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Anyone Afraid We're All Wrong?


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the way i see it is that the end result is inevitable they can suspend it for as long as they want ie intrest rates/qe and what ever other madness they think up but its all just taking one last deep breath before england plc goes under for the last time it is not possible for ten years of harm to undone in 5 mins without anyone losing anything on a large scale in a country without the industry to back up its joke spending habits. also as i see it banks wont lend because they need to rebalance there books against all there dodgy lending they have done recently by jan 2012 and have been told there will extentions on this so they like cat on hot tin roof

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Is anyone nervous that the government is going to print money on a massive scale, giving it to the banks as before, which will then prop up the share and housing markets and devalue our savings even further? Seems to me that a couple of months more falls and this will happen.

I have a nasty memory of a Sibley post in about March/April 2009 saying that QE1 was going to prop up the market, right before the bounce began. Admit it, he was right.

The Proclaimers had a great line(though referring to something different):

"What do you do, when minority means you?"

The contributors to HPC and first time buyers are the minority. The majority are indebted VIs.

So, boys and girls :

What do we do, when minority means us?

My South African friend was shocked by how much the Rand is worth in terms of echange rates. I told him it's to do with printing money here, how it makes ours worth a lot less. They're coming into summertime there, so perhaps it's just the seasonal surge he suggested. Should they continue along this path of printing money, and no-one who has any sense whatsoever cannot see what this means in terms of inflation and devaluation, we're all screwed. If only we had any say whatsoever in the policy. We don't - we're at the whim of a roomful of miopic tossers.

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And the BTL's aren't going to crash and burn as continued immigration and the mortage drought (and falling real income and disposable income) will push more and more people into the rental sector, rents will rise and that in itself will reinforce and

increase the demand for more property for more BTL. HPC ain't gonna happen folks.

BTL won't crash? And what if the Currency Vigilantes awake from the dead and bomb Sterling? Resulting in domestic inflation and higher borrowing rates? What happens to real BTL returns then? What happens to real house prices then? Not only that but who the fvck will want to immigrate to this Island-o-Muck with decreased benefits? Your "demand" arguement is bogus because it assumes the people can leverage up 8-12x earnings to "purchase" a house. Immigration did not cause the house price boom. Credit did. Even with another 200bn QE the banks are still FUBAR for the next 10 years. This means that the option to lever up to 8-12x earnings has been removed. The options to over-pay for property have been withdrawn.

One only has to look at the pathetic result ZIRP, QE 1 and a massive public sector *****fest to see that it only created minor respite from the ravages of economic reality. The reality is here. The only way the UK is special is in the way it has blown its load all at once for a temporary result.

Edited by Kootenai Brown
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Email your MP. Councillors and Grant Shapps.

They have to reply, not personally by the staff do and they do pass this information on.

It is the most effective method for the least effort.

Write to you MP, a week later write again with a different slant on it they have to reply again.

Please do it.

This is precisely what I have been doing. Very easy by email and I always get a reply. If enough do this, they may start thinking that we really are p i s s e d off.

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Let me turn that round, continued immigration and more FTBs being forced to rent..thats going to result in lower rents?

I wouldn't count on the immigration thing. The job situation is much worse now, word of this soon gets back. When I arrived back into this country 5 years ago there were plenty of jobs (at my low level!) but if I was arriving back now I wouldn't have a hope in hell.

Have a look at threads on here by those looking for work.

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Incomes may come down but that doesn't mean rents can't rise to take an even larger share of that income: the

UK economy and political system now operates as a plutocracy...thus its all about impoverishing people to make the

rich even richer: read the signs...collapsed social mobility, falling wages, rising taxes, cuts in services, graduates leaving

Uni with massive debt (soon to be bigger) only to get a job flipping burgers...mortgage droughts and "housing shortages"

and a huge growth in an expensive private rented sector are just part of the impoverishment process.

Looks like Aviva are prepared to put £1bn of thier money where my mouth is...these guys want to make rented housing "a

new asset class," read it and weep.

AVIVA EYES NEW RENTAL HOMES FUND

Ah, but...

Incomes may come down but that doesn't mean mortgages can't rise to take an even larger share of that income

So people with mortgages already can watch as their equity evaporates with falling prices, at the same time, those falling prices and high deposit requirements - not to mention the fact that everything else that's a basic need like food, petrol, etc will keep going up - prevent new entrants from entering the market and curbing discretionary spending.

So it chases itself down. There is no automatic or given transfer from having a mortgage to renting.

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Incomes may come down but that doesn't mean rents can't rise to take an even larger share of that income: the

UK economy and political system now operates as a plutocracy...thus its all about impoverishing people to make the

rich even richer: read the signs...collapsed social mobility, falling wages, rising taxes, cuts in services, graduates leaving

Uni with massive debt (soon to be bigger) only to get a job flipping burgers...mortgage droughts and "housing shortages"

and a huge growth in an expensive private rented sector are just part of the impoverishment process.

Looks like Aviva are prepared to put £1bn of thier money where my mouth is...these guys want to make rented housing "a

new asset class," read it and weep.AVIVA EYES NEW RENTAL HOMES FUND

What's wrong with this? It will increase the supply of rental properties. From my understanding the government has refused to subsidise this despite basically pleading for institutional investors to get into the private rented market.

Not many others have jumped at the idea because rental yields are so low it doesn't make any sense. But, the price of land with planning permission has fallen by 25%, so the numbers may add up for Aviva and Telford for a massive new build development that would incorporate economies of scale. That is if they can get planning permission.

Loads of institutional investments in rentals in the US (REITs) and rents were always low.

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but but but...house prices are falling?

banks cant lend....they need more capital and people are borrowing less anyway...and they may be a little unsure about US CDOs they have on their books too.

only things that I know is u shouldn't borrow more than 4 times ur salary.. After it's just Math..

Also how much these country is in debt? How much interest does the country have to pay to borrow..

Looking to countries which are healthier u can clearly see, there is something wrong..

I can't wait to see all morons to realise they bought a house (sorry,not a house, not a home, an Investment) they won't be able to sale... Happy repo :)

Anyway in any case house price will always go up....but until when?

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You can shout and scream and stamp your feet hold your breath and cover your eyes as much as you like,

but you ain't going to get your HPC. Deal with it.

maybe I will enjoy the total destruction of our currency and financial system instead? think Ill increase my spare food stock. Landlord can go hang for his rent...maybe Ill give him a tin of beans a week....should be more than worth it.

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QE1 got the banks out, and has allowed 2 years for the elite to sell up (MP’s etc.) with minimal loss.

The inflation has already happened (QE0?) and couldn’t be paid back.

QE1 can’t be paid back. QE2-infinity won’t be able to be paid back. It’s pointless doing it.

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In the UK there are two sorts of estate. The ones where you go hunting, and the ones where your alloys get stolen.

Real, on the other hand, is what you need to get- non frog.

I went shooting on a country estate last week and then drove home to my ex-council estate. Does that mean I'm a toff or a chav? :unsure:

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The Tory party is the party of the rich isn't it? Won't those rich people have plenty of money? If they go too far with QE it would destroy money wouldn't it? If you were rich would you want to destroy money? Didn't the Tories have 15% interest rates in the 90's to protect their money and get a juicey return from it? If they do a bit more QE they might be able to do the same again.

Thats certainly true if they're holding a lot of cash. I think most of them are rich in assets other than cash, of which I suspect most will be shares and property. QE will have an inflationary effect which will reduce the value of cash but increase the value of other assets including shares and property. It also reduces the real value of the debt and so is very attractive to the politicians.

With the dollar falling I think a lot of countries will find devaluing their own currency even more attractive.

In the 90s the rate increases were to do with the ERM. Politicians of all colours will in general keep rates as low as they can. As inflation rises the rates will start to creep up again but there will be a lag time to let inflation eat the debt and to not harm confidence.

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Q. Anyone Afraid We're All Wrong?

A. Nope!

Good for you. You're certain about something. Which could mean you have analyzed a complex situation, understood everything - and are right, or it could mean you are believing what you want to believe.

As long as people are willing and able to pay the daft rents currently being paid, the housing market is going nowhere.

This is the fundamental building block upon which the house of cards now rests.

How many times have you read that people couldn't sell their house for (what they think) it is worth and who rented the house out and went ahead and bought another one?

How many BTL landlords are selling up because of voids? Because while rents are high, voids are the ONLY reason they will sell up. Even if the property price is falling, as long as they can pay the mortgage they will hang on until prices rise again. Because, rise again they will. One day.

The housing market limps on with just a third of the transactions in the boom years. But prices have not collapsed.

Anyone afraid we're all wrong? I am.

Edited by Let's get it right
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The Tory party is the party of the rich isn't it?

Why don't you stop and think about that for a minute. Surely, if you do, you must see it is complete and utter tosh.

We live in some sort of one man, one vote democracy.

What sort of lunatic would run a political party for the benefit of 1% of the population - or even 5% of the population.

Have you been asleep for the last 20 years? Have you not heard they all want to occupy the 'middle ground'? They need to get the votes of as many people as possible to get into power.

If you think they all lie and really represent the rich and that anyone who votes Tory, who isn't rich, hasn't twigged what is really happening - then all I'd say is that the Labour party did a pretty good job of lining the bankers' pockets over the last 13 years.

If you were to hang the absurd moniker of 'the party of the rich' around any political party's neck, surely that party would be New Labour - the professional tossers.

Edited by Let's get it right
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I too have your worry but not directed towards house prices themselves but actually the worse case scenario which could wipe me out as well. I am pretty sure house prices will correct but there will be a point reached when the 'be careful what you wish for' scenario comes into play - I don't want a great depression and mass poverty; i don't wish that on anyone.

With regards to your comments, what you describe is the temporary deadlock we have seen in the last 18 months not a long term position... the market cannot sustain itself as it is if credit remains tight. In your example you describe hoards of people not being able to sell so just moving onto somewhere else and renting out. With tight credit this is not possible because they won’t qualify for a second mortgage if they already hold a mortgage for the first property. Eventually people NEED to move on for many reasons - death, divorce, needing more space for children, work changes etc: whilst these are not many HPC’ers wet dream 'repos' they are all examples of why, over time the market will either HAVE to fall into line OR credit will have to become easy to get hold of to the levels of 2007. And IMO the latter is not going to happen.

We are already seeing the people who put their lives on hold for 18 months – the ones who dug their heels in because their property was ‘worth more’ – slowly but surely cracking as supply continues to outstrip demand… I think you are underestimating the requirements of many to HAVE to move on… English people can be very stubborn and we have seen this in the last 18 months BUT eventually the cracks will start to show as desperation sets in.

Good for you. You're certain about something. Which could mean you have analyzed a complex situation, understood everything - and are right, or it could mean you are believing what you want to believe.

As long as people are willing and able to pay the daft rents currently being paid, the housing market is going nowhere.

This is the fundamental building block upon which the house of cards now rests.

How many times have you read that people couldn't sell their house for (what they think) it is worth and who rented the house out and went ahead and bought another one?

How many BTL landlords are selling up because of voids? Because while rents are high, voids are the ONLY reason they will sell up. Even if the property price is falling, as long as they can pay the mortgage they will hang on until prices rise again. Because, rise again they will. One day.

The housing market limps on with just a third of the transactions in the boom years. But prices have not collapsed.

Anyone afraid we're all wrong? I am.

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I too have your worry but not directed towards house prices themselves but actually the worse case scenario which could wipe me out as well. I am pretty sure house prices will correct but there will be a point reached when the 'be careful what you wish for' scenario comes into play - I don't want a great depression and mass poverty; i don't wish that on anyone.

With regards to your comments, what you describe is the temporary deadlock we have seen in the last 18 months not a long term position... the market cannot sustain itself as it is if credit remains tight. In your example you describe hoards of people not being able to sell so just moving onto somewhere else and renting out. With tight credit this is not possible because they won’t qualify for a second mortgage if they already hold a mortgage for the first property. Eventually people NEED to move on for many reasons - death, divorce, needing more space for children, work changes etc: whilst these are not many HPC’ers wet dream 'repos' they are all examples of why, over time the market will either HAVE to fall into line OR credit will have to become easy to get hold of to the levels of 2007. And IMO the latter is not going to happen.

We are already seeing the people who put their lives on hold for 18 months – the ones who dug their heels in because their property was ‘worth more’ – slowly but surely cracking as supply continues to outstrip demand… I think you are underestimating the requirements of many to HAVE to move on… English people can be very stubborn and we have seen this in the last 18 months BUT eventually the cracks will start to show as desperation sets in.

[and that ties in with the million dollar question]

.. what would trigger this desperation? However one paints it desperation has not set in - yet. This is the 4th qrt of 2010. How long do you keep waiting for this so called deperation to become the 'norm' i.e. insted of talking about it, we are living through it???????

[.and that ties in with the million dollar question]

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[and that ties in with the million dollar question]

.. what would trigger this desperation? However one paints it desperation has not set in - yet. This is the 4th qrt of 2010. How long do you keep waiting for this so called deperation to become the 'norm' i.e. insted of talking about it, we are living through it???????

[.and that ties in with the million dollar question]

Things get desperate when number 2 kid comes and the 1 bedroom flat is suddenly not big enough

Things get desperate when a couple who have a large mortgage both work in the public sector

Things get desperate when the main income earner is struck down with cancer

Things get desperate when you work for a company who relocates you

Things get desperate when you've been living on credit and that credit dries up

I could go on

What I describe isn't a single whammy desperation (repossessions from redundancy is the one everyone on here hails as the silver HPC bullet), it's the drip-drip effect that will lead to a tipping point - people in these situations (or nearing these situations) cannot remain stubborn forever. Drip drip and then whoosh, the tipping point is reached and the crash becomes self fulfilling.

I believe we are now past the point where people can afford to remain blinkered to the point that the housing market won't go down.

Like you say, the exact timing of this is certainly up in the air but I do not subscribe to some of the pessimists on here that just because people have remained stubbornly dug in (delusional) that the market can sustain itself without a fall.

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Like you say, the exact timing of this is certainly up in the air but I do not subscribe to some of the pessimists on here that just because people have remained stubbornly dug in (delusional) that the market can sustain itself without a fall.

If you'd told me 2 years ago that the market could function with almost no FTBs, rationed mortgages, high deposits required and transactions down to about a third of what they used to be, I'd say you were truly nuts.

But, what do I know?

So far throughout my almost exactly 7 year 'house price journey' I have been repeatedly wrong. I guess I'm just facing up to it now and admitting that I got it wrong.

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How many times have you read that people couldn't sell their house for (what they think) it is worth and who rented the house out and went ahead and bought another one?

Yes, a great way to leverage your capital losses.

How many BTL landlords are selling up because of voids? Because while rents are high, voids are the ONLY reason they will sell up. Even if the property price is falling, as long as they can pay the mortgage they will hang on until prices rise again. Because, rise again they will. One day.

Why would someone hold a depreciating asset when they can sell and buy back in to the market later ?.

I can only see those with -ve equity trying to hold on in the vain hope that they wont have to realise the loss. Trouble is with a BTL in -ve equity you will be 1) paying a very high interest rate and 2) have the receiver ready to pounce in as soon as you have 2 weeks rent unpaid.

The housing market limps on with just a third of the transactions in the boom years. But prices have not collapsed.

Markets with a high speculative element never "limp on" indefinitely, they go either up or down very quickly with brief pauses at either end.

Anyone afraid we're all wrong? I am.

No, we are right the mathematics are inescapable.

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  • 433 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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