mortgaging the developing world's future in the same vain as the financing of NetworkRail.

It's basically a PFI, completely off-balance sheet, you spent money on aid now and our aid budget has to pay the principle off plus interest for the next 30 years. I can see Brown's predicament, how to spend more on aid whilst keeping the liabilites off the books, anything helps at the moment when it comes to the Golden Rule, filling in potholes in the road is now classed as investment, not a running cost, that's how petty it has become.

If we're to spend 0.7% of GDP on aid then I'd rather see it spent on good works than paying back interest, and god knows what level that could be in three decades.

Who is going to explain in 2015 that we're unable to vaccinate everyone we wanted to because the aid budget is now diverted into servicing old debts?

What a sad predicament we're in

[Sledgehead]

Brown today announced a pilot of the International Finance Facility, whilst no doubt noble in its aims, it's not difficult to contrast with ignoble housing market, it's basically mortgaging the developing world's future in the same vain as the financing of NetworkRail.

It's basically a PFI, completely off-balance sheet, you spent money on aid now and our aid budget has to pay the principle off plus interest for the next 30 years. I can see Brown's predicament, how to spend more on aid whilst keeping the liabilites off the books, anything helps at the moment when it comes to the Golden Rule, filling in potholes in the road is now classed as investment, not a running cost, that's how petty it has become.

If we're to spend 0.7% of GDP on aid then I'd rather see it spent on good works than paying back interest, and god knows what level that could be in three decades.

Who is going to explain in 2015 that we're unable to vaccinate everyone we wanted to because the aid budget is now diverted into servicing old debts?

What a sad predicament we're in 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Absolutely!

Is there nobody's future this man will not borrow / have borrowings made against just to keep liquidity going.

So we have mortgaged futures for :

Third World (International Finance Facility) - more aid now, paid for tomorrow

Public Spending (PFI/PPP) - more investment in public works now, paid for tomorrow

Retirement (£5bn tax robbery pa of pension funds) - more tax revenue for more public sector jobs now, paid for tomorrow

Students (Student Loans) - more education now, paid for tomorrow

Key Workers (Shared ownership) - more home ownership now, paid for tomorrow

Housing (Mortgages) - ditto, paid for tomorrow

In short:

Britain - a better, easier life now, paid for tomorrow

[Pluto]

It looks like inflation is going up by at least 0.3% this week to 2.6%. This is the worse possible news for housing bulls.

Almost a zero chance of a rate cut and a 80% chance of a rate hike.

We'll soon have interest rates over 5% which - will - cause a major sell off in housing.

Can you smell NEGATIVE EQUITY? I can - and so should you!