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Is anyone nervous that the government is going to print money on a massive scale, giving it to the banks as before, which will then prop up the share and housing markets and devalue our savings even further? Seems to me that a couple of months more falls and this will happen.

I have a nasty memory of a Sibley post in about March/April 2009 saying that QE1 was going to prop up the market, right before the bounce began. Admit it, he was right.

The Proclaimers had a great line(though referring to something different):

"What do you do, when minority means you?"

The contributors to HPC and first time buyers are the minority. The majority are indebted VIs.

So, boys and girls :

What do we do, when minority means us?

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I always thought QE1 was to save the financial system and it was lowering IR and all the other jolly schemes that kept house prices up. But then I don't understand this upside down world anymore.

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Is anyone nervous that the government is going to print money on a massive scale, giving it to the banks as before, which will then prop up the share and housing markets and devalue our savings even further? Seems to me that a couple of months more falls and this will happen.

I have a nasty memory of a Sibley post in about March/April 2009 saying that QE1 was going to prop up the market, right before the bounce began. Admit it, he was right.

The Proclaimers had a great line(though referring to something different):

"What do you do, when minority means you?"

The contributors to HPC and first time buyers are the minority. The majority are indebted VIs.

So, boys and girls :

What do we do, when minority means us?

but but but...house prices are falling?

banks cant lend....they need more capital and people are borrowing less anyway...and they may be a little unsure about US CDOs they have on their books too.

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What do we do, when minority means us?

IRs can't go any lower, mortgage rescue scheme can't go on forever for everyone.

However, this time it's all about jobs and disposable income.

Sadly for some, as a consequence - repossessions will follow. Without hosue repossessions and forced sales - there's no crash.

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but but but...house prices are falling?

banks cant lend....they need more capital and people are borrowing less anyway...and they may be a little unsure about US CDOs they have on their books too.

They can and will lend if IRs remain low and they're given more money by the central bank. They did last time, they will again.

I don't think the banking system can support a big drop, so the government will push the QE button if we look like getting one. The Americans will scratch our back as far as the national credit ratings are concerned as long as we scratch theirs.

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IRs can't go any lower, mortgage rescue scheme can't go on forever for everyone.

However, this time it's all about jobs and disposable income.

Sadly for some, as a consequence - repossessions will follow. Without hosue repossessions and forced sales - there's no crash.

Loads of STR and BTL's with money to burn will buy up lots of property starting with the few repossessions that become available.

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They can and will lend if IRs remain low and they're given more money by the central bank. They did last time, they will again.

I don't think the banking system can support a big drop, so the government will push the QE button if we look like getting one. The Americans will scratch our back as far as the national credit ratings are concerned as long as we scratch theirs.

Unless they are planning QE2 to allow the banks to survive a crash

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IRs can't go any lower, mortgage rescue scheme can't go on forever for everyone.

However, this time it's all about jobs and disposable income.

Sadly for some, as a consequence - repossessions will follow. Without hosue repossessions and forced sales - there's no crash.

Agreed.

The last government acted to prevent this. The coalition haven't dropped SMI, only reduced it a bit. If they dropped it entirely, that would change the game(but would also get them out of office pronto)

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IRs can't go any lower, mortgage rescue scheme can't go on forever for everyone.

However, this time it's all about jobs and disposable income.

Sadly for some, as a consequence - repossessions will follow. Without hosue repossessions and forced sales - there's no crash.

nah individual familly repossessions are small fry compared to the BTLers with massive portfolios. It's them we need to be forcing their property on the market more than indebted families.

No BTL firesales = No Crash.

Edited by PopGun

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Is anyone nervous that the government is going to print money on a massive scale, giving it to the banks as before, which will then prop up the share and housing markets and devalue our savings even further?

Welcome to the future that has already happened.

I've found a forced seller and am buying with very little net debt. Prices of large plots are down around 60%, mortgages are super cheap (2.19%, base rate tracker for term) whilst my savings are being wiped out by inflation. I expect rates to stay low whilst the austerity measures are tried.

My economic logic says the government and private debt is so large, it cannot be repaid, so it simply will not be repaid and there must be a default by inflation. There was to be a short period of deflation before the printers kick in and I think that deflation phase is now over.

I expect real houses prices to fall for the long term but nominal prices are in control of government and central banks and I have no faith they will do the decent thing and let the debt-ridden get wiped out.

If I had a way to maintain the real value of my savings, I would not buy. (don't say gold).

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They can and will lend if IRs remain low and they're given more money by the central bank. They did last time, they will again.

I don't think the banking system can support a big drop, so the government will push the QE button if we look like getting one. The Americans will scratch our back as far as the national credit ratings are concerned as long as we scratch theirs.

what I meant was, people to lend to are becoming a rarity....course the banks can lend...but they cant FORCE lending.

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It doesn’t matter if prices don't crash overnight with the high LTV and first time buyers priced out, the markets fecked for the foreseeable future until it crashes. What’s the rush keep renting and going on nice holidays.

Id rather buy a 40ft motor yacht and sail about rather than buy a shitty semi in a god forsaken area for 100k

http://yachts.apolloduck.com/feature.phtml?id=159609

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Is anyone nervous that the government is going to print money on a massive scale, giving it to the banks as before, which will then prop up the share and housing markets and devalue our savings even further? Seems to me that a couple of months more falls and this will happen.

I have a nasty memory of a Sibley post in about March/April 2009 saying that QE1 was going to prop up the market, right before the bounce began. Admit it, he was right.

The Proclaimers had a great line(though referring to something different):

"What do you do, when minority means you?"

The contributors to HPC and first time buyers are the minority. The majority are indebted VIs.

So, boys and girls :

What do we do, when minority means us?

Email your MP. Councillors and Grant Shapps.

They have to reply, not personally by the staff do and they do pass this information on.

It is the most effective method for the least effort.

Write to you MP, a week later write again with a different slant on it they have to reply again.

Please do it.

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Welcome to the future that has already happened.

I've found a forced seller and am buying with very little net debt. Prices of large plots are down around 60%, mortgages are super cheap (2.19%, base rate tracker for term) whilst my savings are being wiped out by inflation. I expect rates to stay low whilst the austerity measures are tried.

My economic logic says the government and private debt is so large, it cannot be repaid, so it simply will not be repaid and there must be a default by inflation. There was to be a short period of deflation before the printers kick in and I think that deflation phase is now over.

I expect real houses prices to fall for the long term but nominal prices are in control of government and central banks and I have no faith they will do the decent thing and let the debt-ridden get wiped out.

If I had a way to maintain the real value of my savings, I would not buy. (don't say gold).

Yes, I have to say it is lucky that half my cash is in Swissies, this has helped a bit..

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Email your MP. Councillors and Grant Shapps.

They have to reply, not personally by the staff do and they do pass this information on.

It is the most effective method for the least effort.

Write to you MP, a week later write again with a different slant on it they have to reply again.

Please do it.

http://www.theyworkforyou.com/

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QE was intended to offset the risk of deflation. Now with CPI over its hard limit (3.1% last month) QE would be like pouring petrol onto a fire. :o

However, that doesn't mean they won't do it. Not least because last year's QE was effectively used to fund the deficit and it's not obvious that this year's deficit would be affordable without QE.

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IMO it was falling rates that propped house prices much more than QE did. I also believe QE2 will be geared towards business lending.

It does concern me that they may try to prop the Market but I think they would only keep current levels sustained rather than pushing prices up which is what this government would want. Further more prices dropped about 20% before QE/ZIRP turned it around. Another 20% from here again would be great :).

Although can happily live with stagnation. But I believe there will be/is now a crash.

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IMO it was falling rates that propped house prices much more than QE did. I also believe QE2 will be geared towards business lending.

It does concern me that they may try to prop the Market but I think they would only keep current levels sustained rather than pushing prices up which is what this government would want. Further more prices dropped about 20% before QE/ZIRP turned it around. Another 20% from here again would be great :).

Although can happily live with stagnation. But I believe there will be/is now a crash.

What's so good about stagnation of nominal prices?

That will just inflate away our money(except my CHF).

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The Tory party is the party of the rich isn't it? Won't those rich people have plenty of money? If they go too far with QE it would destroy money wouldn't it? If you were rich would you want to destroy money? Didn't the Tories have 15% interest rates in the 90's to protect their money and get a juicey return from it? If they do a bit more QE they might be able to do the same again.

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what I meant was, people to lend to are becoming a rarity....course the banks can lend...but they cant FORCE lending.

I was thinking - BTLers are crying out for mortgage deals. Savers are crying out for saving rates. So give 100% mortgages to BTLers for 6%, and give 5% to savers.

This all crashed last time, but money has no value so there's no consequences.

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In my dreams Loads of STR and BTL's with money to burn will buy up lots of property starting with the few repossessions that become available.

:rolleyes:

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IMO it was falling rates that propped house prices much more than QE did. I also believe QE2 will be geared towards business lending.

It does concern me that they may try to prop the Market but I think they would only keep current levels sustained rather than pushing prices up which is what this government would want. Further more prices dropped about 20% before QE/ZIRP turned it around. Another 20% from here again would be great :).

Although can happily live with stagnation. But I believe there will be/is now a crash.

QE1 was geared towards business lending....but it didnt end up there..it ended up in assets in the stock market.

They look like they may need QE again as these assets are plateauxing....and they think that printing provides stimulus....it does...for a short while.

Sadly, they cant force people to borrow...Low Rates are not a sign of a healthy economy by the way.

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Is anyone nervous that the government is going to print money on a massive scale, giving it to the banks as before, which will then prop up the share and housing markets and devalue our savings even further? Seems to me that a couple of months more falls and this will happen.

I have a nasty memory of a Sibley post in about March/April 2009 saying that QE1 was going to prop up the market, right before the bounce began. Admit it, he was right.

The Proclaimers had a great line(though referring to something different):

"What do you do, when minority means you?"

The contributors to HPC and first time buyers are the minority. The majority are indebted VIs.

So, boys and girls :

What do we do, when minority means us?

All the government can do in the housing market, is to delay any price adjustment, at the expense of making it worse.

If they keep interest rates on the pound super low for an extended period of time, and run budget deficits, in part to bailout over-indebted mortgagees, then sooner or later the pound itself will collapse.

Buying gold is the best way for a minority to put an end to this nonsense. The relentless rise in the price of gold is caused by the stupidity of governments who are trying hard to stop economic laws from exerting themselves. That wont work, if the governments dont back off, they will lose the trust needed to be able to issue their own currency. Gold as a money is coming. Minorities everywhere will rejoice.

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  • 146 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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