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LuckyOne

Coming Soon To A Market Near You ....

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In California, there is already a two tiered pricing system in the market :

- Non-distressed sales are taking place at about 30% below peak prices.

- Distressed sales are taking place at about 50% below peak prices.

Given all the uncertainty about title and the ability to actually transfer ownership in the US, I can see a third tier developing :

- Sales of non-mortgaged properties where the legal transfer of title can be assured might start to trade at 15% below peak prices.

It would be nice if the prudent are actually rewarded.

If the UK property market starts to fall harder and reposessions start to gather pace, it will be interesting to see whether this two (and possibly three) tiered market evolves along the same lines in the UK as it has in the US. It remains to be see whether the "passing of the parcel" of mortgage debts through RMBS etc in the UK was a bit more robust than it was in the US. Given that it was generally the same gang of global investment banks which sponsored the vehicles on both sides of the Atlantic, I expect some of the problems to also appear in the UK if the market becomes stressed.

Edit : I really need to get used to my California keyboard. My UK one is much better.

Edited by LuckyOne

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I downloaded the Case Shiller index and was AMAZED that they seem to have had a BOUNCE just like us.

Not sure if REPOSESSIONS are excluded like with our LAND REG figures.

PS the 10 or 20 city index includes LA SF and San DIeago

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I downloaded the Case Shiller index and was AMAZED that they seem to have had a BOUNCE just like us.

Not sure if REPOSESSIONS are excluded like with our LAND REG figures.

PS the 10 or 20 city index includes LA SF and San DIeago

My local market in Riverside County in California (where I spend about 3 months a year) is trading more like Phoenix than any other market. Still down about 50% from peak with a small, feeble little bounce from about 8 months ago when it was closer to 55% down.

The market is still massively oversupplied with the repo market still acting as a massive cap on the rest of the market.

I think that Case Shiller reports all house sales as repos are as arm's length as any other sales.

It is interesting to me to look at Dallas prices. Not much boom and not much bust. The lok at Phoenix with its huge boom and bust. It is interesting to compare the laws in Texas with respect to MEW with those of Arizona. Texas learned their lessons from the S&L crisis and enacted rational laws to limit leverage. I expect that many other jurisdictions will follow suit in the coming years, including the UK no matter how much the CML et al whine and complain.

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In California, there is already a two tiered pricing system in the market :

- Non-distressed sales are taking place at about 30% below peak prices.

- Distressed sales are taking place at about 50% below peak prices.

Given all the uncertainty about title and the ability to actually transfer ownership in the US, I can see a third tier developing :

- Sales of non-mortgaged properties where the legal transfer of title can be assured might start to trade at 15% below peak prices.

It would be nice if the prudent are actually rewarded.

Not in the US, the banks are seizing properties that the owners had bought with cash!

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  • 150 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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