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The Post -3.6% Blues

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I don’t know about you, but after all of the flurry attached to the mega dip in the Halifax HPI measure, I seem to be suffering from some sort of withdrawal whereby nothing else I read can satisfy, or is good enough to fill the elation gap left by THAT news !!

I’m also feeling much more impatient than before about buying for some reason. I was rolling along quite ‘happily’ beforehand – now I’m on Rightmove all the time looking for £30k reductions etc.

What’s going on – any psycho mind specialist types out there who can explain all this?

Anyone else feeling it ?!

:huh:

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Call me a cynic but that was my exact thought when I saw the 3.6% drop......

Yes, and the media will be all over it.

2% rise in a MONTH, fill your boots!

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The Nationwide index will be out before the next Halifax. Since they were -0.1% last month maybe their big drop will happen this month. ;)

Plus we've got a new CPI number tomorrow. Maybe that will have gone up and bring closer the day base rates rise. :)

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Looking ahead at the Forex Factory, there's a RICS sentiment report out tomorrow. Next week is a Rightmove survey. After that comes Nationwide's latest figures at the end of the month.

If, big if, these all go our way then it could be a very interesting month.

Hang on in there.

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It's going to get worse mate when it raises +2% next month off the back of that big drop.

Really hope not but can see it happening :unsure:

That would be disasterous as far as our mental health is concerned !!

I guess we just need to sit tight and know that things really have turned, regardless of the small rises or dips between now and about Feb 2012 (earliest time to to even think of buying?)

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Looking ahead at the Forex Factory, there's a RICS sentiment report out tomorrow. Next week is a Rightmove survey. After that comes Nationwide's latest figures at the end of the month.

If, big if, these all go our way then it could be a very interesting month.

Hang on in there.

Plus comprehensive spending review, big visible austerity arguments, housing benefit changes kicking in.

Have felt for a long while that this month will set the tone for the whole of 2011.

If we have a bit of a damp squib going into Christmas then I will really be on the 'long slow decline' view, and will probably give up and buy.

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That would be disasterous as far as our mental health is concerned !!

I guess we just need to sit tight and know that things really have turned, regardless of the small rises or dips between now and about Feb 2012 (earliest time to to even think of buying?)

I think it's important not to get in such a mindset of a specific timeframe, but to keep checking the areas you want to buy. I'm actually looking at a place now which has ben reduced after a month on the market by 15%. It looks like an old dear who has popped her clogs and so the family want to sell. If I put in an offer of another 10% off, so around 25% from initial asking price, then even with 10% year on year falls, this would be negated by what we would have spent annually on rent and I would only need 5 year mortgage and it would be paid off (could just stretch to it with cash, but would prefer to keep half so I still have a contingency fund and could buy again in teh future without having to sell first) Plus the saving rate would offset the mortage rate by a couple of percent and who knows, could even rise in the future!

You buy when it adds up financially for you. I doubt they will accept a figure of 10% further off, but you never know. I don't need to buy, they need to sell. And if someone comes in and buys it at a higher price so what? Other opportunities will come along.

So be looking all the time, you never know what might come up!!

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Yes, and the media will be all over it.

2% rise in a MONTH, fill your boots!

Surely not - they'll probably play down the m-o-m figure, focus instead on the neg 3m-o-3m and explain away such a high monthly increase to 'volatility' ;-)

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Looking ahead at the Forex Factory, there's a RICS sentiment report out tomorrow. Next week is a Rightmove survey. After that comes Nationwide's latest figures at the end of the month.

If, big if, these all go our way then it could be a very interesting month.

Hang on in there.

The problem with the various indices is that they all measure different things.

Nationwide & Halifax only cover mortgaged properties, but with Halifax there's a northern bias hence lower prices. Land Registry is all sales, but excluding new properties and auctions/repos - plus of course a 3-6 month lag in the sales.

Rightmove is the "apirational" asking prices and leads sales of course.

The others have a mix of all these factors.

To me the most realistic is LR - for all used prices. Problem is the time lag.

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The problem with the various indices is that they all measure different things.

Nationwide & Halifax only cover mortgaged properties, but with Halifax there's a northern bias hence lower prices. Land Registry is all sales, but excluding new properties and auctions/repos - plus of course a 3-6 month lag in the sales.

Rightmove is the "apirational" asking prices and leads sales of course.

The others have a mix of all these factors.

To me the most realistic is LR - for all used prices. Problem is the time lag.

Yes - you are right. BUT if the correction we all believe is fundamentally inevitable and overdue is actually upon us this time, then all these indices will need to start reflecting this, as was the case in the second half of '08.

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Yes - you are right. BUT if the correction we all believe is fundamentally inevitable and overdue is actually upon us this time, then all these indices will need to start reflecting this, as was the case in the second half of '08.

AAAAhhhh !!

Just imagine - all the "stars" in perfect aligntment....with every indice including LR showing negative numbers......

How satisfying would that feel ?

B)

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I don’t know about you, but after all of the flurry attached to the mega dip in the Halifax HPI measure, I seem to be suffering from some sort of withdrawal whereby nothing else I read can satisfy, or is good enough to fill the elation gap left by THAT news !!

This is nothing, those who were taking a hit during the real Bear days will never get that same high again where a 63% fall in RBS was a base line that kept up for months.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=101512

House prices were falling so fast they'd hit zero within a year, nothing like that is going to happen soon.

Edited by northwestsmith2

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I think it's important not to get in such a mindset of a specific timeframe, but to keep checking the areas you want to buy. I'm actually looking at a place now which has ben reduced after a month on the market by 15%. It looks like an old dear who has popped her clogs and so the family want to sell. If I put in an offer of another 10% off, so around 25% from initial asking price, then even with 10% year on year falls, this would be negated by what we would have spent annually on rent and I would only need 5 year mortgage and it would be paid off (could just stretch to it with cash, but would prefer to keep half so I still have a contingency fund and could buy again in teh future without having to sell first) Plus the saving rate would offset the mortage rate by a couple of percent and who knows, could even rise in the future!

You buy when it adds up financially for you. I doubt they will accept a figure of 10% further off, but you never know. I don't need to buy, they need to sell. And if someone comes in and buys it at a higher price so what? Other opportunities will come along.

So be looking all the time, you never know what might come up!!

When I read the above I thought I am was reading my own post until I realised that I have not yet ever posted on HPC although have been looking at it for some time.

I am exactly in the same mindset as Flaps, I have began looking at houses, offering 15-20% off and maybe I will get lucky some day. I don't need to buy just yet (although would like to) so am not under any pressure (the mrs is pressuring me though...). I too have a large deposit and could probably cover 100% of price but will be keeping 50% for rainy days and aim at repaying over 5-6yrs. Am currently looking at a 5 yrs fixed firstdirect deal at 4.19% letting me overpay monthly and lump sums too.

All the best to you all, I too am a bot depressed about all this and amazed at how long this farce has been going on...

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When I read the above I thought I am was reading my own post until I realised that I have not yet ever posted on HPC although have been looking at it for some time.

I am exactly in the same mindset as Flaps, I have began looking at houses, offering 15-20% off and maybe I will get lucky some day. I don't need to buy just yet (although would like to) so am not under any pressure (the mrs is pressuring me though...). I too have a large deposit and could probably cover 100% of price but will be keeping 50% for rainy days and aim at repaying over 5-6yrs. Am currently looking at a 5 yrs fixed firstdirect deal at 4.19% letting me overpay monthly and lump sums too.

All the best to you all, I too am a bot depressed about all this and amazed at how long this farce has been going on...

50% of the price of a house as 'rainy day' money? 70-80 grand? Sure you're not thinking of a nice cheap little BTL to start the portfolio when prices crash....?

Edited by juvenal

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When I read the above I thought I am was reading my own post until I realised that I have not yet ever posted on HPC although have been looking at it for some time.

I am exactly in the same mindset as Flaps, I have began looking at houses, offering 15-20% off and maybe I will get lucky some day. I don't need to buy just yet (although would like to) so am not under any pressure (the mrs is pressuring me though...). I too have a large deposit and could probably cover 100% of price but will be keeping 50% for rainy days and aim at repaying over 5-6yrs. Am currently looking at a 5 yrs fixed firstdirect deal at 4.19% letting me overpay monthly and lump sums too.

All the best to you all, I too am a bot depressed about all this and amazed at how long this farce has been going on...

Wow, that really is a pretty similar scenario! It's nice to have a bit of company :)

Best of luck with it all Frenchy. Like you, I can't believe it has gone on so long, but having lept the powder dry for so long, would be a real shame to dampen it at this late stage, so just ensure you don't get too emotionally attached to a particular place and you should be fine.

Also, thanks for the info on the first direct deal, I will look into that one too.

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50% of the price of a house as 'rainy day' money? 70-80 grand? Sure you're not thinking of a nice cheap little BTL to start the portfolio when prices crash....?

I didn't read it like that at all.....

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When r read the above r thought r am was reading my own piss until r realised that r have not yet ever pisted on HPC although have been licking at it for some time.

r am exactly in the same mindset as Flips, r ave began licking at horses, offering 15-20% if and maybe I will get licky some day. I don't need to buy gizz yet (although would lick to) so am not under any fissure (the mooses is pressing my thong...). rI too have a large deposit and could probably cover 100% of ***** but will be keeping 50% for brawny boys and aim at repissing over 5-6yards. Am currently licking at a 5 yrs fixed firstdirect meal at 4.19% letting me overpiss monthly and lumpy cums too.

All the best to you all, I too am a bot depressed about all this and amuzed at how long this farce has been going on...

rene

welcome and I am pleased to translatorise for you.

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50% of the price of a house as 'rainy day' money? 70-80 grand? Sure you're not thinking of a nice cheap little BTL to start the portfolio when prices crash....?

I happen to have 50,000GBP earning 4.5% tax free so there is no point using this.

I don't know how long a rainy day may last anyway, last it rained it was for 18 months (although did not try very hard to make the sun shine again). Besides I now have 2 kids to keep dry as well...

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Because of the staggered nature of the various indexes there will be plenty more negatives to come over the next few months.

I'd imagine nationwide would be negative this month and then in 2 months there will be the LR figures with their 3 month lag.

Add to this mix the spending review on Oct 20th and I don't think the bulls will have much to cheer about for a long time

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I happen to have 50,000GBP earning 4.5% tax free so there is no point using this.

I don't know how long a rainy day may last anyway, last it rained it was for 18 months (although did not try very hard to make the sun shine again). Besides I now have 2 kids to keep dry as well...

Fair enough.

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This is def the smart money thread IMO pateintly waiting for the prices too fall knowing for months and months that they must come down and now its happening, your patience will be well rewarded. as will mine :D

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It's going to get worse mate when it raises +2% next month off the back of that big drop.

Really hope not but can see it happening :unsure:

So that would be a net -1.6% fall over two months, or around 10%pa falls when annualised.

And that's a "worst case" scenario where the index actually RISES next month.

There will be statistical noise, so an "up" month is quite possible, but the trend is clear to me.

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  • 145 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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