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R I C S Survey September--MERGED


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HOLA441
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HOLA442
Mouseprice.com
Discounted property
Are you interested in snapping up a bargain? Below are properties for sale where the asking prices have been reduced - simply click on any property to find out more. Search for all reduced property near bn2 8ln by clicking here.
Address, Type, Beds, Price, Listed On,
Reduction
Wicklands Avenue Detached 4 £250,000 24-02-2010
12%
Chichester Close Flat 3 £180,000 27-07-2009
15%
Bevendean Avenue Detached 3 £245,000 27-04-2010
11%
Longridge Avenue Flat 1 £100,000 22-07-2010
29%
Withyham Avenue Detached 4 £350,000 09-09-2010
7%

One of the PCs I am looking at. Recent reductions tend to show a pattern of declining rather than plateauing prices. :D

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HOLA443

Anyone want to have a pop at the BBC's poor reporting and VI spin on this thread...? :rolleyes:

Yet another indicator pointing the way we expect.

Heaven forbid, no. After all, if you search for similar BBC articles earlier in the year (when it was positive), they always point out that the sample was ONLY 200 odd...

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HOLA444
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HOLA445

Timm, the ForexF calendar page you linked to was showing GMT -5.00 hours, with Daylight Savings Time enabled.

If you haven't already done so, you can fix this by using the 'Synchronize Time' option on the left of the page.

...although you may not want to if you're in the U.S of course. :)

Oho! Thahnk you!

I wondered why RPI / CPI was due at 04:30! ;)

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HOLA446

This survey isn't meant to be out until midnight, and the article is dated tomorrow - looks like a web spider grabbed it unexpectedly.

Citywire

Their best short term HP predictor is again very very stable, apparently for the third month in a row, surprisingly:

"Ratio of sales to unsold stocks on surveyors’ books" http://www.rics.org/site/download_feed.aspx?fileID=7605&fileExtension=PDF on the 3rd page.

At this level, it would lead to a very gentle HP decline.

The government and the banks could be releasing mortgage lending on a controlled way.

Edit: Remember the government indications to mortgage industry professionals, here: http://www.moneymarketing.co.uk/mortgages/coalition-ready-to-let-property-values-fall/1015197.article

I think they mean within this parliament, and real prices, partially or even mostly masked by inflation.

.

Edited by Tired of Waiting
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HOLA447

Nice bearish article on the BBC new website with some eas talking sense for a change:

Government austerity measures coupled with fears of unemployment and a genuine fear that house prices may well fall further is stifling the market
The general talk of cuts in government spending appears to have caused the fragile confidence in the property market to be shattered and this very much looks like we are heading for a double dip in the housing market

and

Our main problem is client expectation, with a large number of vendors in denial and very reluctant to reduce guide prices

Looks like the tide may finally be turning…

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11515818

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HOLA448

On what basis do they use the word 'only'? Does that make it statistically insignificant? Sadly, I don't think a statistician had any input into the use of the pejorative description of the report.

I'd have liked to see the words "estate agents" in italics, indicating that the 50% who saw no downward pressure were probably full of sh1t. They could put the word sh1t in bold or capitals, that would be up to their editor.

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HOLA449

They made more of an effort for their Scottish audience......

http://www.bbc.co.uk...otland-11519779

Scottish house price recovery 'ahead of UK'

Yep. The Scottish section of the BBC is 100% pure house price propoganda.

If you delve into a bit of the chat from RICS on the Scottish situation, the premise seems to be this.

Your house will be worth more - but you won't be able to sell it.

Right..................:rolleyes:

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HOLA4410

I almost put that too. :lol:

In fact I noticed that the sh1t factor was greatest in Scotland. Does this tally with the story on the ground for anyone up there?

The Scottish numbers are very strange.

RICS

When it comes to sales ? No other region in the UK has such a negative number. However when it comes to prices ? No other region in the UK has a positive number APART from Scotland :blink:

So sales are going to drop even lower than they are already, yet prices are going to rise ? Are they hoping for this lack of sellers to just continue propping up prices forever ?

Interesting thing I noticed on this page (6) though. The sales expectations are seasonally adjusted for all. HOWEVER the price expectations are seasonally adjusted for everywhere EXCEPT for Scotland. Could this be a reason for the randomness ?

In fact this is all very strange. Look at the price graph on the top left of page 5. Property prices for the last 3 months, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, are positive for Scotland. However if you look at the actual table on page 6, Scotland has a negative balance of -8%.

So in September, a generally busier month for sales than Aug or Oct, they seasonally adjusted the prices up the way from a negative to a positive ?!:blink:

Surely the opposite should happen ?

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HOLA4411

The Scottish numbers are very strange.

RICS

When it comes to sales ? No other region in the UK has such a negative number. However when it comes to prices ? No other region in the UK has a positive number APART from Scotland :blink:

So sales are going to drop even lower than they are already, yet prices are going to rise ? Are they hoping for this lack of sellers to just continue propping up prices forever ?

Interesting thing I noticed on this page (6) though. The sales expectations are seasonally adjusted for all. HOWEVER the price expectations are seasonally adjusted for everywhere EXCEPT for Scotland. Could this be a reason for the randomness ?

In fact this is all very strange. Look at the price graph on the top left of page 5. Property prices for the last 3 months, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, are positive for Scotland. However if you look at the actual table on page 6, Scotland has a negative balance of -8%.

So in September, a generally busier month for sales than Aug or Oct, they seasonally adjusted the prices up the way from a negative to a positive ?!:blink:

Surely the opposite should happen ?

It tells me that the sweaty socks are the most in denial - not surprising really, they love to think that their market is different and more resilient than the rest of the UK.

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HOLA4412
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HOLA4413

It tells me that the sweaty socks are the most in denial - not surprising really, they love to think that their market is different and more resilient than the rest of the UK.

I really don't know what the difference is between an EA and a CS. In my part of the World many EAs and CSs are both. To my mind that means they are VIs.

I am going to throw some others in now - FBI, MFI, B&Q, TTFN.

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HOLA4414

Anyone want to have a pop at the BBC's poor reporting and VI spin on this thread...? :rolleyes:

Yet another indicator pointing the way we expect.

I tried pointing out to them once that expensive houses getting more expensive was bad. They didn't seem to be able to get their head around that idea, so I doubt they'll manage this.

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HOLA4415

It tells me that the sweaty socks are the most in denial - not surprising really, they love to think that their market is different and more resilient than the rest of the UK.

Yep

And that has been about 3 years now. You would think they would eventually give up.

The Media up here really has to be experienced to be believed.

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HOLA4416

Three overriding themes in the surveyor comments this month:

  • Acute lack of first time buyers. More needs to be done on the funding side to raise LTV ratios so that FTBs can buy without a large deposit.
  • Impending government spending cuts are making buyers extremely cautious.
  • Negative media commentary is damaging the market. The papers should shut up as they are scaring off potential purchasers.
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HOLA4417
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HOLA4418

Anyone want to have a pop at the BBC's poor reporting and VI spin on this thread...? :rolleyes:

Yet another indicator pointing the way we expect.

Here’s the BBC Scotland statement on the latest RICS survey (a cut'n'paste story about a group of people who want prices to rise hoping that they will rise):

Scotland bucks UK trend with property price rise

12 Oct 2010

Scotland’s house prices have risen over the last three months and further hikes are expected before the end of the year, putting the country completely at odds with the rest of the UK’s housing market, claims a report published today.

In Scotland 10% more chartered surveyors reported a gain in house prices compared to those in other parts of the UK.

The findings in the latest housing market survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) suggested prices will continue to buck the national trend of a weakening property market in the next three months.

Scotland was the only region where more surveyors were anticipating increases, according to the survey, which sought the views of 265 members of the profession across the UK.

It leaves homeowners hoping to sell property over the coming months in a dilemma, with the positive price expectations not matched by optimism for sales.

However, sales expectations are down, which perhaps signals potential homebuyers are postponing purchases until the full extent of Government cuts are announced.

Graeme Hartley, director, Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors

The survey found Scottish surveyors were more negative about the state of the market than any other part of the UK, with 19% more predicting a fall in sales compared to those who expect them to rise.

While homeowners might see the healthiest growth in the value of their property over the next three months, according to the chartered surveyors polled, they are also least likely to be able to shift their house.

Graeme Hartley, director of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, said: “Demand for property in Scotland rose sharply in the past month and with new instructions rising at a slower rate, surveyors have reported a rise in price expectations.

“However, sales expectations are down, which perhaps signals potential homebuyers are postponing purchases until the full extent of Government cuts are announced.”

Rics said the number of Scottish surveyors reporting rising transaction levels is also at a six-month high, with 24% more noticing a jump in newly agreed sales, up from 13% in August.

Scotland was second only to south-west England with 23% more surveyors reporting a rise in new buyers during September, than those who reported a fall in the last quarter.

A similar survey in August found that a majority of 12% had reported a drop in interest from new buyers.

Despite the overall positive picture, the views of surveyors in Scotland seemed mixed.

Craig Henderson, of Glasgow-based Graham & Sibbald, said: “The market is showing signs of a recovery after a sluggish summer. But the large deposits required by first time buyers as a result of restrictions in lending criteria continues to dampen the sector. The introduction of home reports mean first-time buyers no longer have to meet the cost of a survey and this is helping to ease the market.”

Chris Highton, of Selkirk-based Allied Surveyors Scotland, said: “The usual increase in activity after the summer doesn’t seem to have materialised. My instinct is that the majority of people who would have looked to purchase in the autumn will wait until spring before considering a move.”

…and here’s the BBC Scotland statement on the latest Halifax -3.6% drop (the biggest recorded quantifiable MoM drop yet):

edit: add link (only one, though)

Edited by Captain Cavey
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HOLA4419

Here’s the BBC Scotland statement on the latest RICS survey (a cut'n'paste story about a group of people who want prices to rise hoping that they will rise):

…and here’s the BBC Scotland statement on the latest Halifax -3.6% drop (the biggest recorded quantifiable MoM drop yet):

edit: add link (only one, though)

:lol:

The BBC are beyond a joke. The govt. should show some balls and privatise it. Now.

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HOLA4420

Idiots, they could have chose one of the following correct answers:

Temporary dip, but expected to rise SOON;

1. There is pent up demand from cash rich investors.

2. There is pent up demand from first time buyers with large deposits.

3. Russian, Saudi and Chinese billionaires want to hoover up properties.

4. Immigration, UK population is expected to reach 70,000,000 / 70 M I L L I O N

5. 2012 Olympics...... yadda yadda ya

You missed out the words 'snapped up' - keep up at the back... <_<

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HOLA4421
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HOLA4422

Yes, I noticed how very high up on that chart, the ratio of properties on the books were, in Wales.

Good to hear you sounding a bit more positive MT. :)

Thanks - I took some sinutab.

There is a noticeable slowing down of property coming on the market in my part of the World.

I was chatting to an EA late last week about the Halifax figures and asked what the reaction had been from sellers. I got one word - "Panic!".

But when I enquired more the EA told me that sellers had been pushing them to promote their houses rather than sellers coming in and wanting to drop prices.

At which point a seller came in trying to sell his Mum's house and when he found out that I was a potential buyer he did the hard sell on me - alas, he wanted 175K for a house that there are numerous other identical ones on the market for 125K to 150K top... and he admitted his Mum's house needed modernising. Berk! Greedy so and so.

Having said that, there have been some noticeable price drops in the past week but not as many as I would have expected. Roll on October 20th.

Surely the ratio of properties on books compared t so few sales and so few viewings/interested buyers has to result in an eventual toppling. That chart in the report looks as if it could and should topple over any moment. I do hope so.

Edited by The Masked Tulip
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HOLA4423

Thanks - I took some sinutab.

There is a noticeable slowing down of property coming on the market in my part of the World.

I was chatting to an EA late last week about the Halifax figures and asked what the reaction had been from sellers. I got one word - "Panic!".

But when I enquired more the EA told me that sellers had been pushing them to promote their houses rather than sellers coming in and wanting to drop prices.

At which point a seller came in trying to sell his Mum's house and when he found out that I was a potential buyer he did the hard sell on me - alas, he wanted 175K for a house that there are numerous other identical ones on the market for 125K to 150K top... and he admitted his Mum's house needed modernising. Berk! Greedy so and so.

Having said that, there have been some noticeable price drops in the past week but not as many as I would have expected. Roll on October 20th.

Surely the ratio of properties on books compared t so few sales and so few viewings/interested buyers has to result in an eventual toppling. That chart in the report looks as if it could and should topple over any moment. I do hope so.

My favourite quote of the ones I've read :-

Michael Joyce MRICS, Cooper & Tanner,

Frome, Somerset, 01373 405060 - My

From office has just had the best summer

(May - August) in my 22 years in the town.

The reason is we have focused on

accurate pricing and price reductions.

Quite simply if a house has been on for

two months with no sale, then a 10%

reduction is required (and again 2 months

later).

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HOLA4424

My favourite quote of the ones I've read :-

Michael Joyce MRICS, Cooper & Tanner,

Frome, Somerset, 01373 405060 - My

From office has just had the best summer

(May - August) in my 22 years in the town.

The reason is we have focused on

accurate pricing and price reductions.

Quite simply if a house has been on for

two months with no sale, then a 10%

reduction is required (and again 2 months

later).

Great find.

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HOLA4425

I really don't know what the difference is between an EA and a CS. In my part of the World many EAs and CSs are both. To my mind that means they are VIs.

I am going to throw some others in now - FBI, MFI, B&Q, TTFN.

Its getting a bit puzzling now though - OK some RICS surveyors are EAs, but surely RICS as a whole needs to provide accurate data.

If it kept massaging the figures to show level prices when they are real sustained drops, they will eventually have to publish a drop much worse that it is to re-align and would never be taken seriously again.

And in any case surely EAs have to move on and start talking about property having no short term prospects for improvement, otherwise transactions will stop completely. They do have a living to make.

Finally the RICS guy on the radio this morning - so anxious to re-assure that we won't see houseprices cut.

Why? Why does is he so convinced that most people find the prospect of significant reductions frightening? Surely only a small minority of people with large loans and reduced income would actually be frightened.

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