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Immigrant Driven Increase In Households Postpones The Crash

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"170. Professor Whitehead and Mr Sampson noted that immigration also impacts

on house prices, both directly through higher demand for houses by

immigrants and indirectly through boosting the buy-to-let market (Q 352).

Goldman Sachs have estimated that a 1% increase in the number of

households raises house prices by 8% in the short run for a given stock of

housing and by 6% once the house-building has responded to higher prices

over the longer term."

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200708/ldselect/ldeconaf/82/82.pdf

Households continue to grow in number and housebuilding does not meet demand. Rents and houseprices could easily continue to rise as demand increases evermore..

There would of course be an upper limit, but at what point might this be?

6 adults to a 3 bedroom home, all on average income with a mortgage equivalent to 24 times average income in the worst case scenario?

Communal workhouses on a mortgage?

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And the predicted.......

171. Professor Nickell, who advises the Government on affordable housing, said

that since 2000 the ratio of average house prices to average annual earnings

had risen from four to seven. If net immigration had been zero, house prices

would, according to Professor Nickell, still have risen to 6.5 times average

income (Q 49). Professor Nickell also forecast that, if the current rate of

house building is sustained for the next 20 years, house prices will rise to 9.3

times average income if there is zero net migration. But if there is 190,000

net immigration each year, house prices will rise to 10.5 times average

income—13% higher than they would be with zero migration (p 33).

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And the predicted.......

171. Professor Nickell, who advises the Government on affordable housing, said

that since 2000 the ratio of average house prices to average annual earnings

had risen from four to seven. If net immigration had been zero, house prices

would, according to Professor Nickell, still have risen to 6.5 times average

income (Q 49). Professor Nickell also forecast that, if the current rate of

house building is sustained for the next 20 years, house prices will rise to 9.3

times average income if there is zero net migration. But if there is 190,000

net immigration each year, house prices will rise to 10.5 times average

income—13% higher than they would be with zero migration (p 33).

And who will be buying these properties?

With money borrowed from ?!?

9.3 to 10.5 times average income. I don't think so!

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"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."

Professor Irving Fisher, Economist, Yale University, 1929

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And who will be buying these properties?

With money borrowed from ?!?

9.3 to 10.5 times average income. I don't think so!

There is a 6 bedroom house round the corner from me. It could sleep 12 rent payers easily. There is a high demand for housing, especially from A8 economic migrants, unlike others they can not claim housing benefit. They will sleep 2,3,4,5,6 to a room.

The rental yield increase massively.

The housing benefit rent yield for the property is £19000 for a mere 6 English doleys, the price of the property only 9 times that.

HMO's are increasingly common.

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There is a 6 bedroom house round the corner from me. It could sleep 12 rent payers easily. There is a high demand for housing, especially from A8 economic migrants, unlike others they can not claim housing benefit. They will sleep 2,3,4,5,6 to a room.

The rental yield increase massively.

The housing benefit rent yield for the property is £19000 for a mere 6 English doleys, the price of the property only 9 times that.

HMO's are increasingly common.

Why not?

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There is a 6 bedroom house round the corner from me. It could sleep 12 rent payers easily. There is a high demand for housing, especially from A8 economic migrants, unlike others they can not claim housing benefit. They will sleep 2,3,4,5,6 to a room.

The rental yield increase massively.

The housing benefit rent yield for the property is £19000 for a mere 6 English doleys, the price of the property only 9 times that.

HMO's are increasingly common.

Think that when we get to the level of poverty where that becomes a major factor affecting house prices you'll have trouble getting the imigrants to come here in the first place.

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With 5000 new people are settling here each week, another city with all the infrastructure of Birmingham is needed every 5.5 years. If you have ever driven around Birmingham you will notice how massive it is. As you say the HMO trend is inevitable. Slumification is immensely profitable.

The Conservative cap of 50,000 due to come in April 2011, only applies to non-EU skilled visa route migration, they cannot control EU migration having given control of our borders to the (unelected, unaccountable, undemocratic, elite etc...) EU. What is notable; they also have not clamped down on chain migration and student visas, which are the biggest single drivers of non-EU migration. So this tens of thousands slogan looks to be nonsense.

I am afraid to say the immigration cap is a fig leaf, which William Hague and Vince Cable is looking to undermine by having the EU rule on a free trade treaty which will mean UK open borders with the counterparty (India to start with). Hague and Cameron are also desperate for Turkey to join. I think this will happen within 5 years. That's 70 million muslim's whose massive numbers and impact will change our ways of life and culture far more than now through their sheer voting power.

There is a 6 bedroom house round the corner from me. It could sleep 12 rent payers easily. There is a high demand for housing, especially from A8 economic migrants, unlike others they can not claim housing benefit. They will sleep 2,3,4,5,6 to a room.

The rental yield increase massively.

The housing benefit rent yield for the property is £19000 for a mere 6 English doleys, the price of the property only 9 times that.

HMO's are increasingly common.

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Think that when we get to the level of poverty where that becomes a major factor affecting house prices you'll have trouble getting the imigrants to come here in the first place.

You could probably find half a billion people on the planet who'd consider that a step up from their current lives.

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Scary thing is how profitable it is to pack 12 immigrants into a former home of one British family. These BTL operators with big portfolios also have attained very high credit ratings, because of all the capital they have. So they get cheap interest rates too.

Realize when the house next to you goes for sale, likely a BTL person can outbid anyone for it.. and will stuff it with as many immigrants as they can.

The one British family has 1.5 maybe 2 full time income earners. But with cramming people into houses you can easily get 6, 7 even 8 income earners in there.

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With 5000 new people are settling here each week, another city with all the infrastructure of Birmingham is needed every 5.5 years.

bad stats

the conurbation of birmingham has a population of c. 13 million, yes bimingham is a big place.

we are not repeat not repeat not not repeat not repeat not not repeat not repeat not not repeat not repeat not not repeat not repeat not not repeat not repeat not not repeat not repeat not not repeat not repeat not not repeat not repeat not not repeat not repeat not not repeat not repeat not not repeat not repeat not getting 2.5 million immigrants a year

period.

edit: my bad, wee small hours and all that - make that 4 million, by the same token, we're not getting net 650,000 immigrants a year, nowhere near

Edited by Si1

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yep, everyone can pay 9 times income

its ALL down to supply and demand....

this guy is a professor...in what? legoland?

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With 5000 new people are settling here each week, another city with all the infrastructure of Birmingham is needed every 5.5 years. If you have ever driven around Birmingham you will notice how massive it is. As you say the HMO trend is inevitable. Slumification is immensely profitable.

The Conservative cap of 50,000 due to come in April 2011, only applies to non-EU skilled visa route migration, they cannot control EU migration having given control of our borders to the (unelected, unaccountable, undemocratic, elite etc...) EU. What is notable; they also have not clamped down on chain migration and student visas, which are the biggest single drivers of non-EU migration. So this tens of thousands slogan looks to be nonsense.

I am afraid to say the immigration cap is a fig leaf, which William Hague and Vince Cable is looking to undermine by having the EU rule on a free trade treaty which will mean UK open borders with the counterparty (India to start with). Hague and Cameron are also desperate for Turkey to join. I think this will happen within 5 years. That's 70 million muslim's whose massive numbers and impact will change our ways of life and culture far more than now through their sheer voting power.

another city with all the infrastructure of Birmingham is needed every 5.5 years

I think you have still underestimated with Birmingham having a massive 1 million pop. it will only take around 3 years at current growth.

@ 350,000 to 500,000 per year

Birmingham population 1,028,700 (2009 estimate),

I think you may have meant the whole of the west midlands with circa 11 million? or part of.

Whichever way you look at it the infastructure will break down at some point with land/house prices rising beyond the means of a growing percentage of the population.

It's worse than you think.

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Prices won't crash because there are way too many people willing to buy for BTL, let alone the pent up demand from FTB who have been waiting patiently.

UK is house obsessed, our population is ballooning and no one is building!

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I personally imagine there will be net eu migration next year, from mid-2011 the whole of the EU will open up to migrant labour and I imagine that Poles for example would prefer to work in Germany where conditions are better, wages are higher and they are of course much closer to their homes/families.

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Prices won't crash because there are way too many people willing to buy for BTL, let alone the pent up demand from FTB who have been waiting patiently.

UK is house obsessed, our population is ballooning and no one is building!

there are 5 developments within 3 miles of here.

I guess they arent building.

Local Authorities are still working to Government building targets...another 20,000 or so I beleive here in Colchester.

And just remind me which lenders are lending to BTL portfolio holders?

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Prices won't crash because there are way too many people willing to buy for BTL, let alone the pent up demand from FTB who have been waiting patiently.

UK is house obsessed, our population is ballooning and no one is building!

Housebuilders aren't building 'cos they haven't managed to shift much of what they puked-up for their last stock of 'executive' and 'luxury' homes. In many areas the government are buying up new builds on the cheap from the developers for pseudo social housing although lots of the crap is overlooked as it is considered of poor constuction.

Please, please, please I do not want to hear from anyone that there is a shortage of homes - where ? the only shortage is affordable homes and social housing. BTLers are not getting mortage rates better than 7-8% unless they are the 80s-90s sensible kind and then it's only that the banks can see where they are going to get their money back if/when the market goes belly-up and they are the ones least likely to dip their toe in.

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Prices won't crash because there are way too many people willing to buy for BTL, let alone the pent up demand from FTB who have been waiting patiently.

UK is house obsessed, our population is ballooning and no one is building!

oh dear. where do you start...

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there are 5 developments within 3 miles of here.

I guess they arent building.

Local Authorities are still working to Government building targets...another 20,000 or so I beleive here in Colchester.

And just remind me which lenders are lending to BTL portfolio holders?

I recall the stats over last decades say that any shortfall is slight, we pretty much are building enough, the problem is in the occupancy ratio

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With 5000 new people are settling here each week, another city with all the infrastructure of Birmingham is needed every 5.5 years. If you have ever driven around Birmingham you will notice how massive it is. As you say the HMO trend is inevitable. Slumification is immensely profitable.

The Conservative cap of 50,000 due to come in April 2011, only applies to non-EU skilled visa route migration, they cannot control EU migration having given control of our borders to the (unelected, unaccountable, undemocratic, elite etc...) EU. What is notable; they also have not clamped down on chain migration and student visas, which are the biggest single drivers of non-EU migration. So this tens of thousands slogan looks to be nonsense.

I am afraid to say the immigration cap is a fig leaf, which William Hague and Vince Cable is looking to undermine by having the EU rule on a free trade treaty which will mean UK open borders with the counterparty (India to start with). Hague and Cameron are also desperate for Turkey to join. I think this will happen within 5 years. That's 70 million muslim's whose massive numbers and impact will change our ways of life and culture far more than now through their sheer voting power.

It's early days yet but I'm starting to think that the Conservatives will increasingly find themselves phased out by a replacement right-wing.

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It's early days yet but I'm starting to think that the Conservatives will increasingly find themselves phased out by a replacement right-wing.

or rather, the right wing of the tories will splity off and find that nobody misses them

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  • 150 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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