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R I C S Survey September--MERGED

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This survey isn't meant to be out until midnight, and the article is dated tomorrow - looks like a web spider grabbed it unexpectedly.

Citywire

House prices have continued to fall, weighed down by an increasing supply of homes on the market, a survey of surveyors shows.

The proportion of surveyors reporting falling house prices grew for the third month in a row, with 44% reporting a fall in September. Just 6% reported a rise and the remainder said that prices had been static.

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), which surveys its members each month, found that 22% more chartered surveyors reported a rise rather than a fall in new instructions, up from 12% in August. While there is a lack of buyers, increasing numbers of homeowners are testing the market ahead of further public spending cuts or a possible deterioration in the economy.

However this picture varies dramatically if broken down by region. RICS’ data shows that the East and West Midlands are the two areas with the highest proportion of surveyors reporting falling house prices over the past three months. The North and Scotland stand at the other end of the scale, although the balance was still negative (more surveyors reporting a fall than a rise).

Overall, the survey appears to tally with results from the Halifax which last week reported a record 3.6% drop in house prices for September. The Halifax report coincided with a warning from the International Monetary Fund that UK house prices could be set to drop.

However, RICS spokesperson, Ian Perry added: ‘Many areas are reporting a correction rather than dramatic falls in prices and vendors who are prepared to be realistic with pricing are still able to achieve a sale.’

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This survey isn't meant to be out until midnight, and the article is dated tomorrow - looks like a web spider grabbed it unexpectedly.

Citywire

Nice one FT, though I see ForexF had it down for tonight:

http://www.forexfact...om/calendar.php

*actually reads report*

Gosh, a balance of -44 is a lot. Down from -32 last month...

Edited by Timm

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Brilliant thanks for that. -44% is good I wonder how that compares to 08?

Overall, the survey appears to tally with results from the Halifax which last week reported a record 3.6% drop in house prices for September.

Brilliant :)

I remember a rics survey from Febuary I think it was, I'd got the dates wrong and was refreshing the rics release page at 11am it came up with the survey so I copied a quote and posted here but when I clicked the link a few minutes later it was gone and wasn't due for release until the next day.

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Not sure -44% is the balance. The article says that 44% reported falling and 6% rising prices. That would give 38%.

Also, these are presumably the non-seasonally adjusted numbers. In Sept there's normally a significant upward seasonal adjustment (i.e. a negative balance is revised down a few points), so we'll still have to wait for a bit to find out the headline SA figure.

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...I wonder how that compares to 08?

Sept 08 was in a different league. Only 1% of surveyors reported rising prices, with 91% saying prices were falling. The net balance was reduced to -84.2 after seasonal adjustment.

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Thanks. Strangely the October rightmove survey, which covers most of September still managed a 1.1% rise in 2008.

Edited by Pent Up

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Not sure -44% is the balance. The article says that 44% reported falling and 6% rising prices. That would give 38%.

Also, these are presumably the non-seasonally adjusted numbers. In Sept there's normally a significant upward seasonal adjustment (i.e. a negative balance is revised down a few points), so we'll still have to wait for a bit to find out the headline SA figure.

September 09 the NSA figures were 31 rise, 15 fall, +16 balance

The SA balance was +22

So we're probably looking at -32

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Sept 08 was in a different league. Only 1% of surveyors reported rising prices, with 91% saying prices were falling. The net balance was reduced to -84.2 after seasonal adjustment.

Worth bearing in mind though that by sep 08, momentum had really built. I would say we're roughly at the equivalent stage to dec 07 ie a couple of months past the turning point, so surely we should be comparing these figures to then.

Added figures for comparable periods below:

Proportion of surveyors reporting a rise, fall or

no change in house prices over the last three months (SA)

July 07: +12.6

Aug 07: -3.1

Sept 07: -15.6

Oct 07: -23.9

Nov 07: -40.3

Dec 07: -49.1

vs

Jun 10: +8

July 10: -8

Aug 10: -32

Sep 10: -38

Note the similarities between the beginning of HPC1 and HPC2 in terms of how quickly the momentum begun to change....

Edited by NEO72

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Nice one FT, though I see ForexF had it down for tonight:

Timm, the ForexF calendar page you linked to was showing GMT -5.00 hours, with Daylight Savings Time enabled.

If you haven't already done so, you can fix this by using the 'Synchronize Time' option on the left of the page.

...although you may not want to if you're in the U.S of course. :)

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Timm, the ForexF calendar page you linked to was showing GMT -5.00 hours, with Daylight Savings Time enabled.

If you haven't already done so, you can fix this by using the 'Synchronize Time' option on the left of the page.

...although you may not want to if you're in the U.S of course. :)

Thanks FT for an early peep of the RICS report.

And thanks for the hint on the Forex time reset. I have just reset mine.

It makes a lot more sense now. ;)

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Forexfactory says balance -36

Report doesn't seem to be available yet

Thanks. I see a number of sources now quoting -36, down from -32 last month.

The report is usually posted on the RICS website the following working day (i.e. later this morning).

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Asking prices are moving down at pace in the last month round us in North East even before the public sector job losses properly kick in. Moreover a lot of property seems to be coming on the market at a time that is tradtionally very thin round here on new instructions. Property on the market for 2 to 3 years is being cut by 10% to 15% rather than 2% to 4% previously seen. None seems to be selling.

This is NR's home stomping ground (s'cuse the pun) so there will be some serious gearing out there.

Every time I go on Rightmove or walk past and EA I hear Stukas in my head (WW2 german dive bombers with a wailing dive horn for those who are not students of historic military hardware) and its not the medication!

I await October house price reports with baited breath!

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Timm, the ForexF calendar page you linked to was showing GMT -5.00 hours, with Daylight Savings Time enabled.

If you haven't already done so, you can fix this by using the 'Synchronize Time' option on the left of the page.

Thanks!

*insert blushing smiley*

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Sept 08 was in a different league. Only 1% of surveyors reported rising prices, with 91% saying prices were falling. The net balance was reduced to -84.2 after seasonal adjustment.

In the SE is was -100% iirc. It was about -93% before SA and the SA should have been about -10 so they put it as -100. That was about nov08 iirc.

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BBC: House prices heading for a fall, surveyors warn

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11515818

House prices are still under downward pressure as sellers continue to outnumber potential buyers.

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) said 44% of its members saw prices fall in the past three months.

Only 6% reported that prices rose, while 50% said they had been stable.

The figures highlight the picture painted by other recent surveys, which have shown prices drifting down in recent months.

Rics spokesperson Ian Perry said it was "very much" a buyers' market.

"First-time buyers are in particularly short supply as the high deposits required by lenders prevent them from taking their first steps on the property ladder," he said.

"Without sufficient demand, property prices continue to slip back.

"However, many areas are reporting a correction, rather than dramatic falls in prices, and vendors who are prepared to be realistic with pricing are still able to achieve a sale," he added.

'Tap turned off'

The Rics survey covered only 265 members who work as estate agents.

Continue reading the main story

“Start Quote

Our main problem is client expectation, with a large number of vendors in denial and very reluctant to reduce guide prices”

End Quote Carl Eastwood Ipswich

But the survey traditionally has its finger on the pulse of the market.

Several respondents fingered the forthcoming cuts in public spending for undermining the confidence of potential buyers.

"The overall trend is edging towards reductions in property prices, as buyers become increasingly nervous of the economic climate," said Edward Waterson of Carter Jonas in York.

Derek Coates of Venmore in Liverpool was more forthright.

"Government austerity measures coupled with fears of unemployment and a genuine fear that house prices may well fall further is stifling the market," he said.

Peter May of Minster Property in Wimborne said the market had acted as if a tap had been turned off.

"The general talk of cuts in government spending appears to have caused the fragile confidence in the property market to be shattered and this very much looks like we are heading for a double dip in the housing market," he said.

Other surveyors pointed to the continued effect of widespread mortgage rationing by lenders.

"The real problem in the market is first-time buyers' inability to obtain mortgages, thus putting a brake on their ambitions to own property," said Stuart Allan of Broadley & Coulson in Bishop Auckland.

Carl Eastwood from Ipswich highlighted cited a traditional obstacle to quick sales.

"Our main problem is client expectation, with a large number of vendors in denial and very reluctant to reduce guide prices," he said.

Land shortage

The availability of land is a key factor in changes to house prices, separate work by researchers at the London School of Economics has found.

Those saving up to buy a house in areas where residential developments were restricted needed larger down-payments relative to their income, the report said.

These people ended up having to save up for longer and bought a home later in life. They might also face higher rental prices in the meantime.

"The research illustrates how constraints on the supply of land can have major implications for household welfare through their effect on house prices and individual home ownership," said Dr Alex Michaelides, who led the research.

The report suggested that relaxing borrowing restraints added to ownership levels, but had little impact on house prices.

The work was funded by the Economic and Social Research Council, which is primarily funded by the Department for Business.

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Idiots, they could have chose one of the following correct answers:

Temporary dip, but expected to rise SOON;

1. There is pent up demand from cash rich investors.

2. There is pent up demand from first time buyers with large deposits.

3. Russian, Saudi and Chinese billionaires want to hoover up properties.

4. Immigration, UK population is expected to reach 70,000,000 / 70 M I L L I O N

5. 2012 Olympics...... yadda yadda ya

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Idiots, they could have chose one of the following correct answers:

Temporary dip, but expected to rise SOON;

1. There is pent up demand from cash rich investors.

2. There is pent up demand from first time buyers with large deposits.

3. Russian, Saudi and Chinese billionaires want to hoover up properties.

4. Immigration, UK population is expected to reach 70,000,000 / 70 M I L L I O N

5. 2012 Olympics...... yadda yadda ya

They made more of an effort for their Scottish audience......

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-11519779

Scottish house price recovery 'ahead of UK'

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"First-time buyers are in particularly short supply as the high deposits required by lenders prevent them from taking their first steps on the property ladder," he said.

But, but, but.. I thought BTL landlords were buying up all of the FTB property?

Shurely you can't be serious?

:huh:

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Listening to R4 on this and an EA/RICS shill said that the market was flattening out and the disparity in the indices was an anonomaly.

This flattening out, or "plateau" theory was made famous by the Uber EA in the US, David "Mr. Plateau" Lereah. Famous now for his desperate predictions in the run up of the greatest property crash in history such as:

2008
7. “Over the next few months, existing-home sales are expected to hold fairly steady as indicated by pending sales activity, then rise later in the year and continue to improve in 2009.”

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/index.php?name=News&file=article&sid=11924' rel="external nofollow">
– National Association of Realtors, January 2008.
Sales Statistics " Campbell & West San Jose Real Estate ...
David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, said the housing market has reached a new plateau. " Over the last few years, it's become apparent that the ...
zangerteam.wordpress.com/category/sales-​statistics - 80k - Cached

When a market is crashing the EAs seem to like to use words like "consolidating," "flattening," and even "plateauing." The reality is that markets rarely move sideways for any measurable period--especially in the case of highly speculative commodities such as tulip bulbs and houses.

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Anyone want to have a pop at the BBC's poor reporting and VI spin on this thread...? :rolleyes:

Yet another indicator pointing the way we expect.

Have you heard Radio 4 Today Program this morning? They reported it, but unfortunately the "minimised" it a lot, like "prices kind of stable" "nothing to see here", etc. It should go on-line soon. I think I heard it between 7 and 7:30.

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  • 245 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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