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Economy `slowed Considerably' In 3Rd Q: B C C

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-11/u-k-economy-needs-forceful-steps-after-third-quarter-slowdown-brc-says.html

U.K. Economy `Slowed Considerably' in Third Quarter, BCC Says
By Scott Hamilton - Oct 12, 2010 12:01 AM GMT+0100
The U.K. economy “slowed considerably” in the third quarter, adding to the case for the Bank of England to expand stimulus to prevent a renewed recession, the British Chambers of Commerce said.

We can expect Merv to be boarding his chopper this side of Crimbo. After all, someone has to pay for all the cuts--right?

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-11/u-k-economy-needs-forceful-steps-after-third-quarter-slowdown-brc-says.html

U.K. Economy `Slowed Considerably' in Third Quarter, BCC Says
By Scott Hamilton - Oct 12, 2010 12:01 AM GMT+0100
The U.K. economy “slowed considerably” in the third quarter, adding to the case for the Bank of England to expand stimulus to prevent a renewed recession, the British Chambers of Commerce said.

We can expect Merv to be boarding his chopper this side of Crimbo. After all, someone has to pay for all the cuts--right?

Pissing into the mouths of the consummers to make them drink.

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-11/u-k-economy-needs-forceful-steps-after-third-quarter-slowdown-brc-says.html

U.K. Economy `Slowed Considerably' in Third Quarter, BCC Says
By Scott Hamilton - Oct 12, 2010 12:01 AM GMT+0100
The U.K. economy “slowed considerably” in the third quarter, adding to the case for the Bank of England to expand stimulus to prevent a renewed recession, the British Chambers of Commerce said.

This magic bullet school of economics makes me laugh. QE will decrease growth and increase inflation in the long term and is a frankly mad.

You can't create long term growth and jobs with government spending. All you create is waste and debt. There is a reason the USSR is no longer with us.

There is too much debt, private & public, significant deleveraging needs to take place before we will see growth at pre recession levels. This will reduce growth, and house prices. Eventually we will be in a position to start the cycle again.

There is nothing policy makers can do about this; they should stop pretending there is.

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This magic bullet school of economics makes me laugh. QE will decrease growth and increase inflation in the long term and is a frankly mad.

You can't create long term growth and jobs with government spending. All you create is waste and debt. There is a reason the USSR is no longer with us.

There is too much debt, private & public, significant deleveraging needs to take place before we will see growth at pre recession levels. This will reduce growth, and house prices. Eventually we will be in a position to start the cycle again.

There is nothing policy makers can do about this; they should stop pretending there is.

NICELY PUT. PLEASE KEEP EXPLAINING YOUR MESSAGE TO THE WORLD. THERE IS NO POINT IN ANY LARGE SCALE QE. If we were to believe QE helps, then why not forget the cuts, print tons of money, wait for growth to return and hey presto.

An economy based, on 88% non manufacturing/services and banking with increasing house prices making phoney candy floss wealth, is what we have had for 15 years ( and again in the mid 80's) AND WE DO NOT WANT IT ANYMORE. High land and home prices have crippled our international competitiveness, forcing up wages and creating an impermanent illusion of wealth. We have now been sent the bill and the UK Plc credit card is maxed out.

Edited by plummet expert

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QE is utterly futile.It will have unintended consequences.

The only real solution is to let the deleveraging occur.

Exactly, QE is simply making money worth less.

Problem is that with debts of the size that the UK is currently running they could never pay them without this tinkering.

Inflation at 5% and interest rates at 0.5% should ring alarm bells.

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This magic bullet school of economics makes me laugh. QE will decrease growth and increase inflation in the long term and is a frankly mad.

You can't create long term growth and jobs with government spending. All you create is waste and debt. There is a reason the USSR is no longer with us.

There is too much debt, private & public, significant deleveraging needs to take place before we will see growth at pre recession levels. This will reduce growth, and house prices. Eventually we will be in a position to start the cycle again.

There is nothing policy makers can do about this; they should stop pretending there is.

Spot on - for some reason there seems to be a belief that there is something that can be done to simply short circuit the consequences of the mad credit bubble. This nonsensical notion is promoted heavily by the media and promulgated by politicians who each claim that they are the ones to deliver the miracle cure with their brand of political medicine.

No-one is willing to stand up and tell the public that there is no easy way out .. you just get to choose an extremely painful, relatively short, shock or a long term period of very uncomfortable stagnation. Either way it's not going to be pleasant.

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Spot on - for some reason there seems to be a belief that there is something that can be done to simply short circuit the consequences of the mad credit bubble. This nonsensical notion is promoted heavily by the media and promulgated by politicians who each claim that they are the ones to deliver the miracle cure with their brand of political medicine.

No-one is willing to stand up and tell the public that there is no easy way out .. you just get to choose an extremely painful, relatively short, shock or a long term period of very uncomfortable stagnation. Either way it's not going to be pleasant.

You don't get elected by saying that though.

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Could someone explain (in simple dumb blond language) the alternative to QE.

How do we avoid economic melt-down and oblivion?

(Just want some more ammo, as have great debates with thickies at work. By copying posts from this forum in my arguments - they all think I'm pretty smart!!! :lol: )

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Could someone explain (in simple dumb blond language) the alternative to QE.

How do we avoid economic melt-down and oblivion?

(Just want some more ammo, as have great debates with thickies at work. By copying posts from this forum in my arguments - they all think I'm pretty smart!!! :lol: )

we dont get economic melt down and oblivion EXCEPT by printing...It leads to a hyperinflationery BUST, which is bad news...

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we dont get economic melt down and oblivion EXCEPT by printing.

Sorry, but that's rubbish.

You think the world will be the same tomorrow with mass default?

We just get it over with quicker - and the rebuild can commence. It is also fairer which makes the malaises easier to bear.

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Sorry, but that's rubbish.

You think the world will be the same tomorrow with mass default?

We just get it over with quicker - and the rebuild can commence. It is also fairer which makes the malaises easier to bear.

Where are you getting this MASS DEFAULT info from a fall in GDP?

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Where are you getting this MASS DEFAULT info from a fall in GDP?

The post to which you replied

Could someone explain (in simple dumb blond language) the alternative to QE.

How do we avoid economic melt-down and oblivion?

No printing. = mass default.

I do wonder sometimes if you ever actually read posts.

Edited by Alan B'Stard MP

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More money for bankers then for us to borrow?

Why not print and simply give every lower rate tax earner £5k rebate. The money will end up with the bankers anyway but at least they'll have work at getting it.

I've already proposed that several times.. (Although it was more '£20k for everyone, must be used to repay mortgage/student/unsecured debt before you get to see any as cash'). You'd have to hike interest rates and impose lending restrictions (for mortgages/unsecured) at the same time to contain the resultant inflation, but I haven't seen a killer blow for this idea. So far..

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More money for bankers then for us to borrow?

Why not print and simply give every lower rate tax earner £5k rebate. The money will end up with the bankers anyway but at least they'll have work at getting it.

How would they then charge never ending interest on money they did't loan? Don't be a silly slave.

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So if the BoE and government want inflation (which they've already got) why not just change the CPI measure back to how it was before it was fiddled downward. Get rid of hedonic adjustments and whatnot.

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Could someone explain (in simple dumb blond language) the alternative to QE.

Doing nothing, as in letting nature takes its course in the form of sharp deleveraging and deflation.

How do we avoid economic melt-down and oblivion?

The short answer is that we cant. Well more specifically we cant avoid things getting a lot worse at some point. As above doing "nothing" is a very good option all in all because a social and economic restructuring is needed before any sustainable growth can return. Since we have been living beyond our means for many years things will get a lot worse for a lot of people - it is unavoidable. QE doesn't create "wealth" because wealth is a function of productivity and injecting "free" money into the economy does not cause net gain in productivity * (this is the key think that our masters with their "play station" economic models fail to grasp).

* the reason why this is true is quite simple - if you give person 1 some free amount of money which they use buy goods/services from person 2 which causes person 2 to work harder resulting in a productivity increase PR1. However person 1, now feeling richer by virtue of the free money, demands a higher price for good services which he himself supplies thus reducing his productivity by PR-1. PR1 is canceled out by PR-1.

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The post to which you replied

No printing. = mass default.

I do wonder sometimes if you ever actually read posts.

no, cant see mass default anywhere.

I can foresee large banking crashes, but by and large, people wont default...why should they...unless they think they can get away with it?

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one of the best posts I've read on here in ages(and there's some good psots every day).

QE is utterly futile.It will have unintended consequneces.

The only real solution is to let the deleveraging occur.

Only problem is, if you do that too much asset prices (principally housing) will fall far enough that it will push all the idiot banks under again, and no government is going to be responsible for that because they don't dare let them fail again.

Unfortunately house prices will at best be allowed to unwind slowly, and in the mean time QE will prop up government spending and cheap credit availability. I really hope I'm wrong.. but I just can't realistically see it panning out any other way.

The best we can hope for is that instead of wasting the money on non-productive jobs, most of it will go to encouraging investment in productive parts of the economy (without being simply invested overseas or into pointless speculative bubbles). But perhaps I'm naive..

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I've already proposed that several times.. (Although it was more '£20k for everyone, must be used to repay mortgage/student/unsecured debt before you get to see any as cash'). You'd have to hike interest rates and impose lending restrictions (for mortgages/unsecured) at the same time to contain the resultant inflation, but I haven't seen a killer blow for this idea. So far..

Because it would cause big inflation much quicker than giving it to the banks. By giving it to the banks they just sit on it most of it, feeling rich and laughing at the rest of us. Their problems are gone, it's merely become everyone else's problem.

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Because it would cause big inflation much quicker than giving it to the banks. By giving it to the banks they just sit on it most of it, feeling rich and laughing at the rest of us. Their problems are gone, it's merely become everyone else's problem.

What if.........

Banks get 200bn of qe money to offset house prices falling wiping 200bn off banks balance sheets?

Is that not a possible outcome? Who would win, who would lose?

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What if.........

Banks get 200bn of qe money to offset house prices falling wiping 200bn off banks balance sheets?

Is that not a possible outcome? Who would win, who would lose?

Not impossible I guess.

My "fag packet" calcs, I make the UK housing stock to be worth about 5.3 Trillion Pounds (£5,300 Million)

So I presume you would actually need to print £530 billion for every 10% drop you wanted to offset.

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Not impossible I guess.

My "fag packet" calcs, I make the UK housing stock to be worth about 5.3 Trillion Pounds (£5,300 Million)

So I presume you would actually need to print £530 billion for every 10% drop you wanted to offset.

QE is to provide liquidity....are banks illiquid again? are stocks about to fall? the gamble: will they and stocks rise, or wont they, and stocks tumble.

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QE is to provide liquidity....are banks illiquid again? are stocks about to fall? the gamble: will they and stocks rise, or wont they, and stocks tumble.

True, but I presume that CVM is talking about simply monetising debt in order to allow the banks to stay solvent as their (housing) assets crash.

I'm not sure it's a good idea, but I guess technically it would be a possible way of allowing house prices to fall dramatically without bankrupting the banks..

[Edit to add: I'm making a bit of a silly error.. if the banks are international then an isolated crash in the UK market probably wouldn't effect them significantly anyway.. just any that are wholly exposed to UK MBS's. Unless it sparks global contagion again...!]

Edited by libspero

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True, but I presume that CVM is talking about simply monetising debt in order to allow the banks to stay solvent as their (housing) assets crash.

I'm not sure it's a good idea, but I guess technically it would be a possible way of allowing house prices to fall dramatically without bankrupting the banks..

of course, as money is just an accounting tool, then yes, printing can fix the books.

sadly, the economy is based on real wealth production....therefore, a thing that represents a portion of wealth, adjusted at whim, cures nothing.

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  • 150 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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