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koala_bear

Cml August Figures (Buried On A Busy News Day?)

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http://www.cml.org.u...edia/press/2732

also reflected in updated BBC article

http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-11515818

and guardian

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2010/oct/12/mortgage-home-loans-fall

I have been at meeting all day toady but can't find any reference on the boards to the August CML figures that were released this morning obviously RIC, Shaps and sticky inflation figures make this a good day to bury good bear news;)

For the diary: The September CML data will be released on Thursday 11 November 2010.

There were 51,600 house purchase loans (worth £7.7 billion) advanced in August, a fall of 8% (by volume and value) compared to July. While this is in line with the usual summer lull in market activity, a rise of 3% (by volume) and 12% (by value) from August 2009 shows that 2010 house purchase lending is still proving slightly more robust than the low levels in the equivalent months of 2009.

CML director general Michael Coogan said:

"August is a traditionally slow month for mortgage lending and it was no different this year. We expect a quiet market to continue for the foreseeable future.
While we do not know what the impact of the comprehensive spending review will be on our sector, it will clearly contain austerity measures that will likely further dampen consumers' appetite to borrow.
"We would expect lending to slow more significantly, year on year, as we head towards the end of the year, and it is unlikely that the uncertain environment will encourage a tick up of mortgage activity in 2011. With some uncertainty surrounding future house price trends, we would expect a muted market in the next few years. The problem of excess capital, that led to record lending and borrowing in 2007, has self corrected and will not return."
Edited by koala_bear

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Other months in which we might expect a seasonal fall would be September, October, November, December, January, February, March, April.....

(To slightly paraphrase Mr. Twine)

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How about this for a headline from the Daily Mail.

House prices blow as properties flood the market

UK house prices continued their fall in September, new figures by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) have shown.

The group said that 36 per cent more surveyors reported a decline than those who saw an increase, up from 32 per cent in August, as the market experienced an influx of properties nationally and especially in London.

The balance of surveyors reporting an increase in new instructions almost doubled in the period to 22 per cent, with RICS attributing the increase to homeowners testing the water ahead of the government's spending cut announcement or trying to offload their property before the economy falters even more.

Around 2 per cent more surveyors reported a drop in new buyer enquiries than those who saw an increase, although this was lower than the 17 per cent of surveyors who saw a fall in buyers in the previous month.

Surveyors expect additional price drops going forward, with a balance of 41 per cent expecting property costs to continue their downward trend, the highest level since March 2009.

RICS spokesman Ian Perry said: 'The fresh influx of property to the market combined with a lack of buyers remains the key problem affecting the sector. First-time buyers are in particularly short supply as the high deposits required by lenders prevent them from taking their first steps on the property ladder. Without sufficient demand property prices continue to slip back.

'However, many areas are reporting a correction rather than dramatic falls in prices and vendors who are prepared to be realistic with pricing are still able to achieve a sale. It's very much a buyer's market at the moment.'

Edited by fellow

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I saw this earlier, apparently it's just a standard season fall, nothing to worry about....

From the article ...

With some uncertainty surrounding future house price trends, we would expect a muted market in the next few years. The problem of excess capital, that led to record lending and borrowing in 2007, has self corrected and will not return.

Hardly bullish, in-fact this is one of the beariest of bear comments I've read from Mr Coogan!

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I didn't bother reading that far! So he has just admitted prices are going to crash then...

I think the implication is that there's no money to continue the "heady" days of 2007 - he probably wouldn't agree with your comment (not in public anyway).

lalalalalaa!

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Hardly bullish, in-fact this is one of the beariest of bear comments I've read from Mr Coogan!

I can't help thinking that he only said this as part of his campaign against the FSA proposals i.e. 2007 won't happen again so there's no need to regulate us

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They briefly mentioned this on BBC News 24, mentioning that House Prices have fallen for the 3rd month running. Yet about a month ago, when one of the +0.1% rises became news, they broadcast that house prices rose?

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  • 244 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
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