Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

blankster

How Long Do You Give The Coalition?

Recommended Posts

As a Lib Dem I think Nick Clegg did the right thing in giving the coalition with the Tories a chance but the way things are going I think the rank and file Lib Dems will turn against the coalition, isolating Clegg and Cable and forcing its end. The public spending cuts and the resulting protests are likely to be the tipping point. I give the coalition months rather than years - then there'll be an election and Labour will probably win. I've made this prediction before, saying that David Miliband would be PM - well, I was wrong there, it'll be Ed!

It may well be the case that Gordon Brown's disastrous government left the public finances in ruins as he robbed us, the electorate, to pay off the rich bankers, but now is now and it's the cuts that will make people angry and the anger will turn on those who support the cuts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As a Lib Dem I think Nick Clegg did the right thing in giving the coalition with the Tories a chance but the way things are going I think the rank and file Lib Dems will turn against the coalition, isolating Clegg and Cable and forcing its end. The public spending cuts and the resulting protests are likely to be the tipping point. I give the coalition months rather than years - then there'll be an election and Labour will probably win. I've made this prediction before, saying that David Miliband would be PM - well, I was wrong there, it'll be Ed!

It may well be the case that Gordon Brown's disastrous government left the public finances in ruins as he robbed us, the electorate, to pay off the rich bankers, but now is now and it's the cuts that will make people angry and the anger will turn on those who support the cuts.

But haven't surveys shown the majority of the public support the cuts?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

[/b]

But haven't surveys shown the majority of the public support the cuts?

Anyone taking bets that the public fully support the cuts right up to the point where their own benefits go awol?

From what I am reading practically everyone is assuming it's going to be someone else getting the poopy end of the branch!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As a Lib Dem I think Nick Clegg did the right thing in giving the coalition with the Tories a chance but the way things are going I think the rank and file Lib Dems will turn against the coalition, isolating Clegg and Cable and forcing its end. The public spending cuts and the resulting protests are likely to be the tipping point. I give the coalition months rather than years - then there'll be an election and Labour will probably win. I've made this prediction before, saying that David Miliband would be PM - well, I was wrong there, it'll be Ed!

It may well be the case that Gordon Brown's disastrous government left the public finances in ruins as he robbed us, the electorate, to pay off the rich bankers, but now is now and it's the cuts that will make people angry and the anger will turn on those who support the cuts.

I agree that rank and file Lib Dems will turn against the coalition, but don't see why anyone should care in the sightest what rank and file Lib Dems think. Clegg and Cable will ignore them, as will most other Lib Dem MPs as this is their only shot at "power" in their political careers.

If the coalition collapses another election will be called, Lib Dem support will evaporate and in the South and East their voters will go Tory. They only voted Lib Dem as it was fashionable anyway. The Torys will win an outright majority, Labour will pick up some of the yellow vote but not enough to win back power (Red Ed is unelectable anyway) and Clegg will go down in history as the worst Lib Dem leader ever.

If the coalition doesn't collapse, the scenario above will be played out at the next GE anyway. I know several previously committed Lib Dem voters who are outraged at the coalition. We'll be back to a two party system (if we ever left it).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Power is a great incentive, and the Lib Dems finally have a chance to implement their policies for the first time in decades.

I think the coalition will last the course, simply because the parliamentary party will not be able to go to the public and risk losing their seats once the cuts start to bite.

That and they may legislate for fixed term parliaments - which would indicate things going for the full 5 years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It'll last, how long is parliament now, 5 years ? The coalition is exactly what libdem voters and MPs wanted, unless of course in voting for a minority party they hoped they'd never have to face to responsibility of governing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

[/b]

But haven't surveys shown the majority of the public support the cuts?

Yes, but if the uber rich/bankster class are not seen to be suffering too then its going to get nasty. At the moment it looks like the Lower Middle/Middle Classes are bearing the brunt of the cuts especially with todays higher ed funding proposals.

They should announce immediately the extension of last years banking bonus tax, plus more, be much more proactive in closing down the loopholes the rich and powerful exploit. Class envy or rather wealth envy will be back in fashion big time next year.........

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From an instinctively Tory-supporting perspective, my take is that the Conservatives have a VI in keeping the coalition alive, at least until the electoral/constitutional issues are sorted out that give them an inherent disadvantage at a general election. They've already offered the Lib Dems alternative vote in exchange for de-rigging the constituency boundaries. The latter has to be a red line for the Tories: if it weren't for the fact that the average Tory stronghold constituency has 1.7x the number of voters in it than the average Labour stronghold and nearly double that of the average Tory-Lib Dem marginal, they would have got an overall majority in May. Removing the right of Scottish MPs to vote on England-only issues at Westminster is a highly desirable optional extra, but if they get the constituency size issue sorted then I don't think Cameron will be as hesitant to call an election at the next moderate sign of trouble thereafter, especially if the opinion poll figures add up. The Lib Dems know this, but electoral reform is such a fundamental priority for them (and besides, on most predictive models, equally sized constituencies would push a few Labour-Lib Dem marginals in their direction) that they'll probably let it through. Labour strategists must be desperate to ensure that the next general election happens after the cuts have started to bite, but before any electoral reform goes through.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From an instinctively Tory-supporting perspective, my take is that the Conservatives have a VI in keeping the coalition alive, at least until the electoral/constitutional issues are sorted out that give them an inherent disadvantage at a general election. They've already offered the Lib Dems alternative vote in exchange for de-rigging the constituency boundaries. The latter has to be a red line for the Tories: if it weren't for the fact that the average Tory stronghold constituency has 1.7x the number of voters in it than the average Labour stronghold and nearly double that of the average Tory-Lib Dem marginal, they would have got an overall majority in May. Removing the right of Scottish MPs to vote on England-only issues at Westminster is a highly desirable optional extra, but if they get the constituency size issue sorted then I don't think Cameron will be as hesitant to call an election at the next moderate sign of trouble thereafter, especially if the opinion poll figures add up. The Lib Dems know this, but electoral reform is such a fundamental priority for them (and besides, on most predictive models, equally sized constituencies would push a few Labour-Lib Dem marginals in their direction) that they'll probably let it through. Labour strategists must be desperate to ensure that the next general election happens after the cuts have started to bite, but before any electoral reform goes through.

I'd agree with this entirely. I am Tory leaning, though I personally despise Cameron and Osborne. I personally would have taken an knife to parts of the NHS, and can't believe it is being left on labour's budget plans.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It will last 5 years as we now have fixed term parliaments which cannot be voted out even if every libdem and liemore mp votes against. Come the next election the voters can choose between mr bean fronting the scum ball labour party who totally Fu**Ed every aspect of this country or the Tories who will have proven once again that labour destroy the country and the Tories fix it. It usually takes about 18 years for the voters to forget what an absolute joke the lying pointless labour party who operate only for themselves are and re elect them. Death to labour!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone taking bets that the public fully support the cuts right up to the point where their own benefits go awol?

From what I am reading practically everyone is assuming it's going to be someone else getting the poopy end of the branch!

Agreed. The howls of outrage are only beginnning.

But howling doesn't create wealth, and nor does printing money. They will howl in vain.

The coalition will last the full 5 years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Party Conference season was instructive.

The Libdems were far from jubilent, tense more like. I suspect that much was said off screen and Clegg put under pressure. He failed to invigorate his troops.

Labour were successful in finding a new leader with clear water between him and Blair and Brown. A very sophisticated piece of political placement by him and the Party. He has a lot to do and will not want an election just yet.

The Tories of course do not like to share anything with anyone. The Right believe that Cameron should and could have won a big majority. Cuts they like, it is in their DNA, but they expect the proceeds to be redistributed to them in lower tax. They won, but there are no dividends. All very lukewarm.

Only Labour is seeing any rise in its membership which will be important because the next election and the appetite for it, will depend on resources. It will be a shoestring election for all Parties.

In my view, Milliband would like 12-18 months to polish the Labour message and let the Tories foul up some more.

The Tories just are not happy within teir own ranks. How do party workers explain 'the Big Society'? What has it got to do with their own aspirations and ideals? The Tories will not want to concede power, but Camermoron would quickly be sacraficed if he fails to hold out hope of riches to come.

The LibDems are doomed.

It will all fall apart within a year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It will last 5 years as we now have fixed term parliaments which cannot be voted out even if every libdem and liemore mp votes against. Come the next election the voters can choose between mr bean fronting the scum ball labour party who totally Fu**Ed every aspect of this country or the Tories who will have proven once again that labour destroy the country and the Tories fix it. It usually takes about 18 years for the voters to forget what an absolute joke the lying pointless labour party who operate only for themselves are and re elect them. Death to labour!

+1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

this is their only shot at "power" in their political careers.

Always thought LibDems didn't understand what they actually stood for. Now we know they don't understand what they actually stand for. They will jump ship in significant numbers, some to Labour and some to the Tories. And the ones that do jump ship will sooner or later get another shot at power. The LibDems are finished. Sold out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So far the coalition has been a breath of fresh air.

I was worried in the first instance about whether the two parties would knit, but I have been very impressed by how grown up they have both been.

Cameron and Clegg support each other well.

I expect it will be fine until we near the next election.. then it will be every man for himself again :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The LibDems are finished. Sold out.

I would have thought they are the ideal party to be in for a career politician.. as long as it's roughly 50/50 between left and right they will be continue to ride on the coat tails of their coalition partners making whatever demands they want in the opening negotiations and having a weighted say in the proceedings throughout. They also get to blame the other party when TSHTF :lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The coalition gives the Lib Dems some credibility, they would do well to keep it going if only for the experience. It is possible that we are in for a period of coalition politics even after the next election so the more experience parties get, the better.

The Conservatives would do well to remember that they govern with the help of the Lib Dems and that some bones will have to be thrown their way. Like some others here, I also think this government has some mileage to go yet and I will go so far as to say it will see 2012 intact.

EDIT:Speeling

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As a Lib Dem I think Nick Clegg did the right thing in giving the coalition with the Tories a chance but the way things are going I think the rank and file Lib Dems will turn against the coalition, isolating Clegg and Cable and forcing its end. The public spending cuts and the resulting protests are likely to be the tipping point. I give the coalition months rather than years - then there'll be an election and Labour will probably win. I've made this prediction before, saying that David Miliband would be PM - well, I was wrong there, it'll be Ed!

It may well be the case that Gordon Brown's disastrous government left the public finances in ruins as he robbed us, the electorate, to pay off the rich bankers, but now is now and it's the cuts that will make people angry and the anger will turn on those who support the cuts.

LDs are sunk without the colaition, even intellectually challenged LDs such as Bob Russell will work out that at 15-odd% in the polls, they need to bite the pillow and stay with it, or they are out of a job. The worse the polls get for the LDs, the more they have to lose by leaving govt.

I suspect it won't be the cuts as such which sink the popularity of the coalition, but the double dip. If they avoid that (doubt it) they will get more popular in 2-3 years.

Bad news for LDs though is that if he pulls it off (see above...) Cameron will be elected again as head of tory majority govt. Then the LDs will rip themselves apart. If not, the coalition loses big...and the LDs will rip themselves apart

Lds f*cked whichever way you look at it. BUt that;s what you get for siging 6th form politics style "pledges"... :rolleyes:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.